基于灰色Compertz模型的煤矿地表沉陷灾害特征值预测
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摘要
为充分利用表征煤矿地表沉陷灾害特征的沉降量这一数据信息,采用灰色Compertz(龚伯兹曲线)模型对其进行预测,同时提高预测精度,实现对地表沉陷灾害的早期识别和预警。以地表沉降量观测数据为依据,根据沉降量变化非线性特征,构建灰色理论与Compertz耦合的预测模型。以样本数据预测误差最小为原则,构建煤矿区地表沉陷灾害特征值预测模型。以金竹山土朱矿为实例进行应用,利用灰色Compertz预测模型对87个地面观测点沉陷特征数据进行分析和预测。结果表明,预测值与实际观测值拟合度高,精度等级达到了一级,预测结果可靠。
In order to make full use of subsidence disaster characteristics data information of surface subsidence characterization in coal minning area,the grey Compertz model is adopted to carry out predicting subsidence disaseer and to improve prediction accuracy. Based on surface subsidence observation data,according to non-linear characteristics of ground subsidence,a coupling prediction model combining grey theory and Compertz is built. A prediction model of the characteristic value of subsidence disaster is built on the basis of principle of minimum sample data of prediction errors in a coal mine. With application of the characteristics data from 87 observation points for ground subsidence in Tuzhu mine,the characteristic value of surface subsidence disaster is analyzed and predicted using grey Compertz forecasting model in coal mine. The researched results show that fitting degree between predicted values and actual values is high,the predicted precision rank has reached level I and prediction results are reliable.
In order to make full use of subsidence disaster characteristics data information of surface subsidence characterization in coal minning area,the grey Compertz model is adopted to carry out predicting subsidence disaseer and to improve prediction accuracy. Based on surface subsidence observation data,according to non-linear characteristics of ground subsidence,a coupling prediction model combining grey theory and Compertz is built. A prediction model of the characteristic value of subsidence disaster is built on the basis of principle of minimum sample data of prediction errors in a coal mine. With application of the characteristics data from 87 observation points for ground subsidence in Tuzhu mine,the characteristic value of surface subsidence disaster is analyzed and predicted using grey Compertz forecasting model in coal mine. The researched results show that fitting degree between predicted values and actual values is high,the predicted precision rank has reached level I and prediction results are reliable.
引文
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[2]杨伦.矿山开采沉陷对环境的损害比地震严重[J].科技导报,2001,12(9):53-55.YANG Lun.The minimg subsidence destroys the environment of mine areas more seriously than earthquake[J].Science and Technology Review,2001,12(9):53-55.
[3]山西近七分之一地面“悬空”,大面积土地塌陷[EB/OL].[2005-08-25].http://news.163.com/05/0825/20/1S1FIJL10001124T.html.Nearly one seventh of surface in Shanxi“suspended”underground,large area of land subsidence.[EB/OL].[2005-08-25].http://news.163.com/05/0825/20/1S1FIJL10001124T.html.
[4]景国勋,张强,周爱桃.基于灰色系统理论的煤与瓦斯突出预测[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(8):18-21.JING Guo-xun,ZHANG Qiang,ZHOU Ai-tao.Prediction of coal and gas outburst based on grey system theory[J].China Safety Scinece Jounal,2004,14(8):18-21.
[5]杨禹华,钟震宇,赵云胜,等.基于灰色预测理论的瓦斯传感器自校正技术[J].中国安全科学学报,2004,14(7):6-8.YANG Yu-hua,ZHONG Zhen-yu,ZHAO Yun-sheng,et al.Self correction of methane sensor based on grey prediction theory[J].China Safety Scinece Jounal,2004,14(7):6-8.
[6]刘新喜,赵云胜.用灰色建模法预测矿井瓦斯涌出量[J].中国安全科学学报,2000,10(4):51-54.LIU Xin-xi,ZHAO Yun-sheng.Predicting the amount of gas gushed from mine by model GM(1,1)of gray system theory[J].China Safety Scinece Jounal,2000,10(4):51-54.
[7]罗文柯,施式亮.基于混沌、灰色理论模型,预测煤矿生产中安全状况的对比分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(10):34-39.LUO Wen-ke,SHI Shi-liang.Comparative analysis of coal safety ctate predicted by chaos and grey theory models[J].China Safety Scinece Jounal,2008,18(10):34-39.
[8]尹柯,蒋军成.预测法在安全生产中的应用研究评述及展望[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(6):111-117.YIN Ke,JIANG Jun-cheng.Review of application of prediction methods in the field of production safety[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(6):111-117.
[9]同小军,张洪林.两种灰色模型的对比与分析[J].武汉工业学院学报,2003,22(4):101-104.TONG Xiao-jun,ZHANG Hong-lin.Analysis of two grey models[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2003,22(4):101-104.
[10]熊和金,徐华中.灰色控制[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2005∶3-24.XIONG He-jin,XU Hua-zhong.Grey Control[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,2005∶3-24.
[11]刘棠洪,董克刚,周俊,等.残差灰色预测模型在地面沉降监测中的应用[J].城市环境与城市生态,2007,20(5):32-38.LIU Tang-hong,DONG Ke-gang,ZHOU Jun,et al.Residual error modified model based on GM(1,1)and its application in monitoring land subsidence[J].Urban Environment&Urban Ecology,2007,20(5):32-38.
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