孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索
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摘要
通过建立孕震断层中锁固段的临界破坏—断裂力学与其蠕变过程联系,发现每个锁固段断裂点与加速应变能释放起点的累积Benioff应变之比,有着依赖于锁固段个数的指数律关系,指数函数的底数为1.48.在最后一个锁固段破坏以前,每一个锁固段的临界破坏断裂过程表示一个中等强度或更大震级预震(preshock)的产生过程;在最后一个锁固段破坏之后,主震将发生.通过相当数量地震实例的回溯性预测分析,表明这一指数律能可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.该方法能够在地震的中期、短期以及临震预报方面发挥作用.常数1.48很可能是表征中等强度或更大震级的预震和主震产生过程的普适常数.我们还对地震预报研究中某些有争议的问题进行了讨论,从理论和技术层面论证了本方法的适用性.
An important effort is carried out worldwide in the hope that, maybe sometime in the future, the grail of useful earthquake prediction will be attained.The seismological community has been criticized in the past for promising results by using various prediction techniques (e.g., anomalous seismic wave propagations, dilatancy diffusion, Mogi donuts, pattern recognition algorithms, etc.) that have not delivered to the expected level.The need for a reassessment of the physical processes has been recognized and more fundamental studies are pursued on crustal structures in seismogenic zones, historical earthquakes, active faults, laboratory fracture experiments, earthquake source processes, etc.There is even now an opinion that earthquakes could be inherently unpredictable.The argument is that past failures and recent theories suggest fundamental obstacles to prediction.It is true that useful predictions are not available at present and seem hard to get in the near future, but would it not be a little presumptuous to claim that prediction is impossible? Many past examples in the development of science have taught us that unexpected discoveries can modify completely what was previously considered possible or not. Here, we demonstrate that an exponential law for earthquake predictions has been discovered and this law has wide applicability for the predictions of catastrophe including earthquakes, landslides and avalanches.
An important effort is carried out worldwide in the hope that, maybe sometime in the future, the grail of useful earthquake prediction will be attained.The seismological community has been criticized in the past for promising results by using various prediction techniques (e.g., anomalous seismic wave propagations, dilatancy diffusion, Mogi donuts, pattern recognition algorithms, etc.) that have not delivered to the expected level.The need for a reassessment of the physical processes has been recognized and more fundamental studies are pursued on crustal structures in seismogenic zones, historical earthquakes, active faults, laboratory fracture experiments, earthquake source processes, etc.There is even now an opinion that earthquakes could be inherently unpredictable.The argument is that past failures and recent theories suggest fundamental obstacles to prediction.It is true that useful predictions are not available at present and seem hard to get in the near future, but would it not be a little presumptuous to claim that prediction is impossible? Many past examples in the development of science have taught us that unexpected discoveries can modify completely what was previously considered possible or not. Here, we demonstrate that an exponential law for earthquake predictions has been discovered and this law has wide applicability for the predictions of catastrophe including earthquakes, landslides and avalanches.
引文
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[2] Karplus W J.The Heavens are Falling:the Scientific Prediction of Catastrophes in Our Time,New York:Plenum Press,1992
[3] Wyss M.Why is earthquake prediction research not progressing faster? Tectonophysics,2001,338 :217～223
[4] Rundle J B,Gross S,Klein W,Ferguson C,et al.The statistical mechanics of earthquakes.Tectonophysics,1997,277:147～164
[5] Mora P,Place D.Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2413～2427
[6] Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2511～2523
[7] Ben-Zion Y.Dynamic ruptures in recent models of earthquake faults.Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids,2001,49:2209～2244
[8] Gross S,Rundle J.A systematic test of time-to-failure analysis.Geophys.J.Int.,1998,133:57～64
[9] Steven C J,Lynn R S.Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great Earthquakes.Pure Appl.Geophys,1999,155:279～306
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[12] Tang C A.Numerical simulation of progressive rock failure and associated seismicity.Int.J.Rock Mech.Min.Sci.,1997,34:249～261
[13] Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco bay region.J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871～9883
[14] Sornette D,Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes:implications for earthquake predictions.J.Phys.I France,1995,5:607～619
[15] Corral á.Dependence of earthquake recurrence times and independence of magnitudes on seismicity history.Tectonophysics,2006,424:177～193
[16] Papazachos B C,Scordilis E M,Papazachos C B,et al.A forward test of the precursory decelerating and accelerating seismicity model for California.Journal of Seismology,2006,10:213～224
[17] Ben-Zion Y,Lyakhovsky V.Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismicity patterns on earthquake faults.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2385～2412
[18] Lei X.How do asperities fracture? an experimental study of unbroken asperities.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2003,213:347～359
[19] Smalley R F,Turcotte D L,Solla S A.A renormalization group approach to the stick slip behavior of faults.J.Geophys.Res.,1985,90:1894～1900
[20] Hudson J A,Fairhurst C.Tensile strength,Weibull’s theory and a general statistical approach to rock failure.The Proceedings of the Southampton 1969 Civil Engineering Materials Conference,1969.901～914
[21] Wilson K G.Problems in physics with many scales of length.Sci.Am.,1979,241:158～179
[22] Bieniawski Z T.Time-dependent behaviour of fractured rock.Rock Mech.,1970,2:123～137
[23]Qin S Q,Jiao J J,Li Z G.Nonlinear evolutionarymechanisms of instability of plane-shear slope:catastrophe,bifurcation,chaos and physical prediction.Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering,2006,39:59～76
[24] 秦四清,王思敬,孙 强等.非线性岩土力学基础.北京:地质出版社,2008Qin S Q,Wang S J,Sun Q.Nonlinear Mechanics Fundaments for Rock and Soil(in Chinese).Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2008
[25] Mignan A,King G,Bowman D,Lacassin R,et al.Seismic activity in the Sumatra-Java region prior to the December 26,2004(M_w=9.0 9.3) and March 28,2005(M_w=8.7) earthquakes.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2006,244:639～654
[26] Papazachos B,Papazachos C.Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean area.PureAppl.Geophys.,2000,157:1663～1681
[27] Rundel J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2165～2182
[28] 彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度.中国地震,2003,19(4) :425～430.Peng K Y,Yin X C,He R.Accelerating strain release and earthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical point hypothesis.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2003,19(4) :425～430
[29] Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,et al.An observational test of the critical earthquake concept.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:359～372
[30] Mogi K.Earthquake Prediction,Tokyo:Academic Press,1985
[31] Kelleher J,Savino J.Distribution of seismicity before large strike slip and thrust-type earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,1975,80:260～271
[32] Bufe C G,Nishenko S P,Varnes D J.Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1994,142:83～99
[33] Scholz Ch H.Mechanism of seismic quiescences.PureAppl.Geophys.,1988,26:701～718
[34] Ide S,Beroza G C,Shelly D R,et al.A scaling law for slow earthquakes.Nature,2007,447:76～79
[35] Ito Y,Obara K,Shiomi K,et al.Slow earthquakes coincident with episodic tremors and slow slip events.Science,2007,315:503～506
[36] Kanamori H.Earthquake physics and real-time seismology.Nature,2008,451:271～273
[37] Segall P,Desmarais E K,Shelly D,et al.Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kilauea volcano,Hawaii. Nature,2006,442 :71～74
[38] 雷兴林,马胜利,闻学泽等.地表水体对断层应力与地震时空分布影响的综合分析-以紫坪铺水库为例.地震地质,2008,30(4) :1046～1064 Lei X L,Ma S L,Wen X Z,et al.Integrated analysis of stress and regional seismicity by surface loading-a case study of Zipingpu reservoir.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2008,30:1046～1064
[39] Richard A K,Richard S.A human trigger for the great quake of Sichuan? Science,2009,323 :322
[40] 赵祎喆,吴忠良,蒋长胜等.用地震资料估计的龙门山断裂深部形变及其对于汶川地震成因的意义.地质学报.2008,82(12) :1778～1787 Zhao Y Z,Wu Z L,Jiang C S,et al.Present deep deformation along the Longmenshan fault by seismic data and implications for the tectonic context of the Wenchuan earthquake.Aata Geologica Sinica(in Chinese),2008,82:1778～1787
[41] 苗青壮.中国大陆强震前应变释放特征[硕士学位论文].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2008.1～62 Miao Q Z.Strain release characteristics before strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland[Master' s degree thesis].Lanzhou:Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,2008.1～62
[42] 吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测--对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一).中国地震,1998,14(4) :1～9 Wu Z L.Self-organization criticality and earthquake prediction-a review on the current discussions about earthquake prediction(I).Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),1998,14(4) :1～9
[43] Tang C A,Xu X H.Evolution and propagation of material defects and Kaiser effect function.Journal of Seismological Research,1990,13(2) :203～213
[44] Bakun W H,Aagaard B,Dost B,et al.Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.Nature,2005,473:969～974
[45] Papazachos C B,Karakaisis G F,Scordilis E M,Papazachos B C.New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release.Tectonophysics,2006,423:83～96
[46] Xu X W,Deng Q D.Nonlinear characteristics of paleoseismicity in China.Journal of Geophysical Research,1996,101(B3) :6209～6231
[47] 陈章立,赵翠萍,王勤彩等.汶川M_s8.0级地震发生背景与过程的研究.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :455～463 Chen Z L,Zhao C P,Wang Q C.A study on the occurrence background and process of Wenchuan M_s8.0.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :455～463
[48] 陈颙.汶川地震是由水库蓄水引起的吗?中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(3) :257～259 Chen Y.Is Wenchuan earthquake caused by the reservoir water? Science in China(Earth Science),2009,52(2) :257～259
[49] 滕吉文,张永谦,闫雅芬.强烈地震震源破裂和深层过程与地震短临预测探索.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :428～443 Teng J W,Zhang Y Q,Yan Y F.Deep process of the rupture of strong earthquakes and exploration for the impending earthquake prediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :428～443
[50] 傅容珊,万柯松,崇加军等.地震前兆还是其他因素?-与“汶 川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探”作者商榷.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :584～589 Fu R S,Wan K S,Chong J J,et al.Earthquake auspice or other factor Discuss with authors of the paper “ The short term anomalies detected by broadband seismographs before the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China”.Chinese J.Geophys.,2009,52(2) :584～589
[2] Karplus W J.The Heavens are Falling:the Scientific Prediction of Catastrophes in Our Time,New York:Plenum Press,1992
[3] Wyss M.Why is earthquake prediction research not progressing faster? Tectonophysics,2001,338 :217～223
[4] Rundle J B,Gross S,Klein W,Ferguson C,et al.The statistical mechanics of earthquakes.Tectonophysics,1997,277:147～164
[5] Mora P,Place D.Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2413～2427
[6] Yin X C,Mora P,Peng K Y,et al.Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2511～2523
[7] Ben-Zion Y.Dynamic ruptures in recent models of earthquake faults.Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids,2001,49:2209～2244
[8] Gross S,Rundle J.A systematic test of time-to-failure analysis.Geophys.J.Int.,1998,133:57～64
[9] Steven C J,Lynn R S.Evolving towards a critical point:a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great Earthquakes.Pure Appl.Geophys,1999,155:279～306
[10] Allegre C J,Mouel J L Le,Provost A.Scaling rules in rock fracture and possible implications for earthquake prediction.Nature,1982,297:47～49
[11] González A,Vázquez Prada M,Gómez J B,et al.A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting:Insights from a simple stochastic model.Tectonophysics,2006,424:319～334
[12] Tang C A.Numerical simulation of progressive rock failure and associated seismicity.Int.J.Rock Mech.Min.Sci.,1997,34:249～261
[13] Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco bay region.J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871～9883
[14] Sornette D,Sammis C G.Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes:implications for earthquake predictions.J.Phys.I France,1995,5:607～619
[15] Corral á.Dependence of earthquake recurrence times and independence of magnitudes on seismicity history.Tectonophysics,2006,424:177～193
[16] Papazachos B C,Scordilis E M,Papazachos C B,et al.A forward test of the precursory decelerating and accelerating seismicity model for California.Journal of Seismology,2006,10:213～224
[17] Ben-Zion Y,Lyakhovsky V.Accelerated seismic release and related aspects of seismicity patterns on earthquake faults.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2002,159:2385～2412
[18] Lei X.How do asperities fracture? an experimental study of unbroken asperities.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2003,213:347～359
[19] Smalley R F,Turcotte D L,Solla S A.A renormalization group approach to the stick slip behavior of faults.J.Geophys.Res.,1985,90:1894～1900
[20] Hudson J A,Fairhurst C.Tensile strength,Weibull’s theory and a general statistical approach to rock failure.The Proceedings of the Southampton 1969 Civil Engineering Materials Conference,1969.901～914
[21] Wilson K G.Problems in physics with many scales of length.Sci.Am.,1979,241:158～179
[22] Bieniawski Z T.Time-dependent behaviour of fractured rock.Rock Mech.,1970,2:123～137
[23]Qin S Q,Jiao J J,Li Z G.Nonlinear evolutionarymechanisms of instability of plane-shear slope:catastrophe,bifurcation,chaos and physical prediction.Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering,2006,39:59～76
[24] 秦四清,王思敬,孙 强等.非线性岩土力学基础.北京:地质出版社,2008Qin S Q,Wang S J,Sun Q.Nonlinear Mechanics Fundaments for Rock and Soil(in Chinese).Beijing:Geological Publishing House,2008
[25] Mignan A,King G,Bowman D,Lacassin R,et al.Seismic activity in the Sumatra-Java region prior to the December 26,2004(M_w=9.0 9.3) and March 28,2005(M_w=8.7) earthquakes.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2006,244:639～654
[26] Papazachos B,Papazachos C.Accelerated preshock deformation of broad regions in the Aegean area.PureAppl.Geophys.,2000,157:1663～1681
[27] Rundel J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157:2165～2182
[28] 彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度.中国地震,2003,19(4) :425～430.Peng K Y,Yin X C,He R.Accelerating strain release and earthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical point hypothesis.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2003,19(4) :425～430
[29] Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,et al.An observational test of the critical earthquake concept.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:359～372
[30] Mogi K.Earthquake Prediction,Tokyo:Academic Press,1985
[31] Kelleher J,Savino J.Distribution of seismicity before large strike slip and thrust-type earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,1975,80:260～271
[32] Bufe C G,Nishenko S P,Varnes D J.Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region.Pure Appl.Geophys.,1994,142:83～99
[33] Scholz Ch H.Mechanism of seismic quiescences.PureAppl.Geophys.,1988,26:701～718
[34] Ide S,Beroza G C,Shelly D R,et al.A scaling law for slow earthquakes.Nature,2007,447:76～79
[35] Ito Y,Obara K,Shiomi K,et al.Slow earthquakes coincident with episodic tremors and slow slip events.Science,2007,315:503～506
[36] Kanamori H.Earthquake physics and real-time seismology.Nature,2008,451:271～273
[37] Segall P,Desmarais E K,Shelly D,et al.Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kilauea volcano,Hawaii. Nature,2006,442 :71～74
[38] 雷兴林,马胜利,闻学泽等.地表水体对断层应力与地震时空分布影响的综合分析-以紫坪铺水库为例.地震地质,2008,30(4) :1046～1064 Lei X L,Ma S L,Wen X Z,et al.Integrated analysis of stress and regional seismicity by surface loading-a case study of Zipingpu reservoir.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2008,30:1046～1064
[39] Richard A K,Richard S.A human trigger for the great quake of Sichuan? Science,2009,323 :322
[40] 赵祎喆,吴忠良,蒋长胜等.用地震资料估计的龙门山断裂深部形变及其对于汶川地震成因的意义.地质学报.2008,82(12) :1778～1787 Zhao Y Z,Wu Z L,Jiang C S,et al.Present deep deformation along the Longmenshan fault by seismic data and implications for the tectonic context of the Wenchuan earthquake.Aata Geologica Sinica(in Chinese),2008,82:1778～1787
[41] 苗青壮.中国大陆强震前应变释放特征[硕士学位论文].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所,2008.1～62 Miao Q Z.Strain release characteristics before strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland[Master' s degree thesis].Lanzhou:Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,2008.1～62
[42] 吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测--对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一).中国地震,1998,14(4) :1～9 Wu Z L.Self-organization criticality and earthquake prediction-a review on the current discussions about earthquake prediction(I).Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),1998,14(4) :1～9
[43] Tang C A,Xu X H.Evolution and propagation of material defects and Kaiser effect function.Journal of Seismological Research,1990,13(2) :203～213
[44] Bakun W H,Aagaard B,Dost B,et al.Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.Nature,2005,473:969～974
[45] Papazachos C B,Karakaisis G F,Scordilis E M,Papazachos B C.New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release.Tectonophysics,2006,423:83～96
[46] Xu X W,Deng Q D.Nonlinear characteristics of paleoseismicity in China.Journal of Geophysical Research,1996,101(B3) :6209～6231
[47] 陈章立,赵翠萍,王勤彩等.汶川M_s8.0级地震发生背景与过程的研究.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :455～463 Chen Z L,Zhao C P,Wang Q C.A study on the occurrence background and process of Wenchuan M_s8.0.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :455～463
[48] 陈颙.汶川地震是由水库蓄水引起的吗?中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(3) :257～259 Chen Y.Is Wenchuan earthquake caused by the reservoir water? Science in China(Earth Science),2009,52(2) :257～259
[49] 滕吉文,张永谦,闫雅芬.强烈地震震源破裂和深层过程与地震短临预测探索.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :428～443 Teng J W,Zhang Y Q,Yan Y F.Deep process of the rupture of strong earthquakes and exploration for the impending earthquake prediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :428～443
[50] 傅容珊,万柯松,崇加军等.地震前兆还是其他因素?-与“汶 川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探”作者商榷.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :584～589 Fu R S,Wan K S,Chong J J,et al.Earthquake auspice or other factor Discuss with authors of the paper “ The short term anomalies detected by broadband seismographs before the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China”.Chinese J.Geophys.,2009,52(2) :584～589
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