高坝风险分析的事件树法
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摘要
新世纪一批高坝将要在我国开工建设,这对我国的水电能源及国民经济的发展有着不可估量的作用,而高坝建设中,安全性是需要首先保证的。目前对高坝的风险分析方法有主观概率法、客观概率法等。从系统工程的角度出发,采用事件树方法对高坝的风险进行了探索研究,并给出了算例以说明该方法的有效性和实用性。
Many high dams will be constructed in China in new century. These dams will be very important to China's energy resources as well as to China's economic development. Dam safety is the first in the construction of dam, so that we must consider to the ongoing constructing dams. Now probability method is often used to make risk analysis of dam safety. This paper, viewed from the system engineering conception, adoptes the event-tree method to analyze dam safety and risks and gives an example to verify its effectiveness and practicability of such method.
Many high dams will be constructed in China in new century. These dams will be very important to China's energy resources as well as to China's economic development. Dam safety is the first in the construction of dam, so that we must consider to the ongoing constructing dams. Now probability method is often used to make risk analysis of dam safety. This paper, viewed from the system engineering conception, adoptes the event-tree method to analyze dam safety and risks and gives an example to verify its effectiveness and practicability of such method.
引文
[1]Icold Bulletin.Assessment In dam Safety Management[R].2002.
[2]邢林生.我国水电站大坝安全评价的新进展[J].水力发电,2002,(7):64-67.
[3]Aaron A,P Suresh.Risk Penalty Function Hazardous Waste Ma-nagement[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering,1986,112(1):105-122.
[4]Sage A P.Methodologies for Risk and Hazard assessment:A Sur-vey and Status Report[R].IEEE Transaction on Systems,Man and Cybernetics,1980,10(8):425-466.
[5]James D Engelhard.Information Theory In Risk Analysis[J].Jour-nal of Environmental Engineering,1992,118(6):890-904.
[6]Ang A H-S.Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design,Decision,and Reliability[M].New York:John Wiley and Sons Inc.1984.
[7]Tung Y K.Risk Analysis for Hydraulic design[J].Proc.of ASCE,J.of Hydr.Div.,1980,106(HY5):893-913.
[8]Humberto M M.Flood Safety Analysis[J].International Water Power&Dam Construction,1996,(5):21-24.
[9]D.哈特福德.大坝风险及业主的困境[J].水利水电快报,2001,22(2):4-6
[10]姜树海.水库调度演算的随机数学模型[J].水科学进展,1993,(4).
[11]Robin Fell,David S.etc.The Status of Methods for Estimation of the Probability of Failure of the Dams for Use in Quantitative Risk Assessment[C].第20届国际大坝会议论文集(Q76,R15),北京,2000.
[12]Ancold.Guideline on Risk Assessment(Draft)[S].2001.
[2]邢林生.我国水电站大坝安全评价的新进展[J].水力发电,2002,(7):64-67.
[3]Aaron A,P Suresh.Risk Penalty Function Hazardous Waste Ma-nagement[J].Journal of Environmental Engineering,1986,112(1):105-122.
[4]Sage A P.Methodologies for Risk and Hazard assessment:A Sur-vey and Status Report[R].IEEE Transaction on Systems,Man and Cybernetics,1980,10(8):425-466.
[5]James D Engelhard.Information Theory In Risk Analysis[J].Jour-nal of Environmental Engineering,1992,118(6):890-904.
[6]Ang A H-S.Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design,Decision,and Reliability[M].New York:John Wiley and Sons Inc.1984.
[7]Tung Y K.Risk Analysis for Hydraulic design[J].Proc.of ASCE,J.of Hydr.Div.,1980,106(HY5):893-913.
[8]Humberto M M.Flood Safety Analysis[J].International Water Power&Dam Construction,1996,(5):21-24.
[9]D.哈特福德.大坝风险及业主的困境[J].水利水电快报,2001,22(2):4-6
[10]姜树海.水库调度演算的随机数学模型[J].水科学进展,1993,(4).
[11]Robin Fell,David S.etc.The Status of Methods for Estimation of the Probability of Failure of the Dams for Use in Quantitative Risk Assessment[C].第20届国际大坝会议论文集(Q76,R15),北京,2000.
[12]Ancold.Guideline on Risk Assessment(Draft)[S].2001.
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