基于储量增长模型和概率分析的大油气田储量增长评价方法及其在中东地区的应用
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摘要
全球每年约有70%的新增油气储量来源于已发现大油气田的储量增长。基于单个大油气田储量增长因素的概率分析和大油气田产、储量统计分析,提出了储量增长评价新方法,建立了中东地区大油气田储量增长模型,并进行了潜力预测。研究表明,预测截至2042年Halfaya油气田储量增长的因素为提高采收率、储量升级、油田扩边、发现新层系,所引起的石油储量增长分别为30.8×10~8桶、7.5×10~8桶、4.3×10~8桶和3.2×10~8桶,所引起的天然气储量增长分别为0.8×10~8桶油当量、2.7×10~8桶油当量、2.7×10~8桶油当量和5.7×10~8桶油当量;中东地区大油田和大气田储量增长变化趋势较为相似,储量增长高峰期主要位于开发早期和中期;截至2042年中东地区167个大油田储量增长潜力为2103×10~8桶,64个大气田储量增长潜力为1018×10~8桶油当量;用同一个样本点对概率法和统计法的研究结果进行了验证,两种方法吻合程度较高。该方法通过解剖个体特征,分析整体规律,由已知推测未知,实现了统计法、概率法和地质分析法的有机结合,可以进一步用于全球大油气田储量增长研究。
In the whole world,approximately 70 percent of new oil and gas reserves are contributed by the increase of reserves in large oil-gas fields discovered every year.In order to study the variation law of reserves growth of large oil-gas fields in the Middle East,a new evaluation method is put forward based on probability analysis of reserves growth factor for a large oil-gas field and statistical analysis of the output and reserves of large oil-gas fields.Moreover,reserves growth models are established for large oil-gas fields in the Middle East,as predicting the growth potentiality.Results show that reserves growth factors of the Halfaya oilfield in 2042 mainly include enhanced oil recovery,reserves promotion,oilfield expansion and discovery of new reservoirs,which leads to the increased amounts of oil reserves are 3.08,0.75,0.43 and 0.32 BBOE respectively,and those of gas reserves are 0.08,0.27,0.27 and 0.57 BBOE respectively.In the Middle East,the reserves growth trend of large oil fields is similar to that of large gas fields,and growth peaks mainly appeared in early and middle stages of the oil-gas fields exploitation.It is predicted that in the next 30 years the amounts of the potential reserves growth of 167 large oil fields in the Middle East will up to 201.3 BBOE,while those of the potential growth of 64 large gas fields is 101.8 BBOE.The same sample point is used to verify the research results obtained by probability and statistics methods,both of which fit with each other well.Through analyzing individual characteristics and overall laws,and deducing the unknown from the known,this evaluation method integrates probability and statistics methods with geologic analysis,and can be further applied to investigate the reserves growth of global oil-gas fields.
In the whole world,approximately 70 percent of new oil and gas reserves are contributed by the increase of reserves in large oil-gas fields discovered every year.In order to study the variation law of reserves growth of large oil-gas fields in the Middle East,a new evaluation method is put forward based on probability analysis of reserves growth factor for a large oil-gas field and statistical analysis of the output and reserves of large oil-gas fields.Moreover,reserves growth models are established for large oil-gas fields in the Middle East,as predicting the growth potentiality.Results show that reserves growth factors of the Halfaya oilfield in 2042 mainly include enhanced oil recovery,reserves promotion,oilfield expansion and discovery of new reservoirs,which leads to the increased amounts of oil reserves are 3.08,0.75,0.43 and 0.32 BBOE respectively,and those of gas reserves are 0.08,0.27,0.27 and 0.57 BBOE respectively.In the Middle East,the reserves growth trend of large oil fields is similar to that of large gas fields,and growth peaks mainly appeared in early and middle stages of the oil-gas fields exploitation.It is predicted that in the next 30 years the amounts of the potential reserves growth of 167 large oil fields in the Middle East will up to 201.3 BBOE,while those of the potential growth of 64 large gas fields is 101.8 BBOE.The same sample point is used to verify the research results obtained by probability and statistics methods,both of which fit with each other well.Through analyzing individual characteristics and overall laws,and deducing the unknown from the known,this evaluation method integrates probability and statistics methods with geologic analysis,and can be further applied to investigate the reserves growth of global oil-gas fields.
引文
[1]查全衡.代表性石油资源分类的比较研究[J].石油学报,2008,29(6):809-815.Zha Quanheng.Comparative study on the typical classification of petroleum resources[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2008,29(6):809-815.
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[4]童晓光,黎丙建.老油区石油储量增长趋势预测及应用[J].石油勘探与开发,1991,18(6):25-31.Tong Xiaoguang,Li Birigjian.Estimation of reserve increment tendency for a matured petroleum province and its application[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,1991,18(6):25-31.
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[7]高瑞祺,陈元千,毕海滨.对我国石油可采资源量的预测研究[J].石油学报,2002,23(5):44-47.Gao Ruiqi.Chen Yuanqian.Bi Haibing.Study on the predictingmethods for recoverable reserves[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica.2002,23(5):44-47.
[8]陈元千,邹存友.产量递减阶段储采比变化规律[J].新疆石油地质,2010,31(1):54-57.Chen Yuanqian,2ou Cunyou.Variation of reserves production ratio in production decline stage[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2010,31(1):54-57.
[9]郑德文,张君峰,苏建杰.新增探明储量增长趋势预测研究[J].中国石油勘探,2004,7(2):44-48.Zheng Dewen,Zhang Junfeng.Su Jianjie.Prediction method for newly additional proven reserves growth trend[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2004,7(2).44-48.
[10]庄丽,张玲.基于控制储量升级率的油气探明储量增长趋势研究[J].油气地质与采收率,2012,19(2):90-92.Zhuang Li,Zhang Ling.Trend prediction of oil&gas proved reserves growth based on controlled reserves upgrade rate[J],Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2012,19(2):90-92.
[11]Arrington J R.Predicting the size of crude reserves is key to evaluating exploration programs[J].Oil&Gas Journal,1960,58(9):130-134.
[12]Megill R E.Growth factors can help estimates:American[J].Association of Petroleum Geologists Explorer,1989,10(5):19-20.
[13]Klett T R.United States geological survey's Reserve-Growth models and their implementation[J].Natural Resources Research,2005,14(3):149-264.
[14]Verma M K.Modified Arrington Method for calculating reserve growth:a new model for United States oil and gas fields[G]//Dyman T S,Schmoker J W,Verma M.Geologic,engineering,and assessment studies of reserve growth.United States Geological Survey Bulletin 2172-D,2003.
[15]Klett T R.Gautier D L.Reserve growth in oil fields of the North Sea[J].Petroleum Geoscience,2005,11:179-190.
[16]Verma M K,Cook T.Reserve growth in oil pools of Alberta:model and forecast[J].Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology,2010,58(3):283-293.
[17]Klett T R.Gautier D L.Ahlbrandt T S.An evaluation of the USGS world petroleum assessment 2000:supporting data[R].U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1021,2007.
[18]白国平.中东油气区油气地质特征[M].北京:中国石化出版社,2007.Bai Guoping.Hydrocarbon geology of the Middle East Oil&Gas area[M].Beijing:China Petrochemical Press.2007.
[19]IHS.Fields general[EB/OL].[2009-12-05],http://edin.ihsenergy.com/24855_Halfayah_000_fr.pdf.
[20]赵文智,胡素云.油气资源—储量分类体系探讨[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):7-11.Zhao Wenzhi.Hu Suyun.Discussion on classification systems of oil and gas resources and reserves[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2005,26(Suppl.1):7-11.
[21]贾承造.美国SEC油气储量评估方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004.Jia Chengzao.U S SEC oil&gas reserves evaluation method[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004.
[22]贾成业,贾爱林,邓怀群,等.概率法在油气储量计算中的应用[J].天然气工业,2009,29(11):83-85.Jia Chengye,Jia Ailin,Deng Huaiqun,et al.Application of the stochastic method to oil and gas reserves estimation[J].Natural Gas Industry,2009,29(11):83-85.
[23]季敏,王尚旭,李生杰,等.物理模型的地震属性预测效果分析[J].石油勘探与开发,2007,34(3):339-341.Ji Min.Wang Shangxu.Li Shengjie,et al.An analysis of attribute prediction result in seismic physical modeling[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2007,34(3):339-341.
[24]闫文华,江宏涛.开发阶段的构造精细解释与综合研究一以留北、岔河集等开发项目为例[J].石油地球物理勘探,2006,41(增刊1):105-108.Yan Wenhua,Jiang Hongtao.Fine interpretation and integrative study of structures in development stage:taking Liubei and Chaheji development projects as cases[J].Oil Geophysical Prospecting,2006,41(Suppl.1):105-108.
[25]刘成林,车长波,朱杰,等.油气资源可采系数研究[J].石油学报,2009,30(6):856-861.Liu Chenglin,Che Changbo.Zhu Jie,et al.Study on recoverable coefficient of oil and gas resources[J],Acta Petrolei Sinica,2009,30(6):856-861.
[26]Charpentier R R,Klett T R.Guiding principles of USGS methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources[J].Natural Resources Research,2005,14(3):175-186.
[2]童晓光.近10年世界储量增加的特点和未来趋势—世界储量的增加由勘探新发现和已知油气田储量增长两部分组成[J].世界石油工业,2006,13(4):14-17.Tong Xiaoguang.Characteristics and future trend of worldwide reserves growth in past decade—Increase of worldwide reserves comes from new exploration discoveries and growth in reserves of known oil and gas fields[J].World Petroleum Industry,2006,13(4):14-17.
[3]IHS.Fields general[EB/OL].[2013-01-05].http://edin.ihsenergy.com/FME_kiiSL2766444733.ZIP.
[4]童晓光,黎丙建.老油区石油储量增长趋势预测及应用[J].石油勘探与开发,1991,18(6):25-31.Tong Xiaoguang,Li Birigjian.Estimation of reserve increment tendency for a matured petroleum province and its application[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,1991,18(6):25-31.
[5]朱杰,车长波,刘成林,等.储量增长预测模型的对比分析[J].西安石油大学学报:自然科学版,2008,23(5):21-23.Zhu Jie.Che Changbo,Liu Chenglin.et al.Contrastive analysis of reserves increasing prediction models[J].Journal of Xi'an Shiyou University:Natural Science Edition,2008,23(5):21-23.
[6]王屿涛,罗建玲,高奇.准噶尔盆地天然气储量增长趋势预测及勘探潜力分析[J].新疆石油地质,2012,33(5):614-616.Wang Yutao.Luo Jianling,Gao Qi.Natural gas reserves growth prediction and exploration potential analysis in Junggar basin[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2012,33(5):614-616.
[7]高瑞祺,陈元千,毕海滨.对我国石油可采资源量的预测研究[J].石油学报,2002,23(5):44-47.Gao Ruiqi.Chen Yuanqian.Bi Haibing.Study on the predictingmethods for recoverable reserves[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica.2002,23(5):44-47.
[8]陈元千,邹存友.产量递减阶段储采比变化规律[J].新疆石油地质,2010,31(1):54-57.Chen Yuanqian,2ou Cunyou.Variation of reserves production ratio in production decline stage[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2010,31(1):54-57.
[9]郑德文,张君峰,苏建杰.新增探明储量增长趋势预测研究[J].中国石油勘探,2004,7(2):44-48.Zheng Dewen,Zhang Junfeng.Su Jianjie.Prediction method for newly additional proven reserves growth trend[J].China Petroleum Exploration,2004,7(2).44-48.
[10]庄丽,张玲.基于控制储量升级率的油气探明储量增长趋势研究[J].油气地质与采收率,2012,19(2):90-92.Zhuang Li,Zhang Ling.Trend prediction of oil&gas proved reserves growth based on controlled reserves upgrade rate[J],Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2012,19(2):90-92.
[11]Arrington J R.Predicting the size of crude reserves is key to evaluating exploration programs[J].Oil&Gas Journal,1960,58(9):130-134.
[12]Megill R E.Growth factors can help estimates:American[J].Association of Petroleum Geologists Explorer,1989,10(5):19-20.
[13]Klett T R.United States geological survey's Reserve-Growth models and their implementation[J].Natural Resources Research,2005,14(3):149-264.
[14]Verma M K.Modified Arrington Method for calculating reserve growth:a new model for United States oil and gas fields[G]//Dyman T S,Schmoker J W,Verma M.Geologic,engineering,and assessment studies of reserve growth.United States Geological Survey Bulletin 2172-D,2003.
[15]Klett T R.Gautier D L.Reserve growth in oil fields of the North Sea[J].Petroleum Geoscience,2005,11:179-190.
[16]Verma M K,Cook T.Reserve growth in oil pools of Alberta:model and forecast[J].Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology,2010,58(3):283-293.
[17]Klett T R.Gautier D L.Ahlbrandt T S.An evaluation of the USGS world petroleum assessment 2000:supporting data[R].U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1021,2007.
[18]白国平.中东油气区油气地质特征[M].北京:中国石化出版社,2007.Bai Guoping.Hydrocarbon geology of the Middle East Oil&Gas area[M].Beijing:China Petrochemical Press.2007.
[19]IHS.Fields general[EB/OL].[2009-12-05],http://edin.ihsenergy.com/24855_Halfayah_000_fr.pdf.
[20]赵文智,胡素云.油气资源—储量分类体系探讨[J].石油学报,2005,26(增刊):7-11.Zhao Wenzhi.Hu Suyun.Discussion on classification systems of oil and gas resources and reserves[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2005,26(Suppl.1):7-11.
[21]贾承造.美国SEC油气储量评估方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2004.Jia Chengzao.U S SEC oil&gas reserves evaluation method[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,2004.
[22]贾成业,贾爱林,邓怀群,等.概率法在油气储量计算中的应用[J].天然气工业,2009,29(11):83-85.Jia Chengye,Jia Ailin,Deng Huaiqun,et al.Application of the stochastic method to oil and gas reserves estimation[J].Natural Gas Industry,2009,29(11):83-85.
[23]季敏,王尚旭,李生杰,等.物理模型的地震属性预测效果分析[J].石油勘探与开发,2007,34(3):339-341.Ji Min.Wang Shangxu.Li Shengjie,et al.An analysis of attribute prediction result in seismic physical modeling[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2007,34(3):339-341.
[24]闫文华,江宏涛.开发阶段的构造精细解释与综合研究一以留北、岔河集等开发项目为例[J].石油地球物理勘探,2006,41(增刊1):105-108.Yan Wenhua,Jiang Hongtao.Fine interpretation and integrative study of structures in development stage:taking Liubei and Chaheji development projects as cases[J].Oil Geophysical Prospecting,2006,41(Suppl.1):105-108.
[25]刘成林,车长波,朱杰,等.油气资源可采系数研究[J].石油学报,2009,30(6):856-861.Liu Chenglin,Che Changbo.Zhu Jie,et al.Study on recoverable coefficient of oil and gas resources[J],Acta Petrolei Sinica,2009,30(6):856-861.
[26]Charpentier R R,Klett T R.Guiding principles of USGS methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources[J].Natural Resources Research,2005,14(3):175-186.
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