汶川地震区暴雨滑坡泥石流活动趋势预测
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摘要
汶川大地震发生后,暴雨又激发了新的滑坡和泥石流发生。为探讨汶川地震区暴雨滑坡泥石流活动趋势,对比分析了日本关东大地震和台湾集集大地震后诱发滑坡和泥石流活动趋势,在此基础上,对汶川地震区未来滑坡、泥石流活动趋势作了预测分析。同时,还讨论了估算不同强度降雨条件下滑坡面积和泥石流冲出量的方法。初步研究表明,汶川强震区至少在近10a内,滑坡和泥石流活动趋势是强烈的,之后地质条件将逐渐趋于稳定。本研究选择了面积为5.9km2的北川县城西侧斜坡为研究区,计算结果是如果一旦遭遇100a一遇降雨,新增滑坡面积可达166.97×104m2,约占整个研究区流域面积的28.3%。本研究还预测了魏家沟、苏家沟流域的不同频率降雨条件下的泥石流土砂产量,在100a一遇降雨条件下,泥石流土砂产量分别达71.0×104m3和49.2×104m3。研究成果为进一步认识汶川地震区后续降雨作用诱发的滑坡泥石流活动趋势提供参考。
After Wenchuan earthquake,the subsequent rainstorms caused new landslides and debris flow occurrence. To explore the future activity of rainfall induced landslides in the Wenchuan earthquake areas,comparative analysis of the earthquake-induced landslides and debris flow activity trends of the Wenchuan earthquake with the Great Kanto earthquake in Japan and the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan was made,on this basis,the future development of landslides in the Wenchuan earthquake areas was analyzed and predicted. The preliminary study results indicate the Landslide and debris flow activity in the Wenchuan erathquake areas will keep still intense in future 10 years. After that,the geological condition will be gradually stable in the future. A study area of 5.9 km2 was selected in western slope of the Beichuan city. The new landslide area induced by heavy rainfall with 100-year return period will be approximately 166.97×104 m2 ,taking up 28.3% of total study wtershed area. This study also predicted the outflow volume of debris flows with different return period in the future. The result shows the outflow volume of debris flow in the watershed of Weijia gully and Sujia gally were estimated to be 71.0×104 m3 and 49.2 ×104 m3 respectively. This research work can provide a reference for further understanding the role of Wenchuan earthquake follow-up rain-induced landslide and debris flow activity trends.
After Wenchuan earthquake,the subsequent rainstorms caused new landslides and debris flow occurrence. To explore the future activity of rainfall induced landslides in the Wenchuan earthquake areas,comparative analysis of the earthquake-induced landslides and debris flow activity trends of the Wenchuan earthquake with the Great Kanto earthquake in Japan and the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan was made,on this basis,the future development of landslides in the Wenchuan earthquake areas was analyzed and predicted. The preliminary study results indicate the Landslide and debris flow activity in the Wenchuan erathquake areas will keep still intense in future 10 years. After that,the geological condition will be gradually stable in the future. A study area of 5.9 km2 was selected in western slope of the Beichuan city. The new landslide area induced by heavy rainfall with 100-year return period will be approximately 166.97×104 m2 ,taking up 28.3% of total study wtershed area. This study also predicted the outflow volume of debris flows with different return period in the future. The result shows the outflow volume of debris flow in the watershed of Weijia gully and Sujia gally were estimated to be 71.0×104 m3 and 49.2 ×104 m3 respectively. This research work can provide a reference for further understanding the role of Wenchuan earthquake follow-up rain-induced landslide and debris flow activity trends.
引文
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[18]Zhou Bifan,Li Deji,Luo Defu,et al.Daidance for Debris flow Pre-vention[M].Beijing:Science Press,1991:92～95[周必凡,李德基,罗德富,等.泥石流防治指南[M].北京:科学出版社,1991:92～95]
[2]Xie Hong,Zhong Dunlun,Jiao Zhen,et al.Debris flow in Wen-chuan quake-hit area in2008[J].Journal of Mountain Scince,2009,27(4):501～509[谢洪,钟敦伦,矫震,等.2008年汶川地震重灾区的泥石流[J].山地学报,2009,27(4):501～509]
[3]Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,He Siming,et al.Mountain disasters in-duced by the earthquake of May12in Wenchuan and the disasters mitigation[J].Journal ofMountain Scince,2008,26(3):280～282[崔鹏,韦方强,何思明,等.512汶川地震诱发的山地灾害及减灾措施[J].山地学报,2008,26(3):280～282]
[4]Inoue K.The Kanto Earthquake(1923)and sediment disasters[J].The Earth Monthly,2001,23:147～154
[5]Koi T,Hotta N,Ishigaki I,et al.Prolonged impact of earthquake-in-duced landslides on sediment yield in a mountain watershed:the Tanzawa region,Japan[J].Geomorphology,2008,101:692～702
[6]Nakamura,H.,Tsuchiya,S.,Inoue,K.,et al.Sabo against Earthquakes[C].Kokon Shoin,Tokyo,Japan.2000:190～220[中村浩之,土屋智,井上公夫,等.地震砂防[C].社團法人砂防學稀⒌卣鹕胺姥芯肯,古今嗽?2000:190～220]
[7]Lin Guanhui,Zhang Changyi.Vulnerability after a devastating haz-ard:an interpretation of land use and land cover change in central Taiwan since1999Chi-Chi earthquake[J].Advanced in Earth Sci-ence.2006,21(2):201～210[林冠慧,张长义.巨大灾害后的脆弱性:台湾集集地震后中部地区土地利用与覆盖变迁[J].地球科学进展.2006,21(2):201～210]
[8]Lin C W,Liu S H,Chang W S,et al.The impact of the Chi-Chi earthquake on the subsequent rainfall induced landslides in the epi-central area of central Taiwan[A].In:Proceeding of international conference in commemoration of10th anniversary of the Chi-Chi earthquake[C].2009:336～338
[9]Lin,C.W.,Liu,S.H.,Lee,S.Y.,et al.Impacts on the Chi-Chi earthquake on subsequent rain-induced landslides in central Tai-wan[J].Engineering Geology,2006,86(2～3):87～101
[10]Cheng C T,Ku C Y,Chiao C H,et al.Risk potential analysis and e-valuation of debris flow hazards in upper reaches of Ta-China wa-tershed[J].Sinotech Engineering,2007,95:31～39[郑锦桐;顾承宇;邱显晋,等.大甲溪上游土石灾害潜势评估方法之研究[J].中兴工程,2007,95:31～39]
[11]Yu Shuhua,Gao Wenliang.Characteristic analysis of the debris flow and Landslide in heavy disaster area on May12th Wenchuan Earth-quake in Sichuan Province[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research.2008,28(12):62～67[郁淑华,高文良.“5.12”汶川特大地震重灾区泥石流滑坡气候特征分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2008,28(12):62～67]
[12]Uchiogi Tamao.Landslide due to One Continual Rainfall[J].Journal ofJapan Soc.ofErosion Control Eng.1971,79:21～34[打荻珠男.ひと雨による山腹崩壊について[J].新砂防,1971,79:21～34]
[13]Cheng,C T,Chiao,C.-H.,Ku,C.-Y,et al.Evaluation of landslides and debris flow hazards for reconstruction of Chin-Shan Hydropower Plant in Ta-Chia watershed after Chi-Chi Earthquake[A].In:Proceeding of international conference in commemoration of10th anniversary of the Chi-Chi earthquake[C].2009:360～374
[14]Tan Wanpei.Study on the debris flows forecast and its divisionsformed by disasters rainstorm in China[J].Bulltin ofSoil and Water Conservation,1989,9(2):48～53[谭万沛.中国灾害暴雨泥石流预报分区研究[J].水土保持通报,1989,9(2):48～53]
[15]Tan Wanpei.Study on regional critical ranfall indeces of debris flow in Sichuan Province[J].Journal ofCatastrophology,1992,7(2):37～42[谭万沛.四川省泥石流预报的区域临界雨量指标研究[J].灾害学,1992,7(2):37～42]
[16]Hu Xiewen,LXiaoping,Huang Runqiu,et al.Developmental fea-tures and evaluation on blocking dangers of dashui ditch debris flow in Tangjiashan dammed lake[J].Chinese Journal ofRock Mechan-ics and Engineering,2009,28(4):850～858[胡卸文,吕小平,黄润秋,等.唐家山堰塞湖大水沟泥石流发育特征及堵江危害性评价[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(4):850～858
[17]Cheng C.T,.Shen,C.W Shao K.S.,et al.The assessment and prediction of the landslides and debris flows in Ta-Chia Watershed between Maan Damand Techi Damafter Taiwan Chi-Chi earthquake[A].In:Proceeding of third Taiwan-Japan Joint Workshop on Geotechnical Natural Hazards[C].Taibei,2008
[18]Zhou Bifan,Li Deji,Luo Defu,et al.Daidance for Debris flow Pre-vention[M].Beijing:Science Press,1991:92～95[周必凡,李德基,罗德富,等.泥石流防治指南[M].北京:科学出版社,1991:92～95]
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