湖南地区分布式地震活动性模型在PSHA中的应用研究
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摘要
本文采用了空间光滑地震活动性模型,该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时发展了概率地震危险性分析新方法。根据三种地震目录资料建立了三种地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了湖南区域内的v3值分布特征,使用了两种典型的衰减模型,计算了50年内超越概率10%的地震动峰值加速度(PGA)分布。其分析结果显示PGA分布特征与中国地震动参数区划图大体一致,部分区域PGA提高,PGA达0.05g的区域显著扩大,其中包括邵阳、湘潭、吉首、怀化等重要城市,而这种PGA分布特征与该地区地震活动性特征是一致的。概率危险性曲线的结果表明常德等地区的潜在地震危险性比湖南区域内其他城市高。表明此模型用于地震危险性计算中是简便易行的,且具有较高的精度。尤其对于地质和地震构造信息缺乏的弱震区和中强震区,该方法作为替代方法并有着广泛的应用价值。
In this paper, we proposed a spatially smoothed seismicity modeling which does not require delineation of potential seismic zone, and developed the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Taking Hunan region as an example, we obtain seismic parameters by synthesizing three kinds of seismic data, and construct seismic model, then carry through the Gaussian smoothing, calculate precisely smoothing radius, and assign objectively weight of each model. For attenuation relationship, we choose attenuation model calculated by utilizing moderate and small instrumental records, which is more congruently applied in weak seismic region. In addition, we choose other attenuation model to reduce the uncertainty of single one. The results indicate that, at the level of 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period, peak acceleration in Changde area is relatively high, the areas where PGA>0.5m/s2 have been obviously broadened, and the regions where PGA>1m/s2 in the central and southern Hunan area have been aggrandized. In contrast, peak acceleration in Yueyang area is lower than current seismic hazard map of China. Since the peak ground motion distribution patterns in each metropolitan city of the North China are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, we conclude that our model is valuable to calculate seismic hazard in weak and moderate-to-large seismic region.
In this paper, we proposed a spatially smoothed seismicity modeling which does not require delineation of potential seismic zone, and developed the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Taking Hunan region as an example, we obtain seismic parameters by synthesizing three kinds of seismic data, and construct seismic model, then carry through the Gaussian smoothing, calculate precisely smoothing radius, and assign objectively weight of each model. For attenuation relationship, we choose attenuation model calculated by utilizing moderate and small instrumental records, which is more congruently applied in weak seismic region. In addition, we choose other attenuation model to reduce the uncertainty of single one. The results indicate that, at the level of 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period, peak acceleration in Changde area is relatively high, the areas where PGA>0.5m/s2 have been obviously broadened, and the regions where PGA>1m/s2 in the central and southern Hunan area have been aggrandized. In contrast, peak acceleration in Yueyang area is lower than current seismic hazard map of China. Since the peak ground motion distribution patterns in each metropolitan city of the North China are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, we conclude that our model is valuable to calculate seismic hazard in weak and moderate-to-large seismic region.
引文
陈培善,白彤霞,1991.震源参数之间的定量关系.地震学报,13(4):401—411.
黄玮琼,时振梁,曹学锋,1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取.地震学报,11(4):351—361.
胡聿贤,2006.地震工程学.北京:地震出版社,356—377.
胡聿贤主编,2001.中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306—2001)宣贯教材.北京:中国标准出版社,90—94.
金学申,刁建新,高淑云等,2004.历史有感地震目录及其在地震预报和安全性评价中的应用.中国地震,20(3):306—313.
胥广银,金严,1998.弱震和中等强度地震活动区地震活动性模型研究.见:中国地震区划学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社,43—49.
王海江,2000.中小地震地震动衰减关系的研究[学位论文].中国地震局地球物理研究所,34—39.
鄢家全,贾素娟,1996.我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则和方法.中国地震,12(2):173—194.
杨勇,2008.地震活动性模型在地震危险性分析中的方法研究及其应用[学位论文].中国地震局地球物理研究所,19—21.
俞言祥,2002.长周期地震动衰减关系研究[学位论文].中国地震局地球物理研究所,110—119.
Al-Tarazi E.,Sandvol E.,2007.Alternative models of seismic hazard evaluation along the Jordan-Dead Sea Transform.Earthquake Spectra,23(1):1—19.
Cornell C.A.,1968.Engineering seismic analysis.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,58(5):1583—1606.
Foteva G.,Ilieva M.,Botev E.,2006.Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in the Sofia area.http://www.phys.uni-sofia.bg/annual/arch/99/full/99-09-full.pdf
Frankel A.D.,1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States.Seism.Res.Lett.,66(4):8—21.
Frankel A.D.,Mueller C.S.,Barnhard T.P.et al.,2000.USGS national seismic hazard maps.Earthquake Spectra,16(1):1—19.
Herrmann R.B.,1977.Recurrence relations.Earthquake Notes,48(1/2):47—49.
Kafka A.L.,2002.Statistical analysis of the hypothesis that seismicity delineates areas where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in the central and eastern United States.Seism.Res.Lett.,73(6):990—1001.
Keilis-Borok V.I.,Knopoff L.,1980.Bursts of aftershock of strong earthquakes.Nature,283:259—263.
Lapajne J.K.,Motnikar B.S.,Zabukovec B.et al.,1997.Spatially smoothed seismicity modelling of seismic hazard in Slovenia.Journal of Seismology,1:73—85.
Lapajne J.K.,Motnikar B.S.,Zupancic P.,2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seismicity.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,93(6):2502—2515.
Pelaez J.A.,Hamdache M.,Casado C.L.,2003.Seismic hazard in Northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity:results for peak ground acceleration.Tectonophysics,372:105—119.
Pelaez J.A.,Casado C.L.,2002.Seismic hazard estimate at the Iberian Peninsula.Pure.Appl.Geophys.,159(11/12):2699—2713.
黄玮琼,时振梁,曹学锋,1989.b值统计中的影响因素及危险性分析中b值的选取.地震学报,11(4):351—361.
胡聿贤,2006.地震工程学.北京:地震出版社,356—377.
胡聿贤主编,2001.中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306—2001)宣贯教材.北京:中国标准出版社,90—94.
金学申,刁建新,高淑云等,2004.历史有感地震目录及其在地震预报和安全性评价中的应用.中国地震,20(3):306—313.
胥广银,金严,1998.弱震和中等强度地震活动区地震活动性模型研究.见:中国地震区划学术讨论会论文集.北京:地震出版社,43—49.
王海江,2000.中小地震地震动衰减关系的研究[学位论文].中国地震局地球物理研究所,34—39.
鄢家全,贾素娟,1996.我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则和方法.中国地震,12(2):173—194.
杨勇,2008.地震活动性模型在地震危险性分析中的方法研究及其应用[学位论文].中国地震局地球物理研究所,19—21.
俞言祥,2002.长周期地震动衰减关系研究[学位论文].中国地震局地球物理研究所,110—119.
Al-Tarazi E.,Sandvol E.,2007.Alternative models of seismic hazard evaluation along the Jordan-Dead Sea Transform.Earthquake Spectra,23(1):1—19.
Cornell C.A.,1968.Engineering seismic analysis.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,58(5):1583—1606.
Foteva G.,Ilieva M.,Botev E.,2006.Spatially smoothed seismicity modeling of seismic hazard in the Sofia area.http://www.phys.uni-sofia.bg/annual/arch/99/full/99-09-full.pdf
Frankel A.D.,1995.Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern United States.Seism.Res.Lett.,66(4):8—21.
Frankel A.D.,Mueller C.S.,Barnhard T.P.et al.,2000.USGS national seismic hazard maps.Earthquake Spectra,16(1):1—19.
Herrmann R.B.,1977.Recurrence relations.Earthquake Notes,48(1/2):47—49.
Kafka A.L.,2002.Statistical analysis of the hypothesis that seismicity delineates areas where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in the central and eastern United States.Seism.Res.Lett.,73(6):990—1001.
Keilis-Borok V.I.,Knopoff L.,1980.Bursts of aftershock of strong earthquakes.Nature,283:259—263.
Lapajne J.K.,Motnikar B.S.,Zabukovec B.et al.,1997.Spatially smoothed seismicity modelling of seismic hazard in Slovenia.Journal of Seismology,1:73—85.
Lapajne J.K.,Motnikar B.S.,Zupancic P.,2003.Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology for distributed seismicity.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,93(6):2502—2515.
Pelaez J.A.,Hamdache M.,Casado C.L.,2003.Seismic hazard in Northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity:results for peak ground acceleration.Tectonophysics,372:105—119.
Pelaez J.A.,Casado C.L.,2002.Seismic hazard estimate at the Iberian Peninsula.Pure.Appl.Geophys.,159(11/12):2699—2713.
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