与地震预测有关的关键物理问题
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摘要
本文介绍与当前地震预测/预报研究密切相关的若干关键物理问题,它们包括断层带结构、应力变化问题、统一考虑"静地震"、"慢地震"、蠕变与天然地震的宏观地震行为、地震的"成核"以及地震作为复杂系统的性质等问题的研究进展以及相关研究面临的机遇与挑战。未来通过对相关物理问题开展有针对性的观测、实验室实验和理论研究将极大地促进中国地震科学基础研究和地震预报的进一步发展。
The current progresses,challenge opportunity of several key physical problems i n earthquake prediction/forecast including the structure of fault zones,the str ess changes,the macroscopic behavior of silent and slow earthquakes,fault cree p and earthquakes,earthquake nucleation,earthquake characters as a complex sys tem are introduced in the paper.Combining the observational,theoretical and la boratory study aimed at those physical problems the Basic research in earthquak e science as well as earthquake prediction/forecast in China will be promoted gr eatly in the future.
The current progresses,challenge opportunity of several key physical problems i n earthquake prediction/forecast including the structure of fault zones,the str ess changes,the macroscopic behavior of silent and slow earthquakes,fault cree p and earthquakes,earthquake nucleation,earthquake characters as a complex sys tem are introduced in the paper.Combining the observational,theoretical and la boratory study aimed at those physical problems the Basic research in earthquak e science as well as earthquake prediction/forecast in China will be promoted gr eatly in the future.
引文
[1]吴忠良.地震预报的物理学问题.物理,1994,23(7):399-408
[2]Ma K F,Tanaka H,Song S R,Wang C Y,Hung J H,Tsai Yi B,Mori J,Song Y F,Yeh E C,Sone H,Kuo L W and Wu HY.Slip zone and energetics of a large earthquake from the Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Pro-ject.Nature,2006,444:473-476,doi:10.1038/nature05253
[3]Ben-Zion Y and Sammis C G.Characterization of fault zones.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2003,160:677-715
[4]Li Y G,Aki K,Vidale J E,Lee W HK,Marone C J.Fine structure of the Landers fault zone:Segmentation and the rupture process.Science,1994,256:367-370
[5]Li Y G,Aki K,Vidale J E and Alvarez MG.Delineation of the Nojima fault ruptured in theM7.2Kobe,Ja-pan,earthquake of1995using fault zone trapped waves.J.Geophys.Res.,1998a,103:7247-7263
[6]Li Y G,Aki K,Vidale J E and Xu F.Shallow structure of the Landers fault zone from explosion-generated trapped wave.J.Geophys.Res.,1999,104:20257-20275
[7]Li Y G,Vidale J E,Aki K and Xu F.Depth-dependent structure of the Landers fault zone from trapped waves generated by aftershocks.J.Geophys.Res.,2000,105:6237-6254
[8]Li Y G and Vernon F L.Characterization of the San jacinto fault zone near Anza,California,By fault zone trapped waves.J.Geophys.Res.,2001,106:30671-30688
[9]Peng Z G,Ben-Zion Y,Michael AJ and Zhu L P.Quantitative analysis of seismic fault zone waves in the rup-ture zone of the1992Landers,California,earthquake:evidence for a shallowtrapping structure.Geophys.J.Int.,2003,155:1021-1041
[10]刘俊来,岛田充彦.大陆地壳多震层成因与一个新的地壳断层带模式.科学通报,2000,45(10):1085-1091
[11]Li Y G,Vidale J E,Aki K,Xu F and Burdette T.Evidence of Shallow Fault Zone Strengthening After the1992M7.5Landers,California,Earthquake.Science,1998b,279:217-219
[12]Vidale J E and Li Y.G.Damage to the shallow Landers fault from the nearby Hector Mine earthquake.Na-ture,2003,421:524-526
[13]Faulkner D R,Mitchell TM,Healy D and Heap MJ.Slip on'weak'faults by the rotation of regional stress in the fracture damage zone.Nature,2006,444:922-925
[14]Li Y G,Chen P,Cochran E S,Vidale J E and Burdette T.Seismic evidence for rock damage and healing on the San Andreas Fault associated with the2004M6.0Parkfield earthquake.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2006,96:S349-S363,doi:10.1785/0120050803
[15]Mooney W D and Ginzburg A.Seismic measurements of the internal properties of fault zone.Pure appl.Geo-phys.,1986,124:141-157
[16]Scholz C H.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting.Cambridge Univ.Press,NewYork,1990,135-141
[17]Harris R A.Introduction to special sect ion:stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic haz-ard.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24347-24358
[18]Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,1999,402:605-609
[19]Kerr R A.Can great earthquakes extend their reach?Science,1998,280:1194-1195
[20]Hardebeck J L and Hauksson E.Role of fluids in faulting inferred from stress field signatures.Science,1999,285:236-239
[21]Marone C.Shaking fault loose.Nature,2000,408:533-535
[22]万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.几次复杂地震中不同破裂事件之间的“应力触发”问题.地震学报,2000,22(6):568-576
[23]Papadimitriou E E and Sykes L R.Evolution of stress field in the North Aegean Sea(Greece).Geophys.J.Int.,2001,146:747-759
[24]沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.华北地区700年来地壳应力场演化与地震的关系研究.中国地震,2004,20(3):211-228
[25]Nalbant S S,Hubert A and King G C P.Stress coupling between earthquakes in north west Turkey and the north Aegean Sea.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24469-24486
[26]Beroza G C and Zoback M D.Mechanism diversity of the Loma Prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of main-shock-aftershock interaction.Science,1993,259:210-213
[27]万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验.地震学报,2002,24(3):302-316
[28]石耀林.关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考,地震,2001,21(3):1-7
[29]Ziv A.On the role of multiple interactions in remote aftershock triggering:the Landers and the Hector Mine case studies.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2006,96:80-89
[30]Bebbington M,Vere-Jones D and Zheng X.Percolation theory:a model for rock fracture?Geophys.J.Int.,1989,100:215-220
[31]Robertson M C,Sammis C G,Sahimi M et al.Fractal analysis of three-dimensional spatial distributions of earthquakes with a percolation interpretation.J.Geophys.Res.,1995,100:609-620
[32]吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一).中国地震,1998,14(4):1-10
[33]Hill D P,Reasenberg P A,Michael A,Arabaz W J,Beroza G,Brumbaugh D,Brune J N,Castro R,Davis S and Depolo D.Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude7.3Landers.California,earthquake.Science,1993,260:1617-1623
[34]Harris R Aand Day S M.Dynamics of fault interaction:parallel strike-slip fault.J.Geophys Res.,1993,98:4461-4472
[35]Belardinelli M E,Cocco M,Coutant O and Cotton F.Redistribution of dynamic stress during coseismic rup-ture:evidence for fault interaction and earthquake triggering,J.Geophys.Res.,1999,104:14925-14945
[36]West M,Sanchez J J and McNutt S R.Periodically Triggered Seismicity at Mount Wrangell,Alaska,After the Sumatra Earthquake.Science,2005,308:1144-1146
[37]Cocco M and Rice J R.Pore pressure and poroelasticity effects in Coulomb stress analysis of earthquake inter-actions.J.Geophys.Res.,2002,107(B2):ESE2-1-17
[38]Streit J E and Cox S F.Fluid pressures at hypocenters of mod-erate to large earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,2001,106:2235-2243
[39]Tibi R,Wiens D and Inoue H.Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the2002Tonga sequences,Nature,2003,424:921-952
[40]Gomberg J.Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity following the MW=7.3Landers,California,earth-quake.J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101:751-764
[41]Beroza G C,Jordan TH.Searching for slowand silent earthquakes using free oscillations.J.Geophys.Res.,1990,95:2485-2510
[42]Crescentini L,Amoruso A,Scarpa R.Constraints on slowearthquake dynamics from a swarm in central Italy.Science,1999,286:212-214
[43]吴忠良.地震学中的“暗物质”:“静地震”与地震预测研究的未来.国际地震动态,2001(9):1-4
[44]Rogers G and Dragert H.Episodic tremor and slip on the Cascadia subduction zone:the chatter of silent slip.Science,2003,300:1942-1943,doi:10.1126/science.1084783
[45]Shelly D R,Beroza G C,Ide S and Nakamula S.Low-frequency earthquakes in Shikoku,Japan,and their re-lationship to episodic tremor and slip.Nature,2006,442:188-191,doi:10.1038/nature04931
[46]Ito Y,Obara K,Shiomi K,Sekine S and Hirose H.Slow earthquakes coincident with episodic tremors and slow slip events.Science,2007,315:503-506,doi:10.1126/science.1134454
[47]菊地正幸,竹内均.SH型地震,地震,1970,23(2):304-312
[48]Rice J R.Spatio-temporal complexity of slip on a fault,J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9885-9908
[49]Dieterich J H.Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state-dependent strength.Tectonophysics,1992,211:115-134
[50]Ellsworth W L and Beroza G C.Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase.Science,1995,268:851-855
[51]Mori J and Kanamori H.Initial rupture of earthquake in the1995Ridgecrest,California sequence.Geophysical Research Letters,1996,23:2437-2440
[52]Ohnaka M.Critical size of the nucleation zone of earthquake rupture interred from immediate foreshock activi-ty,J.Phys.Earth,1993,41:45-56
[53]Dodge D A,Beroza G C and Ellsworth W L.Detailed observations of California foreshock sequences:implica-tions for the earthquake initiation process,J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101:22371-22392
[54]刘启元,吴建春.论地震数值预报—关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考,地学前缘,2003,10(suppl):217-224
[2]Ma K F,Tanaka H,Song S R,Wang C Y,Hung J H,Tsai Yi B,Mori J,Song Y F,Yeh E C,Sone H,Kuo L W and Wu HY.Slip zone and energetics of a large earthquake from the Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Pro-ject.Nature,2006,444:473-476,doi:10.1038/nature05253
[3]Ben-Zion Y and Sammis C G.Characterization of fault zones.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2003,160:677-715
[4]Li Y G,Aki K,Vidale J E,Lee W HK,Marone C J.Fine structure of the Landers fault zone:Segmentation and the rupture process.Science,1994,256:367-370
[5]Li Y G,Aki K,Vidale J E and Alvarez MG.Delineation of the Nojima fault ruptured in theM7.2Kobe,Ja-pan,earthquake of1995using fault zone trapped waves.J.Geophys.Res.,1998a,103:7247-7263
[6]Li Y G,Aki K,Vidale J E and Xu F.Shallow structure of the Landers fault zone from explosion-generated trapped wave.J.Geophys.Res.,1999,104:20257-20275
[7]Li Y G,Vidale J E,Aki K and Xu F.Depth-dependent structure of the Landers fault zone from trapped waves generated by aftershocks.J.Geophys.Res.,2000,105:6237-6254
[8]Li Y G and Vernon F L.Characterization of the San jacinto fault zone near Anza,California,By fault zone trapped waves.J.Geophys.Res.,2001,106:30671-30688
[9]Peng Z G,Ben-Zion Y,Michael AJ and Zhu L P.Quantitative analysis of seismic fault zone waves in the rup-ture zone of the1992Landers,California,earthquake:evidence for a shallowtrapping structure.Geophys.J.Int.,2003,155:1021-1041
[10]刘俊来,岛田充彦.大陆地壳多震层成因与一个新的地壳断层带模式.科学通报,2000,45(10):1085-1091
[11]Li Y G,Vidale J E,Aki K,Xu F and Burdette T.Evidence of Shallow Fault Zone Strengthening After the1992M7.5Landers,California,Earthquake.Science,1998b,279:217-219
[12]Vidale J E and Li Y.G.Damage to the shallow Landers fault from the nearby Hector Mine earthquake.Na-ture,2003,421:524-526
[13]Faulkner D R,Mitchell TM,Healy D and Heap MJ.Slip on'weak'faults by the rotation of regional stress in the fracture damage zone.Nature,2006,444:922-925
[14]Li Y G,Chen P,Cochran E S,Vidale J E and Burdette T.Seismic evidence for rock damage and healing on the San Andreas Fault associated with the2004M6.0Parkfield earthquake.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2006,96:S349-S363,doi:10.1785/0120050803
[15]Mooney W D and Ginzburg A.Seismic measurements of the internal properties of fault zone.Pure appl.Geo-phys.,1986,124:141-157
[16]Scholz C H.The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting.Cambridge Univ.Press,NewYork,1990,135-141
[17]Harris R A.Introduction to special sect ion:stress triggers,stress shadows,and implications for seismic haz-ard.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24347-24358
[18]Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,1999,402:605-609
[19]Kerr R A.Can great earthquakes extend their reach?Science,1998,280:1194-1195
[20]Hardebeck J L and Hauksson E.Role of fluids in faulting inferred from stress field signatures.Science,1999,285:236-239
[21]Marone C.Shaking fault loose.Nature,2000,408:533-535
[22]万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.几次复杂地震中不同破裂事件之间的“应力触发”问题.地震学报,2000,22(6):568-576
[23]Papadimitriou E E and Sykes L R.Evolution of stress field in the North Aegean Sea(Greece).Geophys.J.Int.,2001,146:747-759
[24]沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.华北地区700年来地壳应力场演化与地震的关系研究.中国地震,2004,20(3):211-228
[25]Nalbant S S,Hubert A and King G C P.Stress coupling between earthquakes in north west Turkey and the north Aegean Sea.J.Geophys.Res.,1998,103:24469-24486
[26]Beroza G C and Zoback M D.Mechanism diversity of the Loma Prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of main-shock-aftershock interaction.Science,1993,259:210-213
[27]万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验.地震学报,2002,24(3):302-316
[28]石耀林.关于应力触发和应力影概念在地震预报中应用的一些思考,地震,2001,21(3):1-7
[29]Ziv A.On the role of multiple interactions in remote aftershock triggering:the Landers and the Hector Mine case studies.Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2006,96:80-89
[30]Bebbington M,Vere-Jones D and Zheng X.Percolation theory:a model for rock fracture?Geophys.J.Int.,1989,100:215-220
[31]Robertson M C,Sammis C G,Sahimi M et al.Fractal analysis of three-dimensional spatial distributions of earthquakes with a percolation interpretation.J.Geophys.Res.,1995,100:609-620
[32]吴忠良.自组织临界性与地震预测对目前地震预测问题争论的评述(之一).中国地震,1998,14(4):1-10
[33]Hill D P,Reasenberg P A,Michael A,Arabaz W J,Beroza G,Brumbaugh D,Brune J N,Castro R,Davis S and Depolo D.Seismicity remotely triggered by the magnitude7.3Landers.California,earthquake.Science,1993,260:1617-1623
[34]Harris R Aand Day S M.Dynamics of fault interaction:parallel strike-slip fault.J.Geophys Res.,1993,98:4461-4472
[35]Belardinelli M E,Cocco M,Coutant O and Cotton F.Redistribution of dynamic stress during coseismic rup-ture:evidence for fault interaction and earthquake triggering,J.Geophys.Res.,1999,104:14925-14945
[36]West M,Sanchez J J and McNutt S R.Periodically Triggered Seismicity at Mount Wrangell,Alaska,After the Sumatra Earthquake.Science,2005,308:1144-1146
[37]Cocco M and Rice J R.Pore pressure and poroelasticity effects in Coulomb stress analysis of earthquake inter-actions.J.Geophys.Res.,2002,107(B2):ESE2-1-17
[38]Streit J E and Cox S F.Fluid pressures at hypocenters of mod-erate to large earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,2001,106:2235-2243
[39]Tibi R,Wiens D and Inoue H.Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the2002Tonga sequences,Nature,2003,424:921-952
[40]Gomberg J.Stress/strain changes and triggered seismicity following the MW=7.3Landers,California,earth-quake.J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101:751-764
[41]Beroza G C,Jordan TH.Searching for slowand silent earthquakes using free oscillations.J.Geophys.Res.,1990,95:2485-2510
[42]Crescentini L,Amoruso A,Scarpa R.Constraints on slowearthquake dynamics from a swarm in central Italy.Science,1999,286:212-214
[43]吴忠良.地震学中的“暗物质”:“静地震”与地震预测研究的未来.国际地震动态,2001(9):1-4
[44]Rogers G and Dragert H.Episodic tremor and slip on the Cascadia subduction zone:the chatter of silent slip.Science,2003,300:1942-1943,doi:10.1126/science.1084783
[45]Shelly D R,Beroza G C,Ide S and Nakamula S.Low-frequency earthquakes in Shikoku,Japan,and their re-lationship to episodic tremor and slip.Nature,2006,442:188-191,doi:10.1038/nature04931
[46]Ito Y,Obara K,Shiomi K,Sekine S and Hirose H.Slow earthquakes coincident with episodic tremors and slow slip events.Science,2007,315:503-506,doi:10.1126/science.1134454
[47]菊地正幸,竹内均.SH型地震,地震,1970,23(2):304-312
[48]Rice J R.Spatio-temporal complexity of slip on a fault,J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9885-9908
[49]Dieterich J H.Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state-dependent strength.Tectonophysics,1992,211:115-134
[50]Ellsworth W L and Beroza G C.Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase.Science,1995,268:851-855
[51]Mori J and Kanamori H.Initial rupture of earthquake in the1995Ridgecrest,California sequence.Geophysical Research Letters,1996,23:2437-2440
[52]Ohnaka M.Critical size of the nucleation zone of earthquake rupture interred from immediate foreshock activi-ty,J.Phys.Earth,1993,41:45-56
[53]Dodge D A,Beroza G C and Ellsworth W L.Detailed observations of California foreshock sequences:implica-tions for the earthquake initiation process,J.Geophys.Res.,1996,101:22371-22392
[54]刘启元,吴建春.论地震数值预报—关于我国地震预报研究发展战略的思考,地学前缘,2003,10(suppl):217-224
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