城市抗震防灾规划中次生火灾风险快速评估方法
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摘要
地震次生火灾风险评估是城市抗震防灾规划的重要内容之一。由于引起地震次生火灾的因素较多,因此,需要综合多因素进行地震次生火灾风险评估。从致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、环境因素三个方面研究地震次生火灾风险的评估方法,引入分类地块的概念,建立了致灾因子危险性评估的模型,以火灾荷载和人口密度作为财产损失和人员伤亡的衡量指标,评估承灾体易损性,并借助GIS的分析手段,发展了一套在抗震防灾规划中快速评估地震次生火灾风险的方法。案例研究的结果表明,该方法的评估结果能更全面地反映城市地震次生火灾风险的分布特征。
Post-earthquake secondary fire risk assessment is one of the important content in urban planning on earthquake resistance and disaster prevention.Integrated method is required to assess the post-earthquake fire risk for the reason that fire risks are affected by many factors,which can be classified into hazard,hazard-affected bodies and environment.In this paper,a rapid method was built to assess the post-earthquake fire risk based on GIS analysis.The method includes the statistics method for hazard risk assessment,matrix method for calculating the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies and the correction of environmental influence.The provided case study show good performance of this method for the urban planning on earthquake resistance and disaster prevention for a wide range of cities.
Post-earthquake secondary fire risk assessment is one of the important content in urban planning on earthquake resistance and disaster prevention.Integrated method is required to assess the post-earthquake fire risk for the reason that fire risks are affected by many factors,which can be classified into hazard,hazard-affected bodies and environment.In this paper,a rapid method was built to assess the post-earthquake fire risk based on GIS analysis.The method includes the statistics method for hazard risk assessment,matrix method for calculating the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies and the correction of environmental influence.The provided case study show good performance of this method for the urban planning on earthquake resistance and disaster prevention for a wide range of cities.
引文
[1]孟晓静.城市区域地震次生火灾风险评估及火蔓延模拟[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学,2009:1-44.MENG Xiaojing.Post-earthquake Fire Risk Assessment and Fire Spread Modeling in Urban Area[D].Hefei:University of Science andTechnology of China,2009:1-44.(in Chinese)
[2]马东辉,郭小东,王志涛.城市抗震防灾规划标准实施指南[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2008:1-219.MA Donghui,GUO Xiaodong,WANG Zhitao.Implementation Guide to Standard for Urban Planning on Earthquake Resistance and HazardousPrevention[M].Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press,2008:1-219.(in Chinese)
[3]向琴琴.基于GIS的地震次生火灾危险性评估及动态蔓延模拟[D].北京:北京工业大学,2005:1-72.XIANG Qinqin.Risk Assessment and Spreading Dynamic Simulation of Post-earthquake Fire Base on GIS[D].Beijing:Beijing University ofTechnology,2005:1-72.(in Chinese)
[4]赵思健.基于GIS的城市地震次生火灾危险性评价与过程模拟研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2006:1-149.ZHAO Sijian.Study on Risk Assessment and Simulation of Urban Post-earthquake Fire Based on GIS[D].Beijing:Institute of GeographicalSciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2006:1-149.(in Chinese)
[5]李贞,周栩.用层次分析法探讨地震次生火灾区划[J].华南地震,2008,28(1):72-77.LI Zhen,ZHOU Xu.Regionalization of earthquake-induced fire hazard based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method[J].South ChinaJournal of Selsmology,2008,28(1):72-77(in Chinese)
[6]钟江荣,张令心,赵振东,等.基于震害的地震次生火灾高危害区模型研究[J].地震工程与工程震动,2010,30(3):108-114.ZHONG Jiangrong,ZHANG Lingxin,ZHAO Zhendong,et al.Study on evaluation model of seismic secondary fire disasters based on seismicdamage[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2010,30(3):108-114.(in Chinese)
[7]李杰,江建华.城市地震次生火灾危险性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):87-91.LI Jie,JIANG Jianhua.Hazard analysis of urban post-earthquake fire[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(2):87-91.(in Chinese)
[8]赵振东,余世舟,钟江荣.建筑物震后火灾发生与蔓延危险性分析的概率模型[J].地震工程与工程震动,2003,23(4):183-187.ZHAO Zhendong,YU Shizhou,ZHONG Jiangrong.Probability model for hazard analysis of post-earthquake fire occurrence and spread amongbuildings[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2003,23(4):183-187.(in Chinese)
[9]连杰.基于GIS的城市地震次生火灾危险性区划研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2006.LIAN Jie.Study on Urban Post-earthquake Fire Risk Zoning Based on GIS[D].Beijing:Beijing University of Technology,2006.(in Chinese)
[2]马东辉,郭小东,王志涛.城市抗震防灾规划标准实施指南[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2008:1-219.MA Donghui,GUO Xiaodong,WANG Zhitao.Implementation Guide to Standard for Urban Planning on Earthquake Resistance and HazardousPrevention[M].Beijing:China Architecture and Building Press,2008:1-219.(in Chinese)
[3]向琴琴.基于GIS的地震次生火灾危险性评估及动态蔓延模拟[D].北京:北京工业大学,2005:1-72.XIANG Qinqin.Risk Assessment and Spreading Dynamic Simulation of Post-earthquake Fire Base on GIS[D].Beijing:Beijing University ofTechnology,2005:1-72.(in Chinese)
[4]赵思健.基于GIS的城市地震次生火灾危险性评价与过程模拟研究[D].北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2006:1-149.ZHAO Sijian.Study on Risk Assessment and Simulation of Urban Post-earthquake Fire Based on GIS[D].Beijing:Institute of GeographicalSciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,2006:1-149.(in Chinese)
[5]李贞,周栩.用层次分析法探讨地震次生火灾区划[J].华南地震,2008,28(1):72-77.LI Zhen,ZHOU Xu.Regionalization of earthquake-induced fire hazard based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method[J].South ChinaJournal of Selsmology,2008,28(1):72-77(in Chinese)
[6]钟江荣,张令心,赵振东,等.基于震害的地震次生火灾高危害区模型研究[J].地震工程与工程震动,2010,30(3):108-114.ZHONG Jiangrong,ZHANG Lingxin,ZHAO Zhendong,et al.Study on evaluation model of seismic secondary fire disasters based on seismicdamage[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2010,30(3):108-114.(in Chinese)
[7]李杰,江建华.城市地震次生火灾危险性分析[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):87-91.LI Jie,JIANG Jianhua.Hazard analysis of urban post-earthquake fire[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(2):87-91.(in Chinese)
[8]赵振东,余世舟,钟江荣.建筑物震后火灾发生与蔓延危险性分析的概率模型[J].地震工程与工程震动,2003,23(4):183-187.ZHAO Zhendong,YU Shizhou,ZHONG Jiangrong.Probability model for hazard analysis of post-earthquake fire occurrence and spread amongbuildings[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2003,23(4):183-187.(in Chinese)
[9]连杰.基于GIS的城市地震次生火灾危险性区划研究[D].北京:北京工业大学,2006.LIAN Jie.Study on Urban Post-earthquake Fire Risk Zoning Based on GIS[D].Beijing:Beijing University of Technology,2006.(in Chinese)
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