航空公司机队可靠性状态识别方法
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摘要
机队作为航空公司运输能力的主体,其可靠性状态直接影响到航空公司的经济效益。在分析航空公司机队可靠性日常数据统计、采集方式以及管理的基础上,综合考虑维修可靠性方案和日常运行状态监控方案等,应用Delphi法,选取了使用困难报告(SDR)、机队可利用率、非计划停场率、日利用率、不正常千次率、故障率和部件非计划拆换率这7个参数作为航空公司机队可靠性指标,并确立了指标分级标准。针对航空公司机队可靠性指标具有模糊性、随机性和复杂性的特征,应用属性区间识别理论,建立了航空公司机队可靠性状态属性区间识别模型。为了克服指标权重的主观性问题,运用熵权法确定指标权重系数。最后分别应用属性灰色贴近度、属性置信度准则、灰色聚类和模糊模式对航空机队可靠性进行危险状态等级识别和结果分析。实例分析表明,熵权属性区间灰色贴近度识别方法更为简单、可靠和客观,为航空公司机队可靠性状态识别提供了一种科学识别方法。
Air flight fleet is the central part of the transportation ability of an airline,and its status of reliability affects the economic benefits directly.According to the analysis of routine data statistics,acquisition data modes,data management of the reliability of the airline fleet,this paper studies the project of maintenance reliability and daily running status monitoring of fleet operation,seven indicators of airline fleet reliability are set up by the Delphi method,including service difficulty report(SDR),availability of fleet,rate of nonscheduled down,aircraft utilization ratio,abnormal thousand-time rate,failure rate and unscheduled replacement rate of parts.The paper establishes a grading standard of the indicator systems of airline fleet reliability.In view of its fuzziness,randomness and complexity,the attribute interval recognition model of the reliability of airline fleet is established based on attribute interval recognition theory.To eliminate the subjectivity of indicator weight,the weight coefficient is determined by the entropy weight method.Finally,the identification of risk status grade and the analysis of results on the reliability of airline fleet is performed by attribute grey close degree,attribute confidence level rule,grey clustering method and fuzzy pattern recognition respectively.The case study shows that the entropy weight attribute interval grey close degree recognition method is comparatively simple,reliable and objective,and it supplies a scientific method to recognize the status of airline fleet reliability.
Air flight fleet is the central part of the transportation ability of an airline,and its status of reliability affects the economic benefits directly.According to the analysis of routine data statistics,acquisition data modes,data management of the reliability of the airline fleet,this paper studies the project of maintenance reliability and daily running status monitoring of fleet operation,seven indicators of airline fleet reliability are set up by the Delphi method,including service difficulty report(SDR),availability of fleet,rate of nonscheduled down,aircraft utilization ratio,abnormal thousand-time rate,failure rate and unscheduled replacement rate of parts.The paper establishes a grading standard of the indicator systems of airline fleet reliability.In view of its fuzziness,randomness and complexity,the attribute interval recognition model of the reliability of airline fleet is established based on attribute interval recognition theory.To eliminate the subjectivity of indicator weight,the weight coefficient is determined by the entropy weight method.Finally,the identification of risk status grade and the analysis of results on the reliability of airline fleet is performed by attribute grey close degree,attribute confidence level rule,grey clustering method and fuzzy pattern recognition respectively.The case study shows that the entropy weight attribute interval grey close degree recognition method is comparatively simple,reliable and objective,and it supplies a scientific method to recognize the status of airline fleet reliability.
引文
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[11]Xu F,Wang K,Liu Z B.Attribute interval recognition model based on projection pursuit weight for evaluation of stability of surrounding rock[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(8):2587-2591.(in Chinese)徐飞,王珂,刘造保.围岩稳定性评价的投影寻踪权重-属性区间识别模型[J].岩土力学,2010,31(8):2587-2591.
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[13]Wang Z X.Civil aircraft maintenance[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Civil Aviation Press of China,2009:11-53.(in Chinese)王再兴.民用航空器外场维修[M].2版.北京:中国民航出版社,2009:11-53.
[14]Chen Y G,Luo X L.Nonlinear dynamic assessment model of airline fleet equipment reliability[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2013,34(1):104-111.(in Chinese)陈勇刚,罗晓利.航空公司机队设备可靠性非线性动态评估模型[J].航空学报,2013,34(1):104-111.
[15]Li Q,Ling K.Attribute interval recognition model for synthetic index system’evaluation for sustainable development[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2004,34(28):6-11.(in Chinese)李群,凌亢.我国可持续发展指标体系属性区间识别综合评价模型及其应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2004,34(28):6-11.
[16]Zhang Q,Liu K,Gao Z Y.An application of attribute synthetic evaluation system in urban traffic planning[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,2002,22(6):113-120.(in Chinese)张强,刘克,高自友.属性综合评价系统在城市交通规划中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(6):113-120.
[17]Jia Z Y,Zhao L,Fan Z.High-quality substation project evaluation based on attribute measurement interval theory[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2012,32(4):67-71.(in Chinese)贾正源,赵亮,范辀.基于属性测度区间理论的变电站优质工程评价体系[J].电力自动化设备,2012,32(4):67-71.
[18]Wen C P,Yang G L.The seismic stability evaluation of the rock and soil slope based on the attribute mathematical theory[J].China Railway Science,2010,31(5):8-14.(in Chinese)文畅平,杨果林.基于属性数学理论的岩土边坡地震稳定性评价[J].中国铁道科学,2010,31(5):8-14.
[19]Zou Q,Zhou J Z,Zhou C,et al.Flood disaster risk analysis based on principle of maximum entropy and attribute interval recognition theory[J].Advance in Water Science,2012,23(3):323-333.(in Chinese)邹强,周建中,周超,等.基于最大熵原理和属性区间识别理论的洪水灾害风险分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):323-333.
[20]Wen C P.Attribute recognition model and its application of fatalness assessment of gas burst in tunnel[J].Journal of Coal Society,2011,36(8):1322-1328.(in Chinese)文畅平.隧道瓦斯突出危险性评价的属性识别模型与实例[J].煤炭学报,2011,36(8):1322-1328.
[21]Zou Q,Zhou J Z,Yang X L,et al.A comprehensive assessment model for severity degree of dam failure impact based on attribute interval recognition theory[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2011,43(2):45-50.(in Chinese)邹强,周建中,杨小玲,等.属性区间识别模型在溃坝后果综合评价中的应用[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2011,43(2):45-50.
[22]Zhang X Q,Liang C,Liu H Q.Application of attribute recognition model based on coefficient of entropy to comprehensive evaluation of groundwater quality[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2005,37(3):28-31.(in Chinese)张先起,梁川,刘慧卿.基于熵权的属性识别模型在地下水水质综合评价中的应用[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2005,37(3):28-31.
[23]Xue J G,Zhou J,Shi X Z,et al.Assessment of classification for rock mass blastability based on entropy coefficient of attribute recognition model[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2010,41(1):251-256.(in Chinese)薛剑光,周健,史秀志,等.基于熵权属性识别模型的岩体可爆性分级评价[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2010,41(1):251-256.
[2]Chen Y G,Yang X Q.Optimization for index of airline fleet reliability based on fuzzy grey association[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2010,6(3):101-105.(in Chinese)陈勇刚,杨晓强.基于模糊灰色关联的航空公司机队可靠性指标的优选[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(3):101-105.
[3]Chen Y G.Assessment model of airline fleet reliability based on BP neural network[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2011,41(2):138-143.(in Chinese)陈勇刚.基于BP神经网络的航空公司机队可靠性评价模型[J].数学的实践与认识,2011,41(2):138-143.
[4]Triner D A.The assessment of fleet equipment reliability[J].Reliability Engineering,1986,14(1):63-74.
[5]Duance P,Andrew T.Study general aviation aircraft reliability,NASA/CR-2001-210647[R].Washington,D.C.:NASA,2001.
[6]Yu G L.Study and application of the evaluation technology on the small sample aircraft system operational reliability[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2005.(in Chinese)余国林.小子样飞机系统使用可靠性评估方法研究与应用[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2005.
[7]Li G H.China southern airlines northern branch company reliability management research[D].Shenyang:Shenyang University of Technology,2007.(in Chinese)李光辉.南航北方公司客机可靠性管理研究[D].沈阳:沈阳工业大学,2007.
[8]Li K.Establish a maintenance production&safety index system for multiple fleets operation[J].Aviation Maintenance&Engineering,2009(5):42-43.(in Chinese)李坤.大型航空公司多机队维修安全生产指标体系的建立[J].航空维修与工程,2009(5):42-43.
[9]Pan Y.Research on the field reliability data collection and analysis techniques for civil aircraft[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2011.(in Chinese)潘佑.民机使用可靠性信息采集与分析技术研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2011.
[10]Jin Z P.A fleet aircraft reliability and single plane health monitoring research[D].Guanghan:Civil Aviation Flight University of China,2011.(in Chinese)金肇鹏.某机型机队可靠性及单机健康状况监控研究[D].广汉:中国民用航空飞行学院,2011.
[11]Xu F,Wang K,Liu Z B.Attribute interval recognition model based on projection pursuit weight for evaluation of stability of surrounding rock[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(8):2587-2591.(in Chinese)徐飞,王珂,刘造保.围岩稳定性评价的投影寻踪权重-属性区间识别模型[J].岩土力学,2010,31(8):2587-2591.
[12]Cheng Q S.Attribute recognition theoretical model withapplication[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,1997(1):12-20.(in Chinese)程乾生.属性识别理论模型及其应用[J].北京大学学报,1997(1):12-20.
[13]Wang Z X.Civil aircraft maintenance[M].2nd ed.Beijing:Civil Aviation Press of China,2009:11-53.(in Chinese)王再兴.民用航空器外场维修[M].2版.北京:中国民航出版社,2009:11-53.
[14]Chen Y G,Luo X L.Nonlinear dynamic assessment model of airline fleet equipment reliability[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2013,34(1):104-111.(in Chinese)陈勇刚,罗晓利.航空公司机队设备可靠性非线性动态评估模型[J].航空学报,2013,34(1):104-111.
[15]Li Q,Ling K.Attribute interval recognition model for synthetic index system’evaluation for sustainable development[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2004,34(28):6-11.(in Chinese)李群,凌亢.我国可持续发展指标体系属性区间识别综合评价模型及其应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2004,34(28):6-11.
[16]Zhang Q,Liu K,Gao Z Y.An application of attribute synthetic evaluation system in urban traffic planning[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,2002,22(6):113-120.(in Chinese)张强,刘克,高自友.属性综合评价系统在城市交通规划中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002,22(6):113-120.
[17]Jia Z Y,Zhao L,Fan Z.High-quality substation project evaluation based on attribute measurement interval theory[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2012,32(4):67-71.(in Chinese)贾正源,赵亮,范辀.基于属性测度区间理论的变电站优质工程评价体系[J].电力自动化设备,2012,32(4):67-71.
[18]Wen C P,Yang G L.The seismic stability evaluation of the rock and soil slope based on the attribute mathematical theory[J].China Railway Science,2010,31(5):8-14.(in Chinese)文畅平,杨果林.基于属性数学理论的岩土边坡地震稳定性评价[J].中国铁道科学,2010,31(5):8-14.
[19]Zou Q,Zhou J Z,Zhou C,et al.Flood disaster risk analysis based on principle of maximum entropy and attribute interval recognition theory[J].Advance in Water Science,2012,23(3):323-333.(in Chinese)邹强,周建中,周超,等.基于最大熵原理和属性区间识别理论的洪水灾害风险分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(3):323-333.
[20]Wen C P.Attribute recognition model and its application of fatalness assessment of gas burst in tunnel[J].Journal of Coal Society,2011,36(8):1322-1328.(in Chinese)文畅平.隧道瓦斯突出危险性评价的属性识别模型与实例[J].煤炭学报,2011,36(8):1322-1328.
[21]Zou Q,Zhou J Z,Yang X L,et al.A comprehensive assessment model for severity degree of dam failure impact based on attribute interval recognition theory[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2011,43(2):45-50.(in Chinese)邹强,周建中,杨小玲,等.属性区间识别模型在溃坝后果综合评价中的应用[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2011,43(2):45-50.
[22]Zhang X Q,Liang C,Liu H Q.Application of attribute recognition model based on coefficient of entropy to comprehensive evaluation of groundwater quality[J].Journal of Sichuan University:Engineering Science Edition,2005,37(3):28-31.(in Chinese)张先起,梁川,刘慧卿.基于熵权的属性识别模型在地下水水质综合评价中的应用[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2005,37(3):28-31.
[23]Xue J G,Zhou J,Shi X Z,et al.Assessment of classification for rock mass blastability based on entropy coefficient of attribute recognition model[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2010,41(1):251-256.(in Chinese)薛剑光,周健,史秀志,等.基于熵权属性识别模型的岩体可爆性分级评价[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2010,41(1):251-256.
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