小水电水工建筑物健康诊断灰色理论模型
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摘要
针对小水电系统安全评价中环境复杂、统计资料匮乏、信息不完整、指标不确定等问题,引入灰色理论对小水电水工建筑物进行健康诊断.从结构可靠度的安全性、适用性、耐久性角度出发,分析了影响小水电水工建筑物健康的主要指标因素.引入指标重要性分值概念,结合熵权理论,对传统的AHP法进行了改进.综合运用改进AHP法和专家评判法,构建了基于灰色理论的小水电水工建筑物健康诊断指标体系及评价模型.实例表明,该方法计算所得结果较客观、稳定,可为小水电站安全运行、除险加固提供参考.
Aimed at the problems of complex environment,rare statistical data,incomplete information,and uncertain indexes in small hydropower safety evaluation,the grey system theory was used in health diagnosis of hydraulic structures at small hydropower stations.Various indexes and factors influencing the hydraulic structure health were analyzed in terms of safety,applicability,and durability.The index importance value and entropy weight theory were used to improve the conventional analytical hierarchy process(AHP) method.Using the improved AHP method and expert adjudicate method,a diagnosis index system and an evaluation model for hydraulic structures health of small hydropower stations were developed based on the grey system theory.The case study results show that the model is effective and reasonable,and can be used for the reinforcement and safety operation of small hydropower.
Aimed at the problems of complex environment,rare statistical data,incomplete information,and uncertain indexes in small hydropower safety evaluation,the grey system theory was used in health diagnosis of hydraulic structures at small hydropower stations.Various indexes and factors influencing the hydraulic structure health were analyzed in terms of safety,applicability,and durability.The index importance value and entropy weight theory were used to improve the conventional analytical hierarchy process(AHP) method.Using the improved AHP method and expert adjudicate method,a diagnosis index system and an evaluation model for hydraulic structures health of small hydropower stations were developed based on the grey system theory.The case study results show that the model is effective and reasonable,and can be used for the reinforcement and safety operation of small hydropower.
引文
[1]吴中如.大坝的安全监控理论和试验技术[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009.
[2]李雷,王仁钟,盛金保,等.大坝风险评价与风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[3]蔡新,武颖利,郭兴文.混凝土坝及坝后式厂房整体地震响应分析[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2008,36(1):49-53.(CAIXin,WU Ying-li,GUO Xing-wen.Integral seismic response analysis of concrete dam and powerhouse at dam toe[J].Journal of HohaiUniversity:Natural Sciences,2008,36(1):49-53.(in Chinese))
[4]李洪煊,蔡新,徐锦才,等.考虑时变效应的水工金属结构安全风险评价模型[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2010,38(6):660-664.(LI Hong-xuan,CAI Xin,XU Jin-cai,et al.Safety risk assessment model of hydraulic metal structurals considering time-varyingeffect[J].Journal ofHohai University:Natural Sciences,2010,38(6):660-664.(in Chinese))
[5]苏怀智,顾冲时,吴中如.大坝工作性态的模糊可拓评估模型及应用[J].岩土力学,2006,27(12):2115-2121.(SU Hua-izhi,GU Chong-shi,WU Zhong-ru.Assessment model of dam behavior with fuzzy extension theory and its application[J].Rock and SoilMechanics,2006,27(12):2115-2121.(in Chinese))
[6]莫崇勋,董增川,麻荣永,等.“积分-一次二阶矩法”在广西澄碧河水库漫坝风险分析中的应用研究[J].水利发电学报,2008,27(2):44-49.(MO Chong-xun,DONG Zeng-chuan,MA Rong-yong,et al.Application study on overtopping risk analysis forGuangxi Chengbihe reservoir by integrate-FOSM method[J].Journal ofHydroelectric Engineering,2008,27(2):44-49.(in Chinese))
[7]陈守煜,柴春岭.区域水资源可持续利用评价的模糊可变评价方法[J].水利水电科技进展,2007,27(5):1-5.(CHEN Shou-yu,CHAI Chun-ling.Fuzzy variable assessment method for sustainable utilization of regionalwater resources[J].Advances in Science andTechnology of Water Resources,2007,27(5):1-5.(in Chinese))
[8]董玉文,任青文.高拱坝稳定安全度研究综述[J].水利水电科技进展,2006,26(5):78-82.(DONG Yu-wen,REN Qing-wen.Review on safety degree for stability of high arch dams[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2006,26(5):78-82.(in Chinese))
[9]吴威,郭兴文,王德信,等.荆江大堤安全度模糊综合评判方法研究[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2008,36(2):224-228.(WU Wei,GUO Xing-wen,WANG De-xin,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive method for evaluation of safety of Jingjiang dyke[J].Journal ofHohai University:Natural Sciences,2008,36(2):224-228.(in Chinese))
[10]聂学军,顾冲时,严良平,等.自适应模糊系统在大坝安全监测故障诊断中的应用[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2005,33(4):395-398.(NIE Xue-jun,GU Chong-shi,YAN Liang-ping,et al.Application of adaptive fuzzy system to fault auto-diagnosis in damsafety monitoring[J].Journal ofHohai University:Natural Sciences,2005,33(4):395-398.(in Chinese))
[11]朱伯芳.当前混凝土坝建设中的几个问题[J].水利学报,2009,40(1):1-9.(ZHU Bo-fang.On some problems in construction ofconcrete dams[J].Journal ofHydraulic Engineering,2009,40(1):1-9.(in Chinese))
[12]苏永华.岩土参数模糊隶属函数的构造方法及应用[J].岩土工程学报,2007,29(12):1772-1779.(SU Yong-hua.Constructingmethod of fuzzy membership function of geotechnical parameters and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2007,29(12):1772-1779.(in Chinese))
[13]SL258—2000水库大坝安全评价导则[S].
[14]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1987.
[2]李雷,王仁钟,盛金保,等.大坝风险评价与风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006.
[3]蔡新,武颖利,郭兴文.混凝土坝及坝后式厂房整体地震响应分析[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2008,36(1):49-53.(CAIXin,WU Ying-li,GUO Xing-wen.Integral seismic response analysis of concrete dam and powerhouse at dam toe[J].Journal of HohaiUniversity:Natural Sciences,2008,36(1):49-53.(in Chinese))
[4]李洪煊,蔡新,徐锦才,等.考虑时变效应的水工金属结构安全风险评价模型[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2010,38(6):660-664.(LI Hong-xuan,CAI Xin,XU Jin-cai,et al.Safety risk assessment model of hydraulic metal structurals considering time-varyingeffect[J].Journal ofHohai University:Natural Sciences,2010,38(6):660-664.(in Chinese))
[5]苏怀智,顾冲时,吴中如.大坝工作性态的模糊可拓评估模型及应用[J].岩土力学,2006,27(12):2115-2121.(SU Hua-izhi,GU Chong-shi,WU Zhong-ru.Assessment model of dam behavior with fuzzy extension theory and its application[J].Rock and SoilMechanics,2006,27(12):2115-2121.(in Chinese))
[6]莫崇勋,董增川,麻荣永,等.“积分-一次二阶矩法”在广西澄碧河水库漫坝风险分析中的应用研究[J].水利发电学报,2008,27(2):44-49.(MO Chong-xun,DONG Zeng-chuan,MA Rong-yong,et al.Application study on overtopping risk analysis forGuangxi Chengbihe reservoir by integrate-FOSM method[J].Journal ofHydroelectric Engineering,2008,27(2):44-49.(in Chinese))
[7]陈守煜,柴春岭.区域水资源可持续利用评价的模糊可变评价方法[J].水利水电科技进展,2007,27(5):1-5.(CHEN Shou-yu,CHAI Chun-ling.Fuzzy variable assessment method for sustainable utilization of regionalwater resources[J].Advances in Science andTechnology of Water Resources,2007,27(5):1-5.(in Chinese))
[8]董玉文,任青文.高拱坝稳定安全度研究综述[J].水利水电科技进展,2006,26(5):78-82.(DONG Yu-wen,REN Qing-wen.Review on safety degree for stability of high arch dams[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2006,26(5):78-82.(in Chinese))
[9]吴威,郭兴文,王德信,等.荆江大堤安全度模糊综合评判方法研究[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2008,36(2):224-228.(WU Wei,GUO Xing-wen,WANG De-xin,et al.Fuzzy comprehensive method for evaluation of safety of Jingjiang dyke[J].Journal ofHohai University:Natural Sciences,2008,36(2):224-228.(in Chinese))
[10]聂学军,顾冲时,严良平,等.自适应模糊系统在大坝安全监测故障诊断中的应用[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2005,33(4):395-398.(NIE Xue-jun,GU Chong-shi,YAN Liang-ping,et al.Application of adaptive fuzzy system to fault auto-diagnosis in damsafety monitoring[J].Journal ofHohai University:Natural Sciences,2005,33(4):395-398.(in Chinese))
[11]朱伯芳.当前混凝土坝建设中的几个问题[J].水利学报,2009,40(1):1-9.(ZHU Bo-fang.On some problems in construction ofconcrete dams[J].Journal ofHydraulic Engineering,2009,40(1):1-9.(in Chinese))
[12]苏永华.岩土参数模糊隶属函数的构造方法及应用[J].岩土工程学报,2007,29(12):1772-1779.(SU Yong-hua.Constructingmethod of fuzzy membership function of geotechnical parameters and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2007,29(12):1772-1779.(in Chinese))
[13]SL258—2000水库大坝安全评价导则[S].
[14]邓聚龙.灰色系统基本方法[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1987.
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