太阳黑子活动对地球地震活动的影响浅析
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摘要
利用调和分析以及小波分解与重构等信息挖掘方法,对1749年来的太阳黑子月统计数据,1920年来全球地震目录MS6.0以上地震年统计数据,1950年来华北地区ML4.7级以上地震目录,地球自转速率1832—1997年的年统计数据及1962年来的月统计数据,进行对比分析,研究发现:(1)在太阳活动处于强烈期时,地球大震处于高发期且略滞后2～5年,而此时地球自转速率处于减速期,其时间跨度约22年。(2)对于太阳黑子数11年的周期变化,在正常变化下如果处于低值期,期间地球地震活动也将增加,但地震发震时间滞后1～2年。考虑太阳黑子与日冕活动有继承性及延迟性的特点,我们认为引起11年左右的地震群活动可能不是直接受太阳黑子的影响,而是受太阳日冕活动影响。因为日冕抛射物在太阳黑子磁场弱化1年左右时爆发,使得太阳外层扁率增加并经常抛射一次性质量高达1013 kg的物质,从而导致地球自转速率因摄动效应而发生同步性减慢,以及地球地震活动增强。
In this article the data mining methods of harmonic FFT and wavelet analysis are implemented to analyze the relation between these data sets: monthly sunspots recorded from 1749;global earthquakes≥MS6 from 1920;north China earthquakes≥ML4.7 from 1950;annual LOD of Earth recorded from 1832 to 1997 and monthly LOD of Earth from 1962.Two main conclusions are given as:(1)during high Sun activity time,Earthquakes activities also are in a high level albeit which occurrence postponed for 2-5 years.At that time,LOD of Earth is at a low speed.This time span is about 22 years.(2)in the normal evolvement of sunspots cycle of 11 years,during the low sunspots numbers Earthquakes will be increased albeit which occurrence postponed for 1-2 years.Considering the characteristic of their occurrence subsequence and postponing between the sunspots and CME activities,we think of the 11 years change of Earthquakes activities is indirectly due to impact of the sunspots,and yet influenced by the CME.Its reason comes from the fact of the CME occurrence rate rise sharply after just 1-2 years as the sunspots magnetism descend.Strong CME will increase Sun apparent oblateness,and continually throw out a huge matter of up to1013kg one time,which result in the synchronous change of LOD of Earth as the celestial perturbation and enhancement of earthquakes activities.
In this article the data mining methods of harmonic FFT and wavelet analysis are implemented to analyze the relation between these data sets: monthly sunspots recorded from 1749;global earthquakes≥MS6 from 1920;north China earthquakes≥ML4.7 from 1950;annual LOD of Earth recorded from 1832 to 1997 and monthly LOD of Earth from 1962.Two main conclusions are given as:(1)during high Sun activity time,Earthquakes activities also are in a high level albeit which occurrence postponed for 2-5 years.At that time,LOD of Earth is at a low speed.This time span is about 22 years.(2)in the normal evolvement of sunspots cycle of 11 years,during the low sunspots numbers Earthquakes will be increased albeit which occurrence postponed for 1-2 years.Considering the characteristic of their occurrence subsequence and postponing between the sunspots and CME activities,we think of the 11 years change of Earthquakes activities is indirectly due to impact of the sunspots,and yet influenced by the CME.Its reason comes from the fact of the CME occurrence rate rise sharply after just 1-2 years as the sunspots magnetism descend.Strong CME will increase Sun apparent oblateness,and continually throw out a huge matter of up to1013kg one time,which result in the synchronous change of LOD of Earth as the celestial perturbation and enhancement of earthquakes activities.
引文
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[2]杨马陵,塔青.太阳黑子活动与新疆强震活动关系[J].内陆地震,2012,26(1):10-16.
[3]张桂清.全球性地震活动与太阳活动的关系[J].地震学报,1998,20(4):427-431.
[4]尹继尧,朱元清,宋治平,等.中国西部及邻区百年尺度周期的地震活动及其和太阳活动之间的负相关性[J].地球物理学报,201l,54(9):2263-2271.
[5]Solar Influences Data Analysis Center.Sunspot Number[EB/OL].(2013-4-1)[2012-9-16].http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/green-wch/spot_num.txt
[6]Earth Orientation Center.Earth orientation data[EB/OL].(2013-3-28)[2012-9-10].http://www.iers.org/IERS/EN/DataProducts/EarthOrientationData/eop.html
[7]宋治平,张国民,刘杰,等.全球地震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,2011:15-439.
[8]《中国地震目录》(公元前23世纪—公元2010年5月),中国地震局监测预报司预报管理处整编,2010,163-176.
[9]许忠淮.东亚地区现今构造应力图的编制[J].地震学报,2001,23(5):492-501.
[10]邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,等.中国活动构造基本特征[J].中国科学,2002,32(12):1020-1032.
[11]Chen P F.Coronal Mass Ejections:Models and Their Observational Basis[J].Living Rev.Solar Phys,2011,8(1):1-92.
[12]成礼智,王红霞,罗永.小波的理论与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004:55-106.
[13]Tony Phillips,Hugh Hudson.NASA Spacecraft Finds the Sun is Not a Perfect Sphere[J].NASA Goddard View,2008,4(7):3.
[14]王连捷,张利容.地球自转速率变化引起的全球应力场[J].地质力学学报,1997,3(3):12-20.
[15]Gaia S,Ciorgio S.Large earthquakes and Earth rotation:the role of mantle relaxation[J].Geophys.Res.Lett,1999,26(7):911-914.
[16]陈运泰,黄立人,林邦慧,等.用大地测量资料反演的1976年唐山地震的位错模式[J].地球物理学报,1979,22(3):201-217.
[17]顾震年.地震引起地球自转速率变化的分析[J].云南天文台台刊,1997,(2):61-67.
[18]Space Center staffs.How the Japan Earthquake Shortened Days on Earth[EB/OL].(2011-3-13)[2012-8-11].http://www.space.com/11115-japan-earthquake-shortened-earth-days.html
[19]徐文耀.地球电磁现象物理学[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2009:529-536.
[20]方成,丁明德,陈鹏飞.太阳活动区物理[M].南京:南京大学出版社,2008:178-298.
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