郯城—庐江断裂带北段现今活动习性及地震危险性分析
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摘要
根据最近38年的地震资料,应用b值空间分布及多地震活动参数值组合的分析方法,分析了郯城—庐江断裂带北段各次级段落的现今活动习性,判别出潜在的强震、中强震危险段落。结果表明:郯城—庐江断裂带北段存在着4个具有不同现今活动习性的次级段落,其中,渤海中南段断层面现今活动习性处于中等应力背景下的相对闭锁状态,以小地震滑动为特征,应属于有一定应变积累的潜在强震危险段落;沈阳—昌图段断层面现今活动习性处于偏高应力背景下的相对闭锁状态,以稀疏小地震滑动为特征,有长期的应变积累,是未来最有可能发生中强震的段落;营口—海城段于1975年发生了7.3级强震后余震活跃,现处于震后震源断层面应力调整阶段,出现低-b值,高应力状态,以频繁中小地震滑动为特征,因此,短期内不可能再复发强震;辽东湾段落,其现今活动习性均具有偏低应力水平,以稀疏小震滑动为特征,未来不太久的时期内复发中强以上地震的可能性较小。
According to the latest seismic datum over past 38 years,using b-value spatial distribution combines several other seismic activity parameters,we analyse the activity on each segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone,and find out the strong and medium strong earthquake potential segments.The result indicates that there are 4 sub-segments of different activity in the northern segment of Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone,in which,middle south Bohai sea segment is in a locking position under middling stress background with the main characteristic of small earthquake sliding,belonging to a strong earthquake potential segment with certain strain accumulation;Shengyan-Tuchang segment is in a locking position under higher stress background with the main characteristic of fewer small earthquake sliding,belonging to a strong earthquake potential segment with long-term strain accumulation;Yingko-Haicheng segment is active after the 1975 Ms 7.3 earthquake,so this segment is in a stage of post-earthquake hypocenter stress adjustment with low b-value and high stress state,the main characteristic of this segment is frequent medium and small earthquake sliding with lower earthquake risk in near future.Liaodong Bay segment is under a low stress background with the main characteristic of fewer small earthquake sliding,and then,in a lower probability of medium and strong earthquake risk.Under low stress background with small earthquake sliding,the Liaodong Bay segment is in low strong earthquake potential.
According to the latest seismic datum over past 38 years,using b-value spatial distribution combines several other seismic activity parameters,we analyse the activity on each segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone,and find out the strong and medium strong earthquake potential segments.The result indicates that there are 4 sub-segments of different activity in the northern segment of Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone,in which,middle south Bohai sea segment is in a locking position under middling stress background with the main characteristic of small earthquake sliding,belonging to a strong earthquake potential segment with certain strain accumulation;Shengyan-Tuchang segment is in a locking position under higher stress background with the main characteristic of fewer small earthquake sliding,belonging to a strong earthquake potential segment with long-term strain accumulation;Yingko-Haicheng segment is active after the 1975 Ms 7.3 earthquake,so this segment is in a stage of post-earthquake hypocenter stress adjustment with low b-value and high stress state,the main characteristic of this segment is frequent medium and small earthquake sliding with lower earthquake risk in near future.Liaodong Bay segment is under a low stress background with the main characteristic of fewer small earthquake sliding,and then,in a lower probability of medium and strong earthquake risk.Under low stress background with small earthquake sliding,the Liaodong Bay segment is in low strong earthquake potential.
引文
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[3]易桂喜,闻学泽.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题[J].地震地质,2007,29(2):254-271.
[4]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,1995,1-514.
[5]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999,1-637.
[6]张国民,傅征祥,杜燮泰,等.地震分析预报引论[M].北京:中国科学出版社,2001,26-27.
[7]易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.由地震活动参数分析龙门山—岷山断裂带现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,2006,22(2):117-125.
[8]王琪延,涨卫红.统计学[M].北京:中国市场出版社,2007,299-304.
[9]丁国瑜,蔡文伯,于品清,等.中国岩石圈动力学概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1991,500-502.
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