基于微震监测的5个指标及其在冲击地压预测中的应用
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摘要
为了提高煤矿冲击地压预测预报水平,借助地球物理知识,优选和完善了5个物理意义明确且具有应用价值的危险预测指标。采用R值评分法对这5个指标的预测效能进行了研究。实践表明,这5个指标具有较高的灵敏性,对冲击地压能够起到较好的预测效果。
For improving the level of prediction and evaluation of coal mine rockburst,with geophysical knowledge,selected and improved 5 risk forecasting indexes which has clear physical meaning and value of predicting burst.By the score method of R value,studied the prediction efficiency of the five indexes.Practice shows that the five indexes have a high sensitivity,and play a better prediction on the impact of pressure.
For improving the level of prediction and evaluation of coal mine rockburst,with geophysical knowledge,selected and improved 5 risk forecasting indexes which has clear physical meaning and value of predicting burst.By the score method of R value,studied the prediction efficiency of the five indexes.Practice shows that the five indexes have a high sensitivity,and play a better prediction on the impact of pressure.
引文
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[3]齐庆新,窦林名.冲击地压理论与技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2008.Qi Qingxin,Dou Linming.Rockburst theory and technology[M].Xuzhou:China University of Mining and Technology Press,2008.
[4]王存文,姜福兴,王平,等.煤柱诱发冲击地压的微震事件分布特征与力学机理[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(9):1 170-1 175.Wang Cunwen,Jiang Fuxing,Wang Ping,et al.Microseismic eventsdistribution characteristics and mechanical mechanisms of rockbursting induced by a coal pillar[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2009,34(9):1 170-1 175.
[5]姜福兴,苗小虎,王存文.构造控制型冲击地压的微地震监测预警研究与实践[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(6):900-904.Jiang Fuxing,Miao Xiaohu,Wang Cunwen.Predictig research andpractice of tectonic-controlled coal burst by microseism is monito-ring[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(6):900-904.
[6]李春睿,康立军,齐庆新,等.深部巷道围岩分区破裂与冲击地压关系初探[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(2):185-190.Li Chunrui,Kang Lijun,Qi Qingxin,et al.Probe into relationship be-tween zonal fracturing and rock burst in deep tunnel[J].Journal ofChina Coal Society,2010,35(2):185-190.
[7]李洪.冲击矿压前兆信息的混沌预测及模式识别研究[D].泰安:山东科技大学,2006.Li Hong.The research of chaotic prediction and pattern recognitionbased on omen information of rock burst[D].Tai’an:ShandongUniversity and Technology,2006.
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[9]马洪庆.华北地区几次大震前的b值异常变化[J].地球物理学报,1978,21(2):126-132.Ma Hongqing.Variations of the b-values before several large earth-quakes occurred in north China[M].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1978,21(2):126-132.
[10]中国地震局监测预报司.强地震中期预测新技术物理基础及其应用研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2008.Monitoring and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration Divi-sion.Strong earthquake forecast based on new technology and itsapplication of physical[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,2008.
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[15]赵得秀.地震探源与地震预报[M].西安:西北工业大学出版社,2007.Zhao Dexiu.Source detection and earthquake prediction[M].Xi’an:Northwestern Polytechnical University Press,2007.
[16]李志雄,陶本藻,Ponomarev A V.基于岩石声发射实验结果探讨地震活动状态变化的预测意义[J].地震,2007,27(3):10-19.Li Zhixiong,Tao Benzao,Ponomarev A V.Study on predictionmeaning of state variation of seismicity based on AE result[J].Earthquake,2007,27(3):10-19.
[17]朱传镇,王琳瑛.前震活动特征及其识别的研究[J].地球物理学报,1996,39(1):80-88.Zhu Chuanzhen,Wang Linying.Study on the characteristics of fore-shock and id identification[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1996,39(1):80-88.
[18]张国民,李丽,焦明若.我国地震预报研究近十年的发展与展望[J].地球物理学报,1997,(S1):3 321-3 324.Zhang Guomin,Li Li,Jiao Mingruo.Development in earthquakeprediction research during the last decade in china and its prospects[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1997,(S1):3 321-3 324.
[19]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.Lu Yuanzhong,Chen Zhangli,Wang Biquan,et al.Seismic methodsof earthquake prediction[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1985.
[20]王林瑛,陈学忠,朱传镇,等.地震活动性总体参量Rt及其在地震预测中应用的研究[J].地震,2006,26(2):54-65.Wang Linying,Chen Xuezhong,Zhu Chuanzhen,et al.Study on theintegrated parameter Rt of seismic activity and its application toearthquake prediction[J].Earthquake,2006,26(2):54-65.
[21]王炜,宋先月,刘峥,等.地震活动性的定量化及其在地震中短期预报中的应用[J].地震学刊,1998,12(4)1-9.Wang Wei,Song Xianyue,Liu Zheng,et al.Seismisity quantifica-tion and its application to medium short term earthquake prediction[J].Earthquake Press,1998,12(4):1-9.
[22]吴佳翼,曹学锋.全球地震活动性的定量研究(二)—1964至1983年全球6级以上地震活动的分析[J].地震学报,1987,12(3):146-168.Wu Jiayi,Cao Xuefeng.Quantitative studies of global seismicity(2)—discussion on global earthquakes(m≥6)from1964 to 1983[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1987,12(3):146-168.
[23]许绍.地震活动性预报地震方法[J].地震学报,1993,15(2):239-248.Xu Saoxie.Earthquake prediction method of seismic activity[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1993,15(2):239-248.
[2]潘立友.冲击地压前兆信息的可识别性研究及应用[D].泰安:山东科技大学,2003.Pan Liyou.Identification and application of omen information ofrockburst[D].Tai’an:Shandong University and Technology,2003.
[3]齐庆新,窦林名.冲击地压理论与技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2008.Qi Qingxin,Dou Linming.Rockburst theory and technology[M].Xuzhou:China University of Mining and Technology Press,2008.
[4]王存文,姜福兴,王平,等.煤柱诱发冲击地压的微震事件分布特征与力学机理[J].煤炭学报,2009,34(9):1 170-1 175.Wang Cunwen,Jiang Fuxing,Wang Ping,et al.Microseismic eventsdistribution characteristics and mechanical mechanisms of rockbursting induced by a coal pillar[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2009,34(9):1 170-1 175.
[5]姜福兴,苗小虎,王存文.构造控制型冲击地压的微地震监测预警研究与实践[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(6):900-904.Jiang Fuxing,Miao Xiaohu,Wang Cunwen.Predictig research andpractice of tectonic-controlled coal burst by microseism is monito-ring[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(6):900-904.
[6]李春睿,康立军,齐庆新,等.深部巷道围岩分区破裂与冲击地压关系初探[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(2):185-190.Li Chunrui,Kang Lijun,Qi Qingxin,et al.Probe into relationship be-tween zonal fracturing and rock burst in deep tunnel[J].Journal ofChina Coal Society,2010,35(2):185-190.
[7]李洪.冲击矿压前兆信息的混沌预测及模式识别研究[D].泰安:山东科技大学,2006.Li Hong.The research of chaotic prediction and pattern recognitionbased on omen information of rock burst[D].Tai’an:ShandongUniversity and Technology,2006.
[8]Gibowicz S J,Kijko A.矿山地震学引论[M].修济刚,译.北京:地震出版社,1996.Gibowicz S J,Kijko A.Introduction to mining seismology[M].XiuJigang translation.Beijing:Earthquake Press,1996.
[9]马洪庆.华北地区几次大震前的b值异常变化[J].地球物理学报,1978,21(2):126-132.Ma Hongqing.Variations of the b-values before several large earth-quakes occurred in north China[M].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1978,21(2):126-132.
[10]中国地震局监测预报司.强地震中期预测新技术物理基础及其应用研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2008.Monitoring and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration Divi-sion.Strong earthquake forecast based on new technology and itsapplication of physical[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,2008.
[11]刘正荣.刘正荣地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,2004.Liu Zhengrong.Approach to earthquake prediction of liu zhengrong[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,2004.
[12]王炜,庄昆元,宋俊高,等.测震学分析预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.Wang Wei,Zhuang Kunyuan,Song Jungao,et al.Seismometry anal-ysis and prediction methods[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1997.
[13]朱广生,陈传仁,桂志先.勘探地震学教程[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2005.Zhu Guangsheng,Chen Chuanren,Gui zhixian.Exploration seismol-ogy tutorial[M].Wuhan:Wuhan University Press,2005.
[14]Scholz C H.The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing inrock and it’s relation to earthquake[J].Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,1968,58,399-415.
[15]赵得秀.地震探源与地震预报[M].西安:西北工业大学出版社,2007.Zhao Dexiu.Source detection and earthquake prediction[M].Xi’an:Northwestern Polytechnical University Press,2007.
[16]李志雄,陶本藻,Ponomarev A V.基于岩石声发射实验结果探讨地震活动状态变化的预测意义[J].地震,2007,27(3):10-19.Li Zhixiong,Tao Benzao,Ponomarev A V.Study on predictionmeaning of state variation of seismicity based on AE result[J].Earthquake,2007,27(3):10-19.
[17]朱传镇,王琳瑛.前震活动特征及其识别的研究[J].地球物理学报,1996,39(1):80-88.Zhu Chuanzhen,Wang Linying.Study on the characteristics of fore-shock and id identification[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1996,39(1):80-88.
[18]张国民,李丽,焦明若.我国地震预报研究近十年的发展与展望[J].地球物理学报,1997,(S1):3 321-3 324.Zhang Guomin,Li Li,Jiao Mingruo.Development in earthquakeprediction research during the last decade in china and its prospects[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1997,(S1):3 321-3 324.
[19]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.Lu Yuanzhong,Chen Zhangli,Wang Biquan,et al.Seismic methodsof earthquake prediction[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1985.
[20]王林瑛,陈学忠,朱传镇,等.地震活动性总体参量Rt及其在地震预测中应用的研究[J].地震,2006,26(2):54-65.Wang Linying,Chen Xuezhong,Zhu Chuanzhen,et al.Study on theintegrated parameter Rt of seismic activity and its application toearthquake prediction[J].Earthquake,2006,26(2):54-65.
[21]王炜,宋先月,刘峥,等.地震活动性的定量化及其在地震中短期预报中的应用[J].地震学刊,1998,12(4)1-9.Wang Wei,Song Xianyue,Liu Zheng,et al.Seismisity quantifica-tion and its application to medium short term earthquake prediction[J].Earthquake Press,1998,12(4):1-9.
[22]吴佳翼,曹学锋.全球地震活动性的定量研究(二)—1964至1983年全球6级以上地震活动的分析[J].地震学报,1987,12(3):146-168.Wu Jiayi,Cao Xuefeng.Quantitative studies of global seismicity(2)—discussion on global earthquakes(m≥6)from1964 to 1983[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1987,12(3):146-168.
[23]许绍.地震活动性预报地震方法[J].地震学报,1993,15(2):239-248.Xu Saoxie.Earthquake prediction method of seismic activity[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1993,15(2):239-248.
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