基于突变理论的泉州市水资源安全预警
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摘要
从水资源安全预警的内涵和原则出发,结合水资源复合系统的分析,以警情指标为对象,警源指标为依据,警兆指标为主体构建水资源安全预警指标体系,并划定各指标的警界。基于突变理论的突变级数法,首先对评价指标进行多层次分解,利用突变理论同模糊数学相结合产生突变模糊隶属函数,由归一公式进行综合量化运算,求出总的隶属函数来完成评价。以泉州市为例建立水资源安全预警指标及警界,确定各警度之间的阈值。搜集2000年-2008年的指标数据,运用BP神经网络预测2009年-2013年的预警指标值,根据突变级数法计算得到2000年-2013年的突变级数值,与预警阈值比较来预测警度,从时间尺度上掌握泉州市水资源安全状况的变化趋势。
According to the concept and principle of the early warning of water resources security and the analysis of water resources complex system,an early warning indicator system of water resources security was developed based on the indexes of warning situation,source of warning,and warning sign,and the warning limit of each index was designated.The evaluation index was performed multi-level decomposition using the catastrophe progression method,and the catastrophe fuzzy subordinate function was obtained using the combination of the catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics.Then,the normalization formula was used to conduct the comprehensive quantification and to obtain the overall subordinate function to complete the evaluation.The early warning indicator system of water resources security was developed in Quanzhou,and the warning limits for each indicator were designated and the threshold values between each of the warning degrees were determined.The early warning indicator values were collected from 2000 to 2008.The BP neural network method was used to forecast the early warning indicator values from 2009 to 2013,and the catastrophe progress method was used to determine the catastrophe progress values of early warning indicators from 2000 to 2013.The catastrophe progress values were compared with the threshold values of early warning indicators to predict the warning degree,and the variation trend of water resources security situation in Quanzhou was determined from the time scale.
According to the concept and principle of the early warning of water resources security and the analysis of water resources complex system,an early warning indicator system of water resources security was developed based on the indexes of warning situation,source of warning,and warning sign,and the warning limit of each index was designated.The evaluation index was performed multi-level decomposition using the catastrophe progression method,and the catastrophe fuzzy subordinate function was obtained using the combination of the catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics.Then,the normalization formula was used to conduct the comprehensive quantification and to obtain the overall subordinate function to complete the evaluation.The early warning indicator system of water resources security was developed in Quanzhou,and the warning limits for each indicator were designated and the threshold values between each of the warning degrees were determined.The early warning indicator values were collected from 2000 to 2008.The BP neural network method was used to forecast the early warning indicator values from 2009 to 2013,and the catastrophe progress method was used to determine the catastrophe progress values of early warning indicators from 2000 to 2013.The catastrophe progress values were compared with the threshold values of early warning indicators to predict the warning degree,and the variation trend of water resources security situation in Quanzhou was determined from the time scale.
引文
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[21]黄昌硕,耿雷华,王立群,等.中国水资源及水生态安全评价[J].人民黄河,2010,32(3):14-16.(HUANG Chang-shuo,GENG Lei-hua,WANG Li-qun,et.al.China's Water Resources and Water Ecological Security Evaluation[J].Yellow River,2010,32(3):14-16.(in Chinese))
[22]陈鑫.城市水安全评价理论与方法[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.(CHEN Xin.Urban Water Security Evaluation Theory[D].Xiamen:Xiamen University,2009.(in Chinese))
[23]高媛媛,王红瑞,许新宜,等.水资源安全评价模型构建与应用——以福建省泉州市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):204-214.(GAO Yuan-yuan,WANG Hong-rui,XU Xin-yi,et.al.Assessment of Water Resources Security-Case of Quanzhou City in Fujian Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(2):204-214.(in Chinese))
[2]汪哲荪,金菊良,李如忠,等.基于风险的区域水安全评价模糊数随机模拟模型[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2010,(6):1-5.(WANG Zhe-sun,JIN Ju-liang,LI Ru-zhong,et al.RiskBased Regional Water Security Assessment Method Using Sto-chastic Simulation and Triangular Fuzzy Numbers[J].Journalof Sichuan University(Engineering Science Edition),2010,(6):1-5.(in Chinese))
[3]尹志杰,管玉卉.南京市水资源安全综合评价方法研究[J].水电能源科学,2010,28(6):16-18.(YIN Zhi-jie,GUAN Yu-hui.Research on Comprehensive Evaluation Method of Water Re-sources Security in Nanjing City[J].Water Resources and Pow-er,2010,28(6):16-18.(in Chinese))
[4]关文彬,谢春华,李春平,等.荒漠化危害预警原理与评价方法[J].北京林业大学学报,2003,25(3):79-83.(GUAN Wen-bin,XIE Chun-hua,LI Chun-ping,et.al.Principles and AssessingMethods for Early Warning of Desertification Damages[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2003,25(3):79-83.(inChinese))
[5]毛子龙.吉林省通榆县土地生态安全预警与土地资源利用优化研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2007.(MAO Zi-long.Land Ecologi-cal Security Warning and Optimistic Use of Land Resources inTongyu,Jilin[D].Changchun:Jilin University,2007.(in Chi-nese))
[6]陈绍金.水安全系统评价、预警与调控研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.(CHEN Shao-jin.Water Security System Evaluation,Early Warning and Control Research[D].Nanjing:Hohai Uni-versity,2005.(in Chinese))
[7]符娟林,乔标.基于模糊物元的城市化生态预警模型及应用[J].地球科学进展,2008,23(9):990-995.(FU Juan-lin,QIAOBiao.Ecological Early-warning Model and its Application in theProcess of Urbanization Based on Fuzzy Matter Element Theo-ry[J].Advances in Earth Science,2008,23(9):990-995.(in Chinese))
[8]Rietveld L C,Haarhoff J,Jagals P.A Tool for Technical Assessment of Rural Water Supply Systems in South Africa[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2009,34:43-49.
[9]Thom R.Structural Stability and Morphogenesis[M].Benjamin:ReadingMass,1975.
[10]黄奕龙.突变级数法在水资源持续利用评价中的应用[J].干旱环境监测,2001,15(3):167-170.(HUANG Yi-long.Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainable Use by Catastrophe Progression Method[J].Arid Environmental Monitoring,2001,15(3):167-170.(in Chinese))
[11]焦金鱼.甘肃岷县泥石流危险性评价研究[D].兰州:西北师范大学,2009.(JIAO Jin-yu.Gansu MinXian Debris Flow Risk Assessment Research[D].Lanzhou:Northwest Normal University,2009.(in Chinese))
[12]李艳,陈晓宏,张鹏飞.突变级数法在区域生态系统健康评价中的应用[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2007,(17):50-54.(LI Yan,CHEN Xiao-hong,ZHANG Peng-fei.Application of Catastrophe Progression Method to Evaluation of Regional Ecosystem Health[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2007,(17):50-54.(in Chinese))
[13]高科,李夕兵,宫凤强.基于突变级数法的边坡地震稳定性综合评价[J].地下空间与工程学报,2009,5(2):406-412.(GAO Ke,LI Xi-bing,GONG Feng-qiang.Integrative Evaluation on Seismic Stability of Slopes Based on Catastrophe Progression Method[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2009,5(2):406-412.(in Chinese))
[14]Poston T,Stewart.Catastrophe Theory[M].Cambridge:Camb UnivPress,1980.
[15]文俊.区域水资源可持续利用预警系统研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.(WEN Jun.Early Warning System of Sustainable Use of Regional Water Rcsources[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2006.(in Chinese))
[16]杨杰军.青岛市崂山区水资源可持续利用研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009.(YANG Zhi-jun.Sustainable Use of Water Resources in Laoshan District,Qingdao[D].Qingdao:Ocean University of China,2009.(in Chinese))
[17]吴湘婷.区域水资源可持续利用水平评价指标体系研究[J].人民黄河,2007,29(6):31-34.(WU Xiang-ting.Sustainable Use of Regional Water Resources Evaluation Indicators System[J].Yellow River,2007,29(6):31-34.(in Chinese))
[18]陈守煜.区域水资源可持续利用评价理论模型与方法[J].中国工程科学,2001,(2):33-36.(CHEN Shou-yu.Theory Model and a Method for Qualitative Assessment of Sustainable Development of Regional Water Resources[J].China Engineering Science,2001,(2):33-36.(in Chinese))
[19]苏永红,冯起,刘蔚.应用模糊综合评判方法评价石羊河流域水资源承载力[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(2):169-174.(SU Yong-hong,FENG Qi,LIU Wei.Evaluation of the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in the Shiyang River Basin Using Integrated Fuzzy Assessment[J].Arid Zone Research,2009,26(2):169-174.(in Chinese))
[20]吴开亚,金菊良,魏一鸣.流域水安全预警评价的智能集成模型[J].水科学进展,2009,20(4):518-525.(WU Kai-ya,JIN Ju-liang,WEI Yi-ming.Intelligent Integrated Model for Forewarning Evaluation of Watershed Water Security[J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20(4):518-525.(in Chinese))
[21]黄昌硕,耿雷华,王立群,等.中国水资源及水生态安全评价[J].人民黄河,2010,32(3):14-16.(HUANG Chang-shuo,GENG Lei-hua,WANG Li-qun,et.al.China's Water Resources and Water Ecological Security Evaluation[J].Yellow River,2010,32(3):14-16.(in Chinese))
[22]陈鑫.城市水安全评价理论与方法[D].厦门:厦门大学,2009.(CHEN Xin.Urban Water Security Evaluation Theory[D].Xiamen:Xiamen University,2009.(in Chinese))
[23]高媛媛,王红瑞,许新宜,等.水资源安全评价模型构建与应用——以福建省泉州市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):204-214.(GAO Yuan-yuan,WANG Hong-rui,XU Xin-yi,et.al.Assessment of Water Resources Security-Case of Quanzhou City in Fujian Province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(2):204-214.(in Chinese))
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