基于计算实验的公众恐慌研究初探
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摘要
结合社会学、心理学的知识,讨论现有相关公众恐慌的研究内容。在计算实验理论、Agent建模技术等信息技术的基础上,提出并讨论了利用计算实验来进行公众恐慌研究的几个问题:如何为进行公众恐慌研究建立一套恐慌信息传播人工系统来进行计算实验;如何通过计算实验数据对公众恐慌进行动态度量等。
Based on the computational methods of experiments and agent modeling technology,and combining sociology and psychology,the paper presents the method of computational experiments for research of Urban Mass Panic(UMP).It proposes a panic-information transmitting artificial system for computational experiments with agent modeling technology.The system consists of two kinds of agents: social individual agents and panic alarming agents.Social individual agents are designed to simulate persons living in the common human society.These agents which contain the ability of panic information recognition,reflection and making different decisions are simulated with some nonlinear methods,such as fuzzy neural network.Panic alarming agents are designed to simulate circumstance which engenders panic information or panic phenomenon.These agents collect information about panic and release information to social individual agents by different transmitting methods we can imagine.The paper also discusses how to dynamically carry through measurement to check the level of UMP by the information entropy theory.
Based on the computational methods of experiments and agent modeling technology,and combining sociology and psychology,the paper presents the method of computational experiments for research of Urban Mass Panic(UMP).It proposes a panic-information transmitting artificial system for computational experiments with agent modeling technology.The system consists of two kinds of agents: social individual agents and panic alarming agents.Social individual agents are designed to simulate persons living in the common human society.These agents which contain the ability of panic information recognition,reflection and making different decisions are simulated with some nonlinear methods,such as fuzzy neural network.Panic alarming agents are designed to simulate circumstance which engenders panic information or panic phenomenon.These agents collect information about panic and release information to social individual agents by different transmitting methods we can imagine.The paper also discusses how to dynamically carry through measurement to check the level of UMP by the information entropy theory.
引文
[1]王飞跃.计算实验方法与复杂系统行为分析和决策评估[J].系统仿真学报,2004(5):893-897.
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[6]王二平,张本波,陈毅文,史伟.心理科学进展[J].2003,11(4):363-367.
[7]顾方琦.地震谣言产生的根源及其对策原则[J].灾害学,1988(4):33-37.
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[10]王飞跃.人工社会、计算实验、平行系统——关于复杂社会经济系统计算研究的讨论[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2004(10):25-35.
[11]缪青海,汤淑明,王飞跃.基于对等计算的人工交通系统设计[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006(12):83-90.
[12]蔡游飞,曾宪钊.基于计算实验的复杂作战系统研究方法[J].系统仿真学报,2005(9):2239-2243.
[2]林秉贤.社会心理学[M].北京:群众出版社,1985:354.
[3]巢乃鹏,黄娴.网络传播中的“谣言”现象研究[J].情报理论与实践,2004,27(6):586-589,575.
[4]胡钰.大众传播效果[M].北京:新华出版社,2000.
[5]刘洋,陈安.应急管理中的心理应激机理研究[J].应急管理汇刊,2008(6):93-96.
[6]王二平,张本波,陈毅文,史伟.心理科学进展[J].2003,11(4):363-367.
[7]顾方琦.地震谣言产生的根源及其对策原则[J].灾害学,1988(4):33-37.
[8]洪时中.关于制止地震谣言的几个问题[J].四川地震,1983(1):31-37.
[9]李铭禄,陈安.“城市公众恐慌”的度量模型及其应用研究[J].应急管理汇刊,2007(8):5-17.
[10]王飞跃.人工社会、计算实验、平行系统——关于复杂社会经济系统计算研究的讨论[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2004(10):25-35.
[11]缪青海,汤淑明,王飞跃.基于对等计算的人工交通系统设计[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2006(12):83-90.
[12]蔡游飞,曾宪钊.基于计算实验的复杂作战系统研究方法[J].系统仿真学报,2005(9):2239-2243.
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