汶川地震对四川及周边省区旅游业的影响
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摘要
依据本底趋势线理论和1997-2008年统计数据,从更高的时空分辨率上,完成了汶川地震对四川及其周边省区旅游业影响的分析,结果显示:①2008年5-12月地震共使四川入境旅游损失112.1万人,国内旅游损失4 410.7万人,损失率分别为61.4%和22.4%;②四川北部主要旅游景点旅游业损失惨重,各景点游客损失率均达到了67.0%以上,其中,九寨沟、都江堰游客损失量较大,分别为212.2万人和194.7万人;③四川周边省区入境旅游遭受了不同程度的冲击,其中,湖北、甘肃损失量最大,分别为35.1万人和26.9万人;各省区受地震影响时间存在较大差异,地震影响期以甘肃最长,其影响期将超过8个月;④2008年汶川地震对四川及其周边省区旅游业的影响,其游客损失量与客流量基数(本底值)成正比;游客损失率与2008年本底值(基数)成反比;损失量和损失率两者均与汶川地震烈度分布存在一定的正比关系,以汶川为中心大致成同心圆状分布。
Based on the theory of natural trend curve and statistical data of 1997-2008,the impact of Wenchuan earthquake to tourism of Sichuan and its neighboring province are analyzed.Results are as followed: ① Impacted by the earthquake,from May to December,2008 Sichuan's inbound tourism lost 1.121 million tourists,and the domestic tourism lost 44.107 million visitors.The loss rates were 61.4% and 22.4%.②The loss of main tourist places in northern Sichuan was huge.The loss rate of each place was more than 67.0%.The losses of Jiuzhaigou and Dujiangyan were larger,with the loss of 1.947 million and 2.122 million tourists.③ Impacts to tourism of Sichuan's neighboring provinces were different.Hubei and Gansu suffered the largest loss,the loss were 0.269 million tourists and 0.351 million tourists.The impact of the earthquake to different provinces lasted a different time.The impact of the earthquake to Gansu lasted the longest time,more than eight months.④The tourist loss is in a direct proportion to the base number of tourists(number of natural trend curve).Loss rate of tourists is in a direct proportional to the number of natural trend curve(base number of tourists).Both the loss rate and the loss volume are in a direct proportion to the distribution of Wenchuan earthquake's intensity.The distribution centered in Wenchuan is like a concentric circle.
Based on the theory of natural trend curve and statistical data of 1997-2008,the impact of Wenchuan earthquake to tourism of Sichuan and its neighboring province are analyzed.Results are as followed: ① Impacted by the earthquake,from May to December,2008 Sichuan's inbound tourism lost 1.121 million tourists,and the domestic tourism lost 44.107 million visitors.The loss rates were 61.4% and 22.4%.②The loss of main tourist places in northern Sichuan was huge.The loss rate of each place was more than 67.0%.The losses of Jiuzhaigou and Dujiangyan were larger,with the loss of 1.947 million and 2.122 million tourists.③ Impacts to tourism of Sichuan's neighboring provinces were different.Hubei and Gansu suffered the largest loss,the loss were 0.269 million tourists and 0.351 million tourists.The impact of the earthquake to different provinces lasted a different time.The impact of the earthquake to Gansu lasted the longest time,more than eight months.④The tourist loss is in a direct proportion to the base number of tourists(number of natural trend curve).Loss rate of tourists is in a direct proportional to the number of natural trend curve(base number of tourists).Both the loss rate and the loss volume are in a direct proportion to the distribution of Wenchuan earthquake's intensity.The distribution centered in Wenchuan is like a concentric circle.
引文
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[19]李锋.基于本底线的不同性质旅游危机事件影响比对研究——以中国4次旅游危机事件为例[J].旅游学刊,2009,24(4):73-78.[Li Feng.A Comparative Study on the Effect of Tourism CrisisEvents With Different Nature Based on Background Line-ACase Study ofFour Tourism Crisis Events in china[J].Tourism Tribune,2009,24(4):73-78.]
[2]冯海燕.“5.12”汶川大地震之后的四川旅游发展[J].山地学报,2008,26(5):81-87.[Feng Haiyan.“5.12”Wenchuan after theEarthquake in Sichuan of the Tourism[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2008,26(5):81-87.]
[3]Sparrow MA.Tourism Planning Model for Hallmark Events[A].In:Syme JB.The Planning and Evaluation of Hallmark Events Alders Hot[C].Avebury,1989:250-262.
[4]Khan,H.Asian Contagion:Impact on Singapore Tourism[J].Annals ofTourismResearch,2001,28(1):224-226.
[5]HuangJH,Min C HJ.Earthquake Devastationand Recoveryin Tourism:the Taiwan Case[J].Tourism Management,2002,23(2):145-154.
[6]Goodrich J S.September11,2001 Attacks on America:A Record of theImmediate Impacts and Reactionsinthe USATravel and TourismIndustry[J].Tourism Management,2002,23:573-580.
[7]孙刚.1989年中国旅游业发展及“6.4风波”的影响[J].旅游调研,1990,(5):24-30.[Sun Gang.Tourism Development in 1989 in Chinaandthe Influence of“6.4”Event[J].Tourism Research,1990,(5):24-30.]
[8]鞠文风.关于金融危机对去年中国旅游业影响情况的专题调查报告[J].旅游调研,1999,(11):35-38.[Ju Wenfeng.An Research onthe Influence of Financial Crisisto China’Tourisminthe Past Year[J].TourismResearch,1999,(11):35-38.]
[9]朱迎波,葛全胜,魏小安,等.SARS对中国入境旅游人数影响的研究[J].地理研究,2003,22(5):551-559.[ZhuYingbo,GeQuansheng,Wei Xiaoan,et al.A Study on the Effect of the SARSEpidemic onthe International Tourist Arrivals in China[J].GeographicalResearch,2003,22(5):551-559.]
[10]曾本祥,Carter R W,Delacy T.短期事件对旅游的影响:以中国SARS危机为例[J].桂林旅游高等专科学报,2005,16(2):30-39.[Zeng Benxiang,Carter R W,Delacy T.The Impact of Short-termCrises on Tourism:SARS epidemic in China[J].Journal of GuilinInstitute of Tourism,2005,16(2):30-39.]
[11]藉振年,周丰年.“非典”对旅游行业的影响及建议[J].旅游调研,2003(7):12-14.[Ji Zhennian,Zhou Fengnian.Influence ofSRAS Crisis to Tourismand Some Suggestions[J].Tourism Research,2003,(7):12-14.]
[12]魏小安,曾博伟.汶川地震后中国旅游形势分析与判断[J].旅游学刊,2008,23(8):14-18.[Wei Xiaoan,Zeng Bowei.An Analysisand Judgment of China’s TourismIndustry After Wenchuan Earthquake[J].TourismTribune,2008,23(8):14-18.]
[13]孙根年.我国境外旅游本底趋势线的建立及科学意义[J].地理科学,1998,18(5):442-448.[Sun Gennian.Foundation andSignificance of Background Trend Line of Tourists FromAbroadin China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,1998,18(5):442-448.]
[14]孙根年.我国6大境外客源市场旅游本底趋势线的建立及其科学意义[J].河南大学学报,1998,32(4):23-25.[SunGennian.Foundation and Significance of Tourism Background Trend-Line of Chinese 6 Major Tourism-Source-Countries[J].Journal ofHenan University(Natural Science),1998,32(4):23-25.]
[15]李锋,孙根年,基于旅游本底线法(TBLM)的旅游危机事件研究——以2003年“SARS”事件为例[J].人文地理,2006,(4):102-105.[LiFeng,Sun Gennian.Researchon Tourism Unexpected Crisis onthe Basis ofTourism-Background-Line Method(TBLM)-A Case Study of“SARS”Eventin 2003[J].Human Geography,2006,(4):102-105.]
[16]戴光全,保继刚,昆明世博会效应的定量估算:本底趋势线模型[J].地理科学,2007,27(3):426-433.[Dai Guangquan,BaoJigang.Quantitative Effects Assessments of Expo’99 Kunming:Model ofBackground Trend Line[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2007,27(3):426-433.]
[17]孙根年.我国6大境外客源市场旅游本底趋势线的建立[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,18(1):64-70.[Sun Gennian.Foundation of Tourism Background-Trend-Line of 6 Major Tourism-Source-Markets of China[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2000,18(1):64-70.]
[18]孙根年,马丽君.基于本底线的2008年北京奥运会客流量预测[J].地理研究,2008,27(1):65-74.[Sun Gennian,Ma Lijun.Forecast onthe Tourist-Generating Market of Beijing Olympic Games in2008 Based on Tourism Background Trend Line[J].GeographicalResearch,2008,27(1):65-74.]
[19]李锋.基于本底线的不同性质旅游危机事件影响比对研究——以中国4次旅游危机事件为例[J].旅游学刊,2009,24(4):73-78.[Li Feng.A Comparative Study on the Effect of Tourism CrisisEvents With Different Nature Based on Background Line-ACase Study ofFour Tourism Crisis Events in china[J].Tourism Tribune,2009,24(4):73-78.]
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