青藏高原东北部的库仑应力积累演化对大地震发生的影响
摘要
假定地震可以模拟为多层弹粘性介质中的位错,考虑大地震(M≥7.0)和GPS数据得出的长期构造加载为形变源,依据多层麦克斯韦弹粘性介质中位错产生的应力变化,计算得到了地震产生的应力变化,给出了青藏高原东北部1920年以来积累库仑破裂应力演化.地震破裂的断层长度、宽度和滑动量根据前人统计公式和野外地质调查得到.研究表明,20次M≥7.0地震中,除1990年共和地震、1952年当雄地震和1976年松潘双震的后一个事件外,17次大地震均发生在库仑破裂应力变化为正的区域,触发率达85%.本研究为中长期地震危险性估计在一定程度上提供了基础数据.
We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau since 1920. Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be driven by dislocations of large earthquakes (M≥7.0) and secular tectonic loading. The earthquake rupture parameters such as the fault rupture length, width, and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their statistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments. Our study shows that among 20 large earthquakes (M≥7.0) investigated, 17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive, with a triggering rate of 85%. This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation of large earthquakes in the northeast Tibetan Plateau.
We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau since 1920. Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be driven by dislocations of large earthquakes (M≥7.0) and secular tectonic loading. The earthquake rupture parameters such as the fault rupture length, width, and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their statistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments. Our study shows that among 20 large earthquakes (M≥7.0) investigated, 17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive, with a triggering rate of 85%. This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation of large earthquakes in the northeast Tibetan Plateau.
引文
①王庆良,张希,王文萍,等.2002.中国典型强震震后形变有效松弛时间研究.私人通讯.
邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,等.2002.中国活动构造基本特征[J].中国科学(D辑),32(12):1020-1030.
国家地震局地质研究所,宁夏回族自治区地震局.1990.海原地震断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社:1-265.
国家地震局兰州地震研究所.1992.昌马地震活动带[M].北京:地震出版社:207.
侯康明,邓起东,刘百篪.1999.对古浪8级大地震孕育和发生的构造环境及发震模型的讨论[J].中国地震,15(4):339-348.
阚荣举,张四昌,晏风桐,等.1977.我国西南地区现代构造应力场与现代构造活动特征的探讨[J].地球物理学报,20(2):96-109.
刘桂萍,傅征祥.2001.海原大地震对古浪大地震的静应力触发研究[J].地球物理学报,44(增刊):107-115.
马杏垣.1989.中国岩石圈动力学图[M].北京:地图出版社:1-68.
青海省地震局,中国地震局地壳应力研究所.1999.东昆仑活动断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社:1-186.
沈正康,王敏,甘卫军,等.2003a.中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究[J].地学前缘,10(增刊):93-100.
沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.2003b.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的粘弹性应力触发研究[J].地球物理学报,46(6):786-795.
滕吉文.1974.柴达木东盆地的深层地震反射波和地壳构造[J].地球物理学报,17(2):122-135.
万永革,王敏,沈正康,等.2004.利用GPS和水准测量资料反演2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震的同震滑动分布[J].地震地质,26(3):393-404.
徐锡伟.2000.藏北玛尼地震科学考察[G]∥中国地震年鉴.北京:地震出版社:327-329.
周民都,赵和云,马钦忠,等.1997.青藏高原东北缘及其邻区的地壳结构与地震关系初探[J].西北地震学报,19(1):58-69.
Bak P,Tang C.1989.Earthquakes as a self-origanized critical phenomenon[J].J Geophys Res,94:15635-15637.
Ben-Zion Y,Rice J R,Dmowska R.1993.Interaction of the San Andreas fault creeping segment with adjacent great rup-ture zones and earthquake recurrence at Parkfield[J].J Geophys Res,98:2135-2144.
Deng J,Sykes L R.1997.Evolution of the stress fieldin southern California andtriggering of moderate-size earthquakes:A200-year perspective[J].J Geophys Res,102:9859-9886.
Freed A M,Lin J.2001.Delayed triggering of the1999Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer[J].Na-ture,411:180-183.
Harris R A,Si mpson R W.1996.In the shadow of1857:The effect of the great Ft.Tejon earthquake on subsequentearthquakes in southern California[J].Geophys Res Lett,23:229-232.
Harris R A.1998.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and i mplications for seismic hazard[J].J Geophys Res,103:24347-24358.
Kanamori H.1983.Magnitude scale and quantification of earthquakes[J].Tectonophysics,93:185-199.
Li Y G,Leary P C,Aki K,et al.1990.Seismic trapped modelsin the Oroville and San Andreas fault zone[J].Science,249:763-766.
Li Y G,Ellsworth WL,Thurber C H,et al.1997.Observations of fault zone trapped waves excited by explosion at SanAndreas fault,central California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,87:210-221.
Li Y G,Aki K,Vidale J E,et al.1998.Adelineation of the Noji ma fault rupturedin theM7.2Kobe,Japan earthquakeof the1995using fault zone trapped waves[J].J Geophys Res,103:7247-7263.
Luco J E,Apsel RJ.1983.On the Green′s function for a layered half-space,part I[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,73:909-929.
Molnar P.1992.Areviewof the seismicity,recent faulting,and active deformation of the Tibetan Plateau[J].J Hi ma-layan Geol,31:43-78.
Molnar P,Chen WP.1983.Focal depths and fault plane solution of earthquakes under the Tibetan Plateau[J].J Geo-phys Res,88:1180-1196.
Molnar P,Deng Q.1984.Faulting associated withlarge earthquakes and the average rate of deformation in central andeastern Asia[J].J Geophys Res,89:6203-6228.
Molnar P,Lyon-Caen H.1989.Fault plane solutions of earthquakes and active tectonics of the Tibeteau andits margins[J].Geophys J Int,99:123-153.
Nabelek J L.1984.Determinationof Earthquake Source Parameters fromInversion of Body Waves[D]:[Ph D Disser-tation].Cambridge:Mass Inst Technol:1-202.
Nalbant S S,Hubert A,King G C P.1998.Stress coupling between earthquakesin northwest Turkey andthe north Ae-gean Sea[J].J Geophys Res,103:24469-24486.
Nur A,Mavko G.1974.Postseismic viscoelastic rebound[J].Science,183:204-206.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faultsin a half-space[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,82:1018-1040.
Papadi mitriou E E,Sykes L R.2001.Evolution of the stress fieldin the northern Aegean Sea(Greece)[J].Geophys JInt,146:747-759.
Papadi mitriou E,Wen X,Karakostas V,et al.2004.Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone of westernSichuan,China[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161:1683-1701.
Peltzer G,Crampe F,King P.1999.Evidence of nonlinear elasticity of the crust fromtheMW7.6Manyi(Tibet)earth-quake[J].Science,286:272-276.
Person WJ.1991.Seismological notes.March-April1990[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,81:297-302
Pollitz F F.1992.Postseismic relaxation theory on the spherical earth[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,82:422-453.
Pollitz F F,Sacks I S.1997.The1995Kobe,Japan,earthquake:Along-delayed aftershock of the offshore1944Tonan-kai and1946Nankaido earthquakes[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,87:1-10.
Rydelek P A,Sacks I S.1990.Asthenospheric viscosity and stress diffusion:A mechanismto explain correlated earth-quakes and surface deformationin NE Japan[J].Geophys J Int,100:39-58.
Scholz C.1990.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press:1-439.
Shen F,Royden L H,Burchfiel B C.2001.Large-scale crustal deformation of the Tibetan Plateau[J].J Geophys Res,106:6793-6816.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402:605-609.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since1939by earthquakestress triggering[J].Geophys J Int,128:594-604.
Tapponnier P,Xu Z,Roger F,et al.2001.Oblique stepwise rise and growth of the Tibet Plateau[J].Science,294:1671-1677.
US Geological Survey,Southern California Earthquake Center,California Division of Mines and Geology.2000.Preli mi-nary report on the16October1999M7.1Hector Mine,California,earthquake[J].SeismRes Lett,71:11-23.
Van der Woerd J,Ryerson FJ,Tapponnier P,et al.1998.Holocene left lateral slip rate determined by cosmogenic sur-face dating on Xidatan segment of the Kunlun Fault(Qinghai,China)[J].Geology,26(8):695-698.
Voisin C,Campillo M,Ionescu I R,et al.2000.Dynamic versus static stress triggering and friction parameters:Infer-ences fromthe November23,1980,Irpinia earthquake[J].J Geophys Res,105:21647-21659.
Wald DJ,Heaton T H.1994.Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the1992Landers,California earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84:668-669.
Wells D L,Coppersmith KJ.1994.Newempirical relationships among magnitude,rupture area and surface displacement[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84:974-1002.
Xu X,Chen W,Ma W,et al.2002.Surface rupture of the Kunlunshan earthquake(MS8.1),Northern Tibetan Plateau,China[J].SeismRes Lett,73:884-892.
Zeng Y.2001.Viscoelastic stress-triggering of the1999Hector Mine earthquake by the1992Landers earthquake[J].Geophys Res Lett,28(15):3007-3010.
Zhou H,Allen C R,Kanamori H.1983.Rupture complexity of the1970Tonghai and1973Luhuo earthquakes,China[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,73:1585-1597.
邓起东,张培震,冉勇康,等.2002.中国活动构造基本特征[J].中国科学(D辑),32(12):1020-1030.
国家地震局地质研究所,宁夏回族自治区地震局.1990.海原地震断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社:1-265.
国家地震局兰州地震研究所.1992.昌马地震活动带[M].北京:地震出版社:207.
侯康明,邓起东,刘百篪.1999.对古浪8级大地震孕育和发生的构造环境及发震模型的讨论[J].中国地震,15(4):339-348.
阚荣举,张四昌,晏风桐,等.1977.我国西南地区现代构造应力场与现代构造活动特征的探讨[J].地球物理学报,20(2):96-109.
刘桂萍,傅征祥.2001.海原大地震对古浪大地震的静应力触发研究[J].地球物理学报,44(增刊):107-115.
马杏垣.1989.中国岩石圈动力学图[M].北京:地图出版社:1-68.
青海省地震局,中国地震局地壳应力研究所.1999.东昆仑活动断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社:1-186.
沈正康,王敏,甘卫军,等.2003a.中国大陆现今构造应变率场及其动力学成因研究[J].地学前缘,10(增刊):93-100.
沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.2003b.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的粘弹性应力触发研究[J].地球物理学报,46(6):786-795.
滕吉文.1974.柴达木东盆地的深层地震反射波和地壳构造[J].地球物理学报,17(2):122-135.
万永革,王敏,沈正康,等.2004.利用GPS和水准测量资料反演2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震的同震滑动分布[J].地震地质,26(3):393-404.
徐锡伟.2000.藏北玛尼地震科学考察[G]∥中国地震年鉴.北京:地震出版社:327-329.
周民都,赵和云,马钦忠,等.1997.青藏高原东北缘及其邻区的地壳结构与地震关系初探[J].西北地震学报,19(1):58-69.
Bak P,Tang C.1989.Earthquakes as a self-origanized critical phenomenon[J].J Geophys Res,94:15635-15637.
Ben-Zion Y,Rice J R,Dmowska R.1993.Interaction of the San Andreas fault creeping segment with adjacent great rup-ture zones and earthquake recurrence at Parkfield[J].J Geophys Res,98:2135-2144.
Deng J,Sykes L R.1997.Evolution of the stress fieldin southern California andtriggering of moderate-size earthquakes:A200-year perspective[J].J Geophys Res,102:9859-9886.
Freed A M,Lin J.2001.Delayed triggering of the1999Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer[J].Na-ture,411:180-183.
Harris R A,Si mpson R W.1996.In the shadow of1857:The effect of the great Ft.Tejon earthquake on subsequentearthquakes in southern California[J].Geophys Res Lett,23:229-232.
Harris R A.1998.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadows,and i mplications for seismic hazard[J].J Geophys Res,103:24347-24358.
Kanamori H.1983.Magnitude scale and quantification of earthquakes[J].Tectonophysics,93:185-199.
Li Y G,Leary P C,Aki K,et al.1990.Seismic trapped modelsin the Oroville and San Andreas fault zone[J].Science,249:763-766.
Li Y G,Ellsworth WL,Thurber C H,et al.1997.Observations of fault zone trapped waves excited by explosion at SanAndreas fault,central California[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,87:210-221.
Li Y G,Aki K,Vidale J E,et al.1998.Adelineation of the Noji ma fault rupturedin theM7.2Kobe,Japan earthquakeof the1995using fault zone trapped waves[J].J Geophys Res,103:7247-7263.
Luco J E,Apsel RJ.1983.On the Green′s function for a layered half-space,part I[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,73:909-929.
Molnar P.1992.Areviewof the seismicity,recent faulting,and active deformation of the Tibetan Plateau[J].J Hi ma-layan Geol,31:43-78.
Molnar P,Chen WP.1983.Focal depths and fault plane solution of earthquakes under the Tibetan Plateau[J].J Geo-phys Res,88:1180-1196.
Molnar P,Deng Q.1984.Faulting associated withlarge earthquakes and the average rate of deformation in central andeastern Asia[J].J Geophys Res,89:6203-6228.
Molnar P,Lyon-Caen H.1989.Fault plane solutions of earthquakes and active tectonics of the Tibeteau andits margins[J].Geophys J Int,99:123-153.
Nabelek J L.1984.Determinationof Earthquake Source Parameters fromInversion of Body Waves[D]:[Ph D Disser-tation].Cambridge:Mass Inst Technol:1-202.
Nalbant S S,Hubert A,King G C P.1998.Stress coupling between earthquakesin northwest Turkey andthe north Ae-gean Sea[J].J Geophys Res,103:24469-24486.
Nur A,Mavko G.1974.Postseismic viscoelastic rebound[J].Science,183:204-206.
Okada Y.1992.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faultsin a half-space[J].Bull SeismSoc Amer,82:1018-1040.
Papadi mitriou E E,Sykes L R.2001.Evolution of the stress fieldin the northern Aegean Sea(Greece)[J].Geophys JInt,146:747-759.
Papadi mitriou E,Wen X,Karakostas V,et al.2004.Earthquake triggering along the Xianshuihe fault zone of westernSichuan,China[J].Pure Appl Geophys,161:1683-1701.
Peltzer G,Crampe F,King P.1999.Evidence of nonlinear elasticity of the crust fromtheMW7.6Manyi(Tibet)earth-quake[J].Science,286:272-276.
Person WJ.1991.Seismological notes.March-April1990[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,81:297-302
Pollitz F F.1992.Postseismic relaxation theory on the spherical earth[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,82:422-453.
Pollitz F F,Sacks I S.1997.The1995Kobe,Japan,earthquake:Along-delayed aftershock of the offshore1944Tonan-kai and1946Nankaido earthquakes[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,87:1-10.
Rydelek P A,Sacks I S.1990.Asthenospheric viscosity and stress diffusion:A mechanismto explain correlated earth-quakes and surface deformationin NE Japan[J].Geophys J Int,100:39-58.
Scholz C.1990.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press:1-439.
Shen F,Royden L H,Burchfiel B C.2001.Large-scale crustal deformation of the Tibetan Plateau[J].J Geophys Res,106:6793-6816.
Stein R S.1999.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence[J].Nature,402:605-609.
Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.1997.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since1939by earthquakestress triggering[J].Geophys J Int,128:594-604.
Tapponnier P,Xu Z,Roger F,et al.2001.Oblique stepwise rise and growth of the Tibet Plateau[J].Science,294:1671-1677.
US Geological Survey,Southern California Earthquake Center,California Division of Mines and Geology.2000.Preli mi-nary report on the16October1999M7.1Hector Mine,California,earthquake[J].SeismRes Lett,71:11-23.
Van der Woerd J,Ryerson FJ,Tapponnier P,et al.1998.Holocene left lateral slip rate determined by cosmogenic sur-face dating on Xidatan segment of the Kunlun Fault(Qinghai,China)[J].Geology,26(8):695-698.
Voisin C,Campillo M,Ionescu I R,et al.2000.Dynamic versus static stress triggering and friction parameters:Infer-ences fromthe November23,1980,Irpinia earthquake[J].J Geophys Res,105:21647-21659.
Wald DJ,Heaton T H.1994.Spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the1992Landers,California earthquake[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84:668-669.
Wells D L,Coppersmith KJ.1994.Newempirical relationships among magnitude,rupture area and surface displacement[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,84:974-1002.
Xu X,Chen W,Ma W,et al.2002.Surface rupture of the Kunlunshan earthquake(MS8.1),Northern Tibetan Plateau,China[J].SeismRes Lett,73:884-892.
Zeng Y.2001.Viscoelastic stress-triggering of the1999Hector Mine earthquake by the1992Landers earthquake[J].Geophys Res Lett,28(15):3007-3010.
Zhou H,Allen C R,Kanamori H.1983.Rupture complexity of the1970Tonghai and1973Luhuo earthquakes,China[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,73:1585-1597.
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