地震经济损失评估研究综述
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摘要
地震经济损失评估是地震风险分析研究的重要组成部分,也是政府制定地震风险防范管理措施的基础和依据,因此如何准确评估地震造成的经济损失,具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章回顾了国内外地震经济损失评估研究的发展进程,对地震造成的直接经济损失、间接经济损失的评估方法进行了概括和总结,并通过分析指出运用模型评估时存在的困难和以待解决的问题。从总体上来看,国内外对于地震直接经济损失的研究均已形成了较为稳定的、系统的评估方法,但仍然存在无法整合社会经济这一整体进行评估的不足;而在间接经济损失评估时由于涉及领域广泛、受影响时间较长、各经济体间联系复杂等原因,很难得出较为精准的结果,因而其评估方法也仍然处于探索和研究之中。文章最后展望了今后地震经济损失评估研究的发展方向。
Risk is usually defined as the product of the probability and the consequence,so seismic economic loss estimation is an important component of seismic risk analysis.What's more,a reasonable loss estimation is a foundation and basis for the government to take earthquake risk prevention management measures.Therefore,how to accurately estimate the economic loss caused by the earthquake has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper reviews the development process of seismic economic loss estimation at home and abroad.The evaluation methods of direct and indirect economic loss caused by earthquake are summarized.The existing difficulties to use the model to estimate the seismic economic loss and problems to be solved are also pointed out.Seismic economic loss comprises two parts:direct economic loss and indirect economic loss.Direct economic loss generally refers to the decrease in physical property,including the damage of buildings,indoor property and infrastructure.Generally speaking,the research on direct seismic economic loss estimation,domestically or internationally,has already formed stable and systematic methods,but the problem is that it is still unable to integrate overall socio-economic entirely into seismic economic loss estimation.Indirect economic loss often consists of loss from factory's production interpretation,inter-industry loss,and the loss due to breaking the equilibrium state of the original economic system by seismic disaster.The research on indirect seismic economic loss estimation at home and abroad is still in the stage of constant exploration and improvement due to many reasons such as the wide range of affected areas,long time of impact and recovery,and the complex linkages among the economies,which result in that the indirect seismic economic loss estimation can't provide a more accurate result.Finally,this paper discusses the prospects for the development of study on the seismic economic loss estimation in the future.
Risk is usually defined as the product of the probability and the consequence,so seismic economic loss estimation is an important component of seismic risk analysis.What's more,a reasonable loss estimation is a foundation and basis for the government to take earthquake risk prevention management measures.Therefore,how to accurately estimate the economic loss caused by the earthquake has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper reviews the development process of seismic economic loss estimation at home and abroad.The evaluation methods of direct and indirect economic loss caused by earthquake are summarized.The existing difficulties to use the model to estimate the seismic economic loss and problems to be solved are also pointed out.Seismic economic loss comprises two parts:direct economic loss and indirect economic loss.Direct economic loss generally refers to the decrease in physical property,including the damage of buildings,indoor property and infrastructure.Generally speaking,the research on direct seismic economic loss estimation,domestically or internationally,has already formed stable and systematic methods,but the problem is that it is still unable to integrate overall socio-economic entirely into seismic economic loss estimation.Indirect economic loss often consists of loss from factory's production interpretation,inter-industry loss,and the loss due to breaking the equilibrium state of the original economic system by seismic disaster.The research on indirect seismic economic loss estimation at home and abroad is still in the stage of constant exploration and improvement due to many reasons such as the wide range of affected areas,long time of impact and recovery,and the complex linkages among the economies,which result in that the indirect seismic economic loss estimation can't provide a more accurate result.Finally,this paper discusses the prospects for the development of study on the seismic economic loss estimation in the future.
引文
[1]马玉宏,谢礼立.我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究.自然灾害学报,2001,10(3):56-63.
[2]Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters,National Research Council.The Impacts of Natural disas-ters:A Framework for Loss Estimation.Washington DC:The National Academies Press,1999:37-38.
[3]Gorddon P,Richardson H W.The Business Interruption Effects of the Northridge Earthquake,Lusk Center Re-search Institute,Research Report No.LCRI-95-01R.School of Urban and regional Planning,University of Southern California,Los Angeles,CA.1995.
[4]Toyoda T.Economic Impacts and Recovery Process in the case of the Great Hanshin Earthquake.Fifth U.S.-Japan Workshop on Urban Earthquake Hazard Reduction.Pasadena,Calif.1997:15-17.
[5]林均岐,钟江荣.地震间接经济损失研究综述.世界地震工程,2003,19(3):1-5.
[6]Panel on Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology,Com-mittee on Earthquake Engineering,National Research Council.Estimating Losses From Future Earthquake.Washington D.C:National Academy Press,1989:35-36.
[7]Algermissen S T,Steinbrugge K V.Seismic hazard and risk assessment:Some case studies.The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance,1984,9(30):8-26.
[8]Pielke R A.Hurricane Andrew in South Florida:Mesoscale Weather and Societal Responses.Boulder,Co-lo.:National Center for Atmospheric Research Institute,1995:155.
[9]Howe C W,Cochrane H C.Guidelines for the Uniform Definition,Identification,and Measurement of Econmic Damages from Natural Hazard Events.Program on En-bironment and Behavior Special Publication,1993,(28):19-20.
[10]Ellson R W,Milliman J W and Roberts R B.Measuring the regional economic effects of earthquake predictions.Journal of Regional Science,1984,24(4):559-579.
[11]Guimaraes P,Hefner F L and Woodward D P.Wealth and income effects of natural disasters:an economic analysis of Hurricane Hugo.Review of Regional Studies,1993,1(23):97-114.
[12]West C T,Lenze D G.Modeling the Regional Impact of Natural Disaster and Recovery:A General Framework and an Application to Hurricane Andrew.International Re-gional Science Review,1994,l(17):121-150.
[13]Friesma H,Caporaso J,Goldstein G,et al.Aftermath:Communities After Natural Disasters.Beverely Hills,Cali-fornia:Sage,1979:181-183.
[14]Wright J D,Rossi P,Wright S,et al.After the Clean-up:Long-Range Effects of Natural Disasters.Beverely Hills,California:Sage,1979:2-12.
[15]Wrigh J D.Rossi P H.Social Science and Natural Haz-ards.Cambridge,Massachusetts:Abt Books,1981:1-22.
[16]Wilson R.Earthquake Vulnerability Analysis for Economic Impact Assessment.Washington,D.C.:Information Re-sources Mangement Office,1982.
[17]Cochrane H.Assessment of damage from Hurricane Huge and the Loma Prieta earthquake.Ft.Collins.:Colorado State University,unpublished report,1992.
[18]Gordon P,Richardson H W.Business interruption effects of a major earthquake in the Newprot/Inglewood Fault Zone(NIFZ).Reprot submitted by The Planning Institute.School of Urban and Regional Planning.University of Southern California,to the National Committee on Property Insurance,Boston,Mass,1992.
[19]Kuribayashi E,Ueda O,Tazaki T.An econometric model of long-term effects of earthquake losses.13th Joint Meet-ing of US-Japan Panel on Wind and Seismic Effects,Tsukuba,1987.
[20]Kawashima K,Kanoh T.Evaluation of indirect economic effects caused by the1983Nihonkai-chubu,Japan,earthquake.Earthquake Spectra,1990,l(6):739-756.
[21]Narayan P K.Macroeconomic Impact of Natural Disasters on a Small Island Economy:Evidence from a CGE Model.Applied Economics Letters,2003,1(10):721-723.
[22]Okuyama Y.Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis:Past,Present,and Future.Economic Systems Research,2007,19(2):115-124.
[23]Rose A.Economic principles,issues,and research priori-ties in hazard loss estimation//Okuyama Y,Chang S E.Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters.New York:Springer,2004:13-36.
[24]Hallegatte S.An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina.Risk Analysis,2008,28(3):779-799.
[25]中国地震局.地震现场工作大纲和技术指南.北京:地震出版社,1998.
[26]周光全.简易房屋的地震灾害经济损失评估.地震研究,2007,30(3):265-270.
[27]陈顒,陈棋福,陈凌.地震损失预测评估中的易损性分析.中国地震,1999,15(2):97-105.
[28]周光全,毛燕,施伟华.云南地区地震受灾人口与经济损失评估.地震研究,2004,27(1):88-93.
[29]王中宇,陈颙,陈鑫连,等.中国经济系统地震易损性分析.自然灾害学报,1995,4(1):26-32.
[30]赵直,尹之潜.震后企业停产减产损失估计方法的研究.地震工程与工程振,2001,21(1):152-154.
[31]郭章林,刘明广,解德才.震灾经济损失评估的遗传神经网络模型.自然灾害学报,2004,13(6):92-96.
[32]都吉夔,张勤,宋立军,等.四川汶川8.0级地震间接经济损失评估方法.灾害学,2008,23(4):130-133.
[33]叶珊珊,翟国方.汶川地震经济损失的初步评估.2008年11月,广州,中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会第三届年会论文.http://hkarms.zapto.org:85/hkarms/Pub-lic_Docs/3rd_AM_Risk_Aly_Cnl_China_Astn_Ditr_Pvtn.pdf.
[34]Wu Jidong,Li Ning,Hu Aijun.Modeling Economic Impact of Wenchuan Earthquake on Sichuan Province Based on ARIO Model.Presentation at Asian Conference on Risk Assessment and Management2009,Beijing.
[35]Viscusi W K.The Value of Life:Estimates with risks by occupation and industry.Economic Inquiry,2004,42(1):29-48.
[36]Smith A.The Wealth of Nations.New York:Modern Li-brary,1937:43-58.
[37]梅强,陆玉梅.人的生命价值评估方法综述.中国安全科学学报,2007,17(3):56-61.
[38]杰弗里.萨克斯,费利浦.拉雷恩.全球视角的宏观经济学.上海:上海人民出版社,2004:111-112.
[39]罗祖德.次生灾害杀伤力不逊主震.文汇报,2008-06-04[2008-07-23].http://www.china.com.cn/news/zhuanti/zhcj/2008-06/04/content_15623049.htm.
[40]Atkisson A A,Petak W J,Alesch D J.Natural hazard ex-posures,losses and mitigation costs in the United States1970-2000.Transactions—Wisconsin Academy of Sci-ences,Arts and Letter,1984,1(72):106-112.
[41]张茵,蔡运龙.条件估值法评估环境资源价值的研究进展.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2005,41(2):317-328.
[42]张志强,徐中民,程国栋.条件价值评估法的发展与应用.地球科学进展,2003,18(3):454-463.
[43]张浩.环境价值评估方法简介.甘肃科技纵横,2006,35(1):66-67.
[2]Committee on Assessing the Costs of Natural Disasters,National Research Council.The Impacts of Natural disas-ters:A Framework for Loss Estimation.Washington DC:The National Academies Press,1999:37-38.
[3]Gorddon P,Richardson H W.The Business Interruption Effects of the Northridge Earthquake,Lusk Center Re-search Institute,Research Report No.LCRI-95-01R.School of Urban and regional Planning,University of Southern California,Los Angeles,CA.1995.
[4]Toyoda T.Economic Impacts and Recovery Process in the case of the Great Hanshin Earthquake.Fifth U.S.-Japan Workshop on Urban Earthquake Hazard Reduction.Pasadena,Calif.1997:15-17.
[5]林均岐,钟江荣.地震间接经济损失研究综述.世界地震工程,2003,19(3):1-5.
[6]Panel on Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology,Com-mittee on Earthquake Engineering,National Research Council.Estimating Losses From Future Earthquake.Washington D.C:National Academy Press,1989:35-36.
[7]Algermissen S T,Steinbrugge K V.Seismic hazard and risk assessment:Some case studies.The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance,1984,9(30):8-26.
[8]Pielke R A.Hurricane Andrew in South Florida:Mesoscale Weather and Societal Responses.Boulder,Co-lo.:National Center for Atmospheric Research Institute,1995:155.
[9]Howe C W,Cochrane H C.Guidelines for the Uniform Definition,Identification,and Measurement of Econmic Damages from Natural Hazard Events.Program on En-bironment and Behavior Special Publication,1993,(28):19-20.
[10]Ellson R W,Milliman J W and Roberts R B.Measuring the regional economic effects of earthquake predictions.Journal of Regional Science,1984,24(4):559-579.
[11]Guimaraes P,Hefner F L and Woodward D P.Wealth and income effects of natural disasters:an economic analysis of Hurricane Hugo.Review of Regional Studies,1993,1(23):97-114.
[12]West C T,Lenze D G.Modeling the Regional Impact of Natural Disaster and Recovery:A General Framework and an Application to Hurricane Andrew.International Re-gional Science Review,1994,l(17):121-150.
[13]Friesma H,Caporaso J,Goldstein G,et al.Aftermath:Communities After Natural Disasters.Beverely Hills,Cali-fornia:Sage,1979:181-183.
[14]Wright J D,Rossi P,Wright S,et al.After the Clean-up:Long-Range Effects of Natural Disasters.Beverely Hills,California:Sage,1979:2-12.
[15]Wrigh J D.Rossi P H.Social Science and Natural Haz-ards.Cambridge,Massachusetts:Abt Books,1981:1-22.
[16]Wilson R.Earthquake Vulnerability Analysis for Economic Impact Assessment.Washington,D.C.:Information Re-sources Mangement Office,1982.
[17]Cochrane H.Assessment of damage from Hurricane Huge and the Loma Prieta earthquake.Ft.Collins.:Colorado State University,unpublished report,1992.
[18]Gordon P,Richardson H W.Business interruption effects of a major earthquake in the Newprot/Inglewood Fault Zone(NIFZ).Reprot submitted by The Planning Institute.School of Urban and Regional Planning.University of Southern California,to the National Committee on Property Insurance,Boston,Mass,1992.
[19]Kuribayashi E,Ueda O,Tazaki T.An econometric model of long-term effects of earthquake losses.13th Joint Meet-ing of US-Japan Panel on Wind and Seismic Effects,Tsukuba,1987.
[20]Kawashima K,Kanoh T.Evaluation of indirect economic effects caused by the1983Nihonkai-chubu,Japan,earthquake.Earthquake Spectra,1990,l(6):739-756.
[21]Narayan P K.Macroeconomic Impact of Natural Disasters on a Small Island Economy:Evidence from a CGE Model.Applied Economics Letters,2003,1(10):721-723.
[22]Okuyama Y.Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis:Past,Present,and Future.Economic Systems Research,2007,19(2):115-124.
[23]Rose A.Economic principles,issues,and research priori-ties in hazard loss estimation//Okuyama Y,Chang S E.Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters.New York:Springer,2004:13-36.
[24]Hallegatte S.An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina.Risk Analysis,2008,28(3):779-799.
[25]中国地震局.地震现场工作大纲和技术指南.北京:地震出版社,1998.
[26]周光全.简易房屋的地震灾害经济损失评估.地震研究,2007,30(3):265-270.
[27]陈顒,陈棋福,陈凌.地震损失预测评估中的易损性分析.中国地震,1999,15(2):97-105.
[28]周光全,毛燕,施伟华.云南地区地震受灾人口与经济损失评估.地震研究,2004,27(1):88-93.
[29]王中宇,陈颙,陈鑫连,等.中国经济系统地震易损性分析.自然灾害学报,1995,4(1):26-32.
[30]赵直,尹之潜.震后企业停产减产损失估计方法的研究.地震工程与工程振,2001,21(1):152-154.
[31]郭章林,刘明广,解德才.震灾经济损失评估的遗传神经网络模型.自然灾害学报,2004,13(6):92-96.
[32]都吉夔,张勤,宋立军,等.四川汶川8.0级地震间接经济损失评估方法.灾害学,2008,23(4):130-133.
[33]叶珊珊,翟国方.汶川地震经济损失的初步评估.2008年11月,广州,中国灾害防御协会风险分析专业委员会第三届年会论文.http://hkarms.zapto.org:85/hkarms/Pub-lic_Docs/3rd_AM_Risk_Aly_Cnl_China_Astn_Ditr_Pvtn.pdf.
[34]Wu Jidong,Li Ning,Hu Aijun.Modeling Economic Impact of Wenchuan Earthquake on Sichuan Province Based on ARIO Model.Presentation at Asian Conference on Risk Assessment and Management2009,Beijing.
[35]Viscusi W K.The Value of Life:Estimates with risks by occupation and industry.Economic Inquiry,2004,42(1):29-48.
[36]Smith A.The Wealth of Nations.New York:Modern Li-brary,1937:43-58.
[37]梅强,陆玉梅.人的生命价值评估方法综述.中国安全科学学报,2007,17(3):56-61.
[38]杰弗里.萨克斯,费利浦.拉雷恩.全球视角的宏观经济学.上海:上海人民出版社,2004:111-112.
[39]罗祖德.次生灾害杀伤力不逊主震.文汇报,2008-06-04[2008-07-23].http://www.china.com.cn/news/zhuanti/zhcj/2008-06/04/content_15623049.htm.
[40]Atkisson A A,Petak W J,Alesch D J.Natural hazard ex-posures,losses and mitigation costs in the United States1970-2000.Transactions—Wisconsin Academy of Sci-ences,Arts and Letter,1984,1(72):106-112.
[41]张茵,蔡运龙.条件估值法评估环境资源价值的研究进展.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2005,41(2):317-328.
[42]张志强,徐中民,程国栋.条件价值评估法的发展与应用.地球科学进展,2003,18(3):454-463.
[43]张浩.环境价值评估方法简介.甘肃科技纵横,2006,35(1):66-67.
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