金属矿山开采地表岩移的灰色预测模型
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摘要
金属矿山地表岩移受许多因素综合影响,从而导致开采过程中引起的岩移变化表现出复杂性和非线性特征。灰色系统的GM(1,1)模型是一种预测模型,包括数列预测、灾变预测、拓扑预测。矿区地表岩移的实测数据是时间序列数据,通过检验和残差修正,可得到符合该时间序列数据的GM(1,1)预测模型。以某金属矿区最大沉降GPS监测点为例,计算模型参数,建立相应的灰色微分方程模型,并对该模型的计算结果进行检验,对比实测值与模型计算值,发现该模型误差小、精度高,可用其对该地区未来地表岩移的发展变化进行预测。
Surface strata movement of metal mines is affected by many factors.Therefore,the change of strata movement is complex and nonlinear in exploitation.Based on grey system,GM(1,1) prediction model can predict sequence of numbers,catastrophe and topology.Measured surface strata movement on a metal mine is a time-series data.After test and correction of residual error,the GM(1,1) prediction model can be applied in the time-series data.The largest settlement displacement of GPS observation point is taken for an example in the paper.Gray model of differential equation is established according to the measured time-series data of surface strata movement on a metal mine.And the results of the model are checked.Through contrast between the measured data and the results,it is found that the prediction by the model is with little error and high precision.And it is feasible to use this model for prediction of the approaching change of surface strata movement on the metal mine.
Surface strata movement of metal mines is affected by many factors.Therefore,the change of strata movement is complex and nonlinear in exploitation.Based on grey system,GM(1,1) prediction model can predict sequence of numbers,catastrophe and topology.Measured surface strata movement on a metal mine is a time-series data.After test and correction of residual error,the GM(1,1) prediction model can be applied in the time-series data.The largest settlement displacement of GPS observation point is taken for an example in the paper.Gray model of differential equation is established according to the measured time-series data of surface strata movement on a metal mine.And the results of the model are checked.Through contrast between the measured data and the results,it is found that the prediction by the model is with little error and high precision.And it is feasible to use this model for prediction of the approaching change of surface strata movement on the metal mine.
引文
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[24]何姣云,任高峰.露天转地下开采巷道变形监测及灰色预测[J].矿业研究与开发,2006,26(5):36-47.(He Jiaoyun,Ren Gaofeng.Monitoring and greyprediction of deformation of rock surrounding roadwayduring transfer from open-casting to underground min-ing[J].Mining Research and Development,2006,26(5):36-47.(in Chinese))
[25]袁金,冯涛,刘金海,等.GM(1,1)改进模型在地表沉陷预测中的应用[J].矿业研究与开发,2007,27(3):61-72.(Yuan Jin,Feng Tao,Liu Jinhai,etal.Application of an improved GM(1,1)model inground subsidence prediction[J].Mining Researchand Development,2007,27(3):61-72.(in Chi-nese))
[26]刘思峰,郭天榜.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].开封:河南大学出版社,1991.(Liu Sifeng,Guo Tian-bang.Gray system theory and its application[M].Kaifeng:Henan University Press,1991.(in Chi-nese))
[2]张巨伟,高谦,王福玉.金属矿山岩移与工程稳定性研究及动态预测[J].地质与勘察,2006,42(5):98-102.(Zhang Juwei,Gao Qian,Wang Fuyu.Study onstrata movement and dynamic prediction and control ofthe stability for main projects in mine zone[J].Geologyand Prospecting,2006,42(5):98-102.(in Chinese))
[3]陈则连.煤矿采空区地表岩移对高速铁路的影响研究[J].铁道工程学报,2009,(4):5-8.(Chen Zelian.Research on influence of the displacement of surfacerock in coal mine goaf on high-speed railway[J].Jour-nal of Railway Engineering Society,2009,(4):5-8.(in Chinese))
[4]王金庄,邢安仕,吴立新.矿山开采沉陷及其损害防治[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1995.(WangJinzhuang,Xing Anshi,Wu Lixin.Mining subsidenceand its control[M].Beijing:China Coal Industry Pub-lishing House,1995.(in Chinese))
[5]牟会宠.岩移与塌陷[M].北京:地震出版社,1992.(Mou Huichong.Rock movement and collapse[M].Beijing:Seismic Press,1992.(in Chinese))
[6]煤炭科学研究总院北京开采所.煤矿地表移动与覆岩破坏规律及其应用[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1986.(Beijing Institute of Mining Research,China CoalResearch Institute.Coal mine surface movement and o-verburden failure of and their application[M].Beijing:China Coal Industry Publishing House,1986.(in Chi-nese))
[7]刘宝琛,廖国华.煤矿地表移动的基本规律[M].北京:中国工业出版社,1965.(Liu Baochen,Liao Guo-hua.The basic law of surface movement on Mine[M].Beijing:China Industry Press,1965.(in Chinese))
[8]Barry N,Whittaker I,David J,Reddish.Subsidenceoccurrence,prediction and control[M],Elsevier Sci-ence Publisher B.V.,1989.
[9]Hock,E.and Brown,E.T..Underground excavationsin rock[M].London:Institution of Min.&Met.,1980.
[10]Madan M.Singh.Mine subsidence of mining engineer[M].Littleton CO.,1986.
[11]Helmut Krastszch.Mining subsidence engineering[M].Translated by Fleming,New York:Spring-ver-lag Berlin Hei-delberg,1983.
[12]G.Swoboda.Numerical Methods in Geomechanics(ennsbruck),1988.
[13]Inaba,K.,Yoshida,S..The stability analysis oflandslide using the finite element solution of groundwater flow[J].Journal of Japan Landslide Society,1994,30(4):1-11.
[14]NCB,North East Leicestershirt Prospect,Mining Sub-sidence Report[R],Nottingham:Bestwood.
[15]RobertL,Schmidt,George A.Sananick.Remote Min-ing Using Water for Ground Support,Proceedings 5thconference on Ground Control in Mining[C],WVU:1986,89-106.
[16]Z.Agioutantis and M.Karmis.A Study of Roof Cavingin the Eastern U.S.Coalfields[C],In:Proce.5thConf,on Ground Control in Mining,Morgantown,1986.
[17]Hood,M.,Ewe,R.t.and Riddle,L.R.EmpiricalMethods of Subsidence Predication—A Case Studyfrom Illinois[J].J.Rock Mech.Min.Sci.&.Geo-mech.Abstr,1983,20(4).
[18]Lin S,Whittaker BN,Reddish DJ.Application of a-symmetrical influence functions for subsidence predic-tion of gently inclined seam extractions[J].Int.JRock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abst,1992,29(4):79-90.
[19]Cui XM,Miao XX,Wang JA.Improved prediction ofdifferential subsidence caused by underground mining[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics andMining Sciences,2000,37(6):15-27.
[20]P.R.Sheorey,J.P.Loui,K.B.Singh,S.K.Singh.Ground subsidence observations and a modified influ-ence function method for complete subsidence predic-tion[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics andMining Sciences,2000,37:801-818.
[21]曹阳,颜荣贵,贺跃光,等.崩落法开采急倾斜矿床地表变形预计新方法[J].矿冶,2002,11(4):5-8.(Cao Yang,Yan Ronggui,He Yueguang,et al.Newtechnology for prediction of surface movement withmining steep veins by caving method[J].Mining andMetallurgy,2002,11(4):5-8.(in Chinese))
[22]杜国栋.金川镍矿岩体移动与开采稳定性研究[D].中国科学院研究生院,2007.(Du Guodong.Study on rock mass movement and stability caused bycut-and-fill mining in Jinchuan nickel mine[D].Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2007.(in Chinese))
[23]邓聚龙.灰色理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2003.(Deng Julong.Grey theory[M].Wu-han:Huazhong University of Science&TechnologyPress,2003.(in Chinese))
[24]何姣云,任高峰.露天转地下开采巷道变形监测及灰色预测[J].矿业研究与开发,2006,26(5):36-47.(He Jiaoyun,Ren Gaofeng.Monitoring and greyprediction of deformation of rock surrounding roadwayduring transfer from open-casting to underground min-ing[J].Mining Research and Development,2006,26(5):36-47.(in Chinese))
[25]袁金,冯涛,刘金海,等.GM(1,1)改进模型在地表沉陷预测中的应用[J].矿业研究与开发,2007,27(3):61-72.(Yuan Jin,Feng Tao,Liu Jinhai,etal.Application of an improved GM(1,1)model inground subsidence prediction[J].Mining Researchand Development,2007,27(3):61-72.(in Chi-nese))
[26]刘思峰,郭天榜.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].开封:河南大学出版社,1991.(Liu Sifeng,Guo Tian-bang.Gray system theory and its application[M].Kaifeng:Henan University Press,1991.(in Chi-nese))
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