两种实用的洪灾损失频率分析方法
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摘要
为了提高洪灾损失频率分析方法的计算精度、速度和可操作性,利用基于信息扩散理论的风险分析方法和基于实数编码的遗传算法确定参数估计的频率分析法(PⅢ曲线)对洪灾损失频率进行分析,前者弥补了观测样本信息不足的缺陷,而后者克服了传统配线法精度低的缺点,体现了遗传算法的全局寻优能力.实例证明,这两种方法思路清晰,操作简单、通用性强、速度快、精度高,对防洪减灾均具有较好的指导作用.并可推广到其它灾情的风险分析,如气象、地震等.
In order to improve the speed,accuracy and operability,the method of risk analysis based on information diffuse theory and the method of frequency analysis based on real coding based on accelerating genetic algorithm by which parameters of PersonⅢ curve were estimated were tried to be used to analyze the inundation loss frequency was analyzed.The former method makes good the fault that lacking of enough observation data;then the latter one overcomes the defect that traditional methods have low accuracy,embodies the capability of whole optimization.The example demonstrates these two methods are clear thinking,easy and quick to operate,high commonality and accuracy.The two methods can guide to prevent flood and to reduce natural disasters.They were also used in other risk analysis,for example,weather,earthquake,and so on.
In order to improve the speed,accuracy and operability,the method of risk analysis based on information diffuse theory and the method of frequency analysis based on real coding based on accelerating genetic algorithm by which parameters of PersonⅢ curve were estimated were tried to be used to analyze the inundation loss frequency was analyzed.The former method makes good the fault that lacking of enough observation data;then the latter one overcomes the defect that traditional methods have low accuracy,embodies the capability of whole optimization.The example demonstrates these two methods are clear thinking,easy and quick to operate,high commonality and accuracy.The two methods can guide to prevent flood and to reduce natural disasters.They were also used in other risk analysis,for example,weather,earthquake,and so on.
引文
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[3]黄崇福,刘新立,周国贤,等.以历史灾情资料为依据的农业自然灾害风险评估方法[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):1-8.HUANG CHONGFU,LIU XINLI,ZHOU GUOXIAN,ET AL.AGRICULTURAL NATURAL DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD ACCORDING TO THE HISTORICDISASTER DATA[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS,1998,7(2):1-8.
[4]FU Q,FU H.APPLYING PPE MODEL BASED ON RAGA IN THE INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING OF WATER SAVING IRRIGATION PROJECT[J].NATUREAND SCIENCE,2003,1(1):57-58.
[5]FU Q,LU T G,FU H.APPLYING PPE MODEL BASED ON RAGA TO CLASSIFY AND EVALUATE SOIL GRADE[J].CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE,2002,12(2):136-141.
[6]王新洲.基于信息扩散原理的估计理论、及其抗差性[J].武汉测绘科技大学学报,1999,24(3):240-244.WANG XINZHOU.THE THEORY,METHOD ROBUSTNESS OF THE PARAMETER ESTIMATION BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE OF INFORMATION SPREAD[J].JOURNAL OFWUHAN TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF SURVEYING AND MAPPING,1999,24(3):240-244.
[7]冯利华.基于信息扩散理论的气象要素风险分析[J].气象科技,2000,(1):27-29.FENG LIHUA.RISK ANALYSIS ON METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS BASED ON THE INFORMATION DIFFUSE THEORY[J].METEOROLOGICAL SCIENCE ANDTECHNOLOGY,2000,(1):27-29.
[8]冯利华,程归燕.基于信息扩散理论的地震风险评估[J].地震学刊,2000,20(1):20-22.FENG LIHUA,CHENG GUIYAN.SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON INFORMATION DIFFUSE THEORY[J].JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY,2000,20(1):20-22.
[2]黄崇福,王家鼎.模糊信息优化处理技术及其应用[M].北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1995,42-64.HUANG CHONGFU,WANG JIADING.FUZZY INFORMATION OPTIONAL PROCESSING TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS[M].BEIHANG PRESS UNIVERSITY,1995,42-64.
[3]黄崇福,刘新立,周国贤,等.以历史灾情资料为依据的农业自然灾害风险评估方法[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):1-8.HUANG CHONGFU,LIU XINLI,ZHOU GUOXIAN,ET AL.AGRICULTURAL NATURAL DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD ACCORDING TO THE HISTORICDISASTER DATA[J].JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS,1998,7(2):1-8.
[4]FU Q,FU H.APPLYING PPE MODEL BASED ON RAGA IN THE INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING OF WATER SAVING IRRIGATION PROJECT[J].NATUREAND SCIENCE,2003,1(1):57-58.
[5]FU Q,LU T G,FU H.APPLYING PPE MODEL BASED ON RAGA TO CLASSIFY AND EVALUATE SOIL GRADE[J].CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE,2002,12(2):136-141.
[6]王新洲.基于信息扩散原理的估计理论、及其抗差性[J].武汉测绘科技大学学报,1999,24(3):240-244.WANG XINZHOU.THE THEORY,METHOD ROBUSTNESS OF THE PARAMETER ESTIMATION BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE OF INFORMATION SPREAD[J].JOURNAL OFWUHAN TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF SURVEYING AND MAPPING,1999,24(3):240-244.
[7]冯利华.基于信息扩散理论的气象要素风险分析[J].气象科技,2000,(1):27-29.FENG LIHUA.RISK ANALYSIS ON METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS BASED ON THE INFORMATION DIFFUSE THEORY[J].METEOROLOGICAL SCIENCE ANDTECHNOLOGY,2000,(1):27-29.
[8]冯利华,程归燕.基于信息扩散理论的地震风险评估[J].地震学刊,2000,20(1):20-22.FENG LIHUA,CHENG GUIYAN.SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON INFORMATION DIFFUSE THEORY[J].JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY,2000,20(1):20-22.
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