未确知测度模型在岩爆烈度分级预测中的应用
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摘要
针对岩爆烈度分级预测评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,应用未确知测度理论并结合工程实际,根据岩爆的特点及成因,选取最大切应力σθ、单轴抗压强度σc、单轴抗拉强度σt及岩石的弹性能量指数Wet,并以应力系数σθ/σc、岩石脆性系数σc/σt及弹性能量指数Wet作为岩爆烈度分级的评价指标,建立岩爆烈度分级预测的未确知测度评价模型。以国内外18组工程岩爆分析初始数据进行分级判别,根据实际情况建立各评价因子的未确知测度函数,对其进行定量分析,并利用熵计算各评价指标的权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最后得出岩爆烈度分级预测的评价结果。并与模糊综合评判法、属性综合评判法、灰色聚类法、物元分析法及实际情况的结果进行比较。为进一步考察该模型的有效性与实用性,运用该模型对秦岭隧道工程的岩爆实例进行分析。研究结果表明:该模型判别预测结果与实际岩爆情况较吻合,且方法科学合理,意义明确,为岩爆烈度分级预测提供一种新思路。
Based on the unascertained measurement theory and the actual characteristics of the project,an unascertained measurement classifying model to predict the possibility and classification of rockburst is established.Firstly,the main factors of rockburst,such as the maximum tangential stress of the cavern wall σθ,uniaxial compressive strength σc,uniaxial tensile strength σt,and the elastic energy index of rock Wet,are taken into account in the analysis.Three factors,the stress coefficient of rock σθ/σc,the brittleness coefficient of rock σc/σt and the elastic energy index of rock Wet are taken into account from the aspects of the causes of rockburst and its characteristics in the analysis,according to the unascertained factors of classification prediction of rockburst.Then the unascertained measurement function is obtained based on the initial data for the analysis of the rockburst of eighteen rock projects around the world.The problems of uncertain factors in classification prediction of rockburst are solved by qualitative analysis.The index weights of all factors are calculated using entropy theory.Finally,the evaluation results of the prediction and classification of rockburst are obtained on the basis of the rule of incredible recognition.It indicates that the unascertained measurement assessment results agree well with the actual records,and are consistent with those of the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method,the attribute synthetic evalution method,the grey optimization model and the matter-elements method.Therefore,the feasibility of the proposed model is validated.Furthermore,a case of Qinling tunnel is analyzed by using the proposed method in order to study the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.The results show that the prediction results agree well with the practical records,which prove that the unascertained measurement model is effective and available,and can be applied to the prediction for the possibility and classification of rockburst in underground engineering.
Based on the unascertained measurement theory and the actual characteristics of the project,an unascertained measurement classifying model to predict the possibility and classification of rockburst is established.Firstly,the main factors of rockburst,such as the maximum tangential stress of the cavern wall σθ,uniaxial compressive strength σc,uniaxial tensile strength σt,and the elastic energy index of rock Wet,are taken into account in the analysis.Three factors,the stress coefficient of rock σθ/σc,the brittleness coefficient of rock σc/σt and the elastic energy index of rock Wet are taken into account from the aspects of the causes of rockburst and its characteristics in the analysis,according to the unascertained factors of classification prediction of rockburst.Then the unascertained measurement function is obtained based on the initial data for the analysis of the rockburst of eighteen rock projects around the world.The problems of uncertain factors in classification prediction of rockburst are solved by qualitative analysis.The index weights of all factors are calculated using entropy theory.Finally,the evaluation results of the prediction and classification of rockburst are obtained on the basis of the rule of incredible recognition.It indicates that the unascertained measurement assessment results agree well with the actual records,and are consistent with those of the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method,the attribute synthetic evalution method,the grey optimization model and the matter-elements method.Therefore,the feasibility of the proposed model is validated.Furthermore,a case of Qinling tunnel is analyzed by using the proposed method in order to study the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.The results show that the prediction results agree well with the practical records,which prove that the unascertained measurement model is effective and available,and can be applied to the prediction for the possibility and classification of rockburst in underground engineering.
引文
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[5]文畅平.属性综合评价系统在岩爆发生和烈度分级中的应用[J].工程力学,2008,25(6):153-158.(WEN Changping.Application of attribute synthetic evaluation system in prediction of possibility and classification of rockburst[J].Engineering Mechanics,2008,25(6):153-158.(in Chinese))
[6]丁向东,吴继敏,李健,等.岩爆分类的人工神经网络预测方法[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(4):424-427.(DING Xiangdong,WU Jimin,LI Jian,et al.Artificial neural network for forecasting and classification of rockbursts[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Science),2003,31(4):424-427.(in Chinese))
[7]CHEN H J,LI N H,NIE D X.Prediction of rockburst by artificial neural network[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2003,22(5):762-768.
[8]白明洲,王连俊,许兆义.岩爆危险性预测的神经网络模型及应用研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2002,12(4):65-69.(BAI Mingzhou,WANG Lianjun,XU Zhaoyi.Study of a neural network model and its application to predicting the risk of rockburst[J].China Safety Science Journal,2002,12(4):65-69.(in Chinese))
[9]葛启发,冯夏庭.基于AdaBoost组合学习方法的岩爆分类预测研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(4):943-948.(GE Qifa,FENG Xiating.Classification and prediction of rockburst using AdaBoost combination learning method[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(4):943-948.(in Chinese))
[10]姜彤,黄志全,赵彦彦.动态权重灰色归类模型在南水北调西线工程岩爆风险评估中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(7):1104-1108.(JIANG Tong,HUANG Zhiquan,ZHAO Yanyan.Dynamically weighted grey optimization model for rockburst risk forecasting and its application to Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(7):1104-1108.(in Chinese))
[11]谢学斌,潘长良.岩爆灾害的灰类白化权函数聚类预测方法[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,34(8):16-20.(XIE Xuebin,PAN Changliang.Rockburst prediction method based on grey winterization weigh function cluster theory[J].Journal of Hunan University(Natural Science),2007,34(8):16-20.(in Chinese))
[12]宫凤强,李夕兵.岩爆发生和烈度分级预测的距离判别方法及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(5):1012-1018.(GONG Fengqiang,LI Xibing.A distance discriminant analysis method for prediction of possibility and classification of rockburst and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(5):1012-1018.(in Chinese))
[13]熊孝波,桂国庆,许建聪,等.可拓工程方法在地下工程岩爆预测中的应用[J].解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,8(6):695-701.(XIONG Xiaobo,GUI Guoqing,XU Jiancong,et al.Application of extension method to prediction of rockburst of underground engineering[J].Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science),2007,8(6):695-701.(in Chinese))
[14]赵洪波.岩爆分类的支持向量机方法[J].岩土力学,2005,26(4):642-644.(ZHAO Hongbo.Classification of rockburst using support vector machine[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2005,26(4):642-644.(in Chinese))
[15]祝云华,刘新荣,周军平.基于v-SVR算法的岩爆预测分析[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(3):277-281.(ZHU Yunhua,LIU Xinrong,ZHOU Junping.Rockburst prediction analysis based on v-SVR algorithm[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2008,33(3):277-281.(in Chinese))
[16]杨涛,李国维.基于先验知识的岩爆预测研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2000,19(4):429-431.(YANG Tao,LI Guowei.Study of rockburst prediction method based on the prior knowledge[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2000,19(4):429-431.(in Chinese))
[17]谷明成,何发亮,陈成宗.秦岭隧道岩爆的研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(9):1324-1329.(GU Mingcheng,HE Faliang,CHEN Chengzong.Study of rockburst in Qingling Tunnel[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(9):1324-1329.(in Chinese))
[18]王光远.论未确知性信息及其数学处理[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(4):52-58.(WANG Guangyuan.Uncertainty information and its mathematical treatment[J].Journal of Harbin Architecture and Engineering Institute,1990,23(4):52-58.(in Chinese))
[19]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.膨胀土胀缩等级分类的未确知均值聚类方法及应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2008,39(5):1075-1080.(DONG Longjun,LI Xibing,GONG Fengqiang.Unascertained average clustering method for classification of grade of shrink and expansion for expansive soils and its application[J].Journal of Central South University(Natural Science),2008,39(5):1075-1080.(in Chinese))
[20]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.开采地面沉陷预测的未确知聚类预测模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2008,19(2):95-99.(DONG Longjun,LI Xibing,GONG Fengqiang.Predicting surface subsidence induced by mining based on unascertained clustering method[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2008,19(2):95-99.(in Chinese))
[21]宫凤强,李夕兵,董陇军,等.基于未确知测度理论的采空区危险性评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(2):323-330.(GONG Fengqiang,LI Xibing,DONG Longjun,et al.Underground goaf risk evaluation based on uncertainty measurement theory[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(2):323-330.(in Chinese))
[22]董陇军,王飞跃.基于未确知测度的边坡地震稳定性综合评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(4):74-78.(DONG Longjun,WANG Feiyue.Comprehensive evaluation on seismic stability of slopes based on unascertained measurement[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2007,18(4):74-78.(in Chinese))
[23]DONG L J,PENG G J,FU Y H,et al.Unascertained measurement classifying model of goaf collapse prediction[J].Journal of Coal Science and Engineering,2008,14(2):221-224.
[24]曹庆奎,刘开展,张博文.用熵计算客观型指标权重的方法[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2000,17(3):40-42.(CAO Qingkui,LIU Kaizhan,ZHANG Bowen.Calculation method of objective index weight by entropy[J].Journal of Hebei Institute of Architectural Science and Technology,2000,17(3):40-42.(in Chinese))
[25]程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),1997,33(1):12-20.(CHENG Qiansheng.Attribute recognition theoretical model with application[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,1997,33(1):12-20.(in Chinese))
[2]FENG X T,WEBBER S,OZBAY M U,et al.An expert system on assessing rockburst risks for South African deep gold mines[J].Journal of Coal Science and Engineering,1996,2(2):23-32.
[3]王元汉,李卧东,李启光,等.岩爆预测的模糊数学综合评判方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1998,17(5):493-501.(WANG Yuanhan,LI Wodong,LI Qiguang,et al.Method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluations for rockburst prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1998,17(5):493-501.(in Chinese))
[4]刘章军,袁秋平,李建林.模糊概率模型在岩爆烈度分级预测中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(增1):3095-3103.(LIU Zhangjun,YUAN Qiuping,LI Jianlin.Application of fuzzy probability model to prediction of rockburst intensity[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(Supp.1):3095-3103.(in Chinese))
[5]文畅平.属性综合评价系统在岩爆发生和烈度分级中的应用[J].工程力学,2008,25(6):153-158.(WEN Changping.Application of attribute synthetic evaluation system in prediction of possibility and classification of rockburst[J].Engineering Mechanics,2008,25(6):153-158.(in Chinese))
[6]丁向东,吴继敏,李健,等.岩爆分类的人工神经网络预测方法[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2003,31(4):424-427.(DING Xiangdong,WU Jimin,LI Jian,et al.Artificial neural network for forecasting and classification of rockbursts[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Science),2003,31(4):424-427.(in Chinese))
[7]CHEN H J,LI N H,NIE D X.Prediction of rockburst by artificial neural network[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2003,22(5):762-768.
[8]白明洲,王连俊,许兆义.岩爆危险性预测的神经网络模型及应用研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2002,12(4):65-69.(BAI Mingzhou,WANG Lianjun,XU Zhaoyi.Study of a neural network model and its application to predicting the risk of rockburst[J].China Safety Science Journal,2002,12(4):65-69.(in Chinese))
[9]葛启发,冯夏庭.基于AdaBoost组合学习方法的岩爆分类预测研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(4):943-948.(GE Qifa,FENG Xiating.Classification and prediction of rockburst using AdaBoost combination learning method[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(4):943-948.(in Chinese))
[10]姜彤,黄志全,赵彦彦.动态权重灰色归类模型在南水北调西线工程岩爆风险评估中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(7):1104-1108.(JIANG Tong,HUANG Zhiquan,ZHAO Yanyan.Dynamically weighted grey optimization model for rockburst risk forecasting and its application to Western Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2004,23(7):1104-1108.(in Chinese))
[11]谢学斌,潘长良.岩爆灾害的灰类白化权函数聚类预测方法[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2007,34(8):16-20.(XIE Xuebin,PAN Changliang.Rockburst prediction method based on grey winterization weigh function cluster theory[J].Journal of Hunan University(Natural Science),2007,34(8):16-20.(in Chinese))
[12]宫凤强,李夕兵.岩爆发生和烈度分级预测的距离判别方法及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(5):1012-1018.(GONG Fengqiang,LI Xibing.A distance discriminant analysis method for prediction of possibility and classification of rockburst and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(5):1012-1018.(in Chinese))
[13]熊孝波,桂国庆,许建聪,等.可拓工程方法在地下工程岩爆预测中的应用[J].解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,8(6):695-701.(XIONG Xiaobo,GUI Guoqing,XU Jiancong,et al.Application of extension method to prediction of rockburst of underground engineering[J].Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science),2007,8(6):695-701.(in Chinese))
[14]赵洪波.岩爆分类的支持向量机方法[J].岩土力学,2005,26(4):642-644.(ZHAO Hongbo.Classification of rockburst using support vector machine[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2005,26(4):642-644.(in Chinese))
[15]祝云华,刘新荣,周军平.基于v-SVR算法的岩爆预测分析[J].煤炭学报,2008,33(3):277-281.(ZHU Yunhua,LIU Xinrong,ZHOU Junping.Rockburst prediction analysis based on v-SVR algorithm[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2008,33(3):277-281.(in Chinese))
[16]杨涛,李国维.基于先验知识的岩爆预测研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2000,19(4):429-431.(YANG Tao,LI Guowei.Study of rockburst prediction method based on the prior knowledge[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2000,19(4):429-431.(in Chinese))
[17]谷明成,何发亮,陈成宗.秦岭隧道岩爆的研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(9):1324-1329.(GU Mingcheng,HE Faliang,CHEN Chengzong.Study of rockburst in Qingling Tunnel[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2002,21(9):1324-1329.(in Chinese))
[18]王光远.论未确知性信息及其数学处理[J].哈尔滨建筑工程学院学报,1990,23(4):52-58.(WANG Guangyuan.Uncertainty information and its mathematical treatment[J].Journal of Harbin Architecture and Engineering Institute,1990,23(4):52-58.(in Chinese))
[19]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.膨胀土胀缩等级分类的未确知均值聚类方法及应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2008,39(5):1075-1080.(DONG Longjun,LI Xibing,GONG Fengqiang.Unascertained average clustering method for classification of grade of shrink and expansion for expansive soils and its application[J].Journal of Central South University(Natural Science),2008,39(5):1075-1080.(in Chinese))
[20]董陇军,李夕兵,宫凤强.开采地面沉陷预测的未确知聚类预测模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2008,19(2):95-99.(DONG Longjun,LI Xibing,GONG Fengqiang.Predicting surface subsidence induced by mining based on unascertained clustering method[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2008,19(2):95-99.(in Chinese))
[21]宫凤强,李夕兵,董陇军,等.基于未确知测度理论的采空区危险性评价研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(2):323-330.(GONG Fengqiang,LI Xibing,DONG Longjun,et al.Underground goaf risk evaluation based on uncertainty measurement theory[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(2):323-330.(in Chinese))
[22]董陇军,王飞跃.基于未确知测度的边坡地震稳定性综合评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(4):74-78.(DONG Longjun,WANG Feiyue.Comprehensive evaluation on seismic stability of slopes based on unascertained measurement[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2007,18(4):74-78.(in Chinese))
[23]DONG L J,PENG G J,FU Y H,et al.Unascertained measurement classifying model of goaf collapse prediction[J].Journal of Coal Science and Engineering,2008,14(2):221-224.
[24]曹庆奎,刘开展,张博文.用熵计算客观型指标权重的方法[J].河北建筑科技学院学报,2000,17(3):40-42.(CAO Qingkui,LIU Kaizhan,ZHANG Bowen.Calculation method of objective index weight by entropy[J].Journal of Hebei Institute of Architectural Science and Technology,2000,17(3):40-42.(in Chinese))
[25]程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),1997,33(1):12-20.(CHENG Qiansheng.Attribute recognition theoretical model with application[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,1997,33(1):12-20.(in Chinese))
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