建筑物地震损失估计方法对比分析
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摘要
合理而准确地确定建筑物的地震损失是当今防震减灾研究的一个主要课题,也是地震保险费率厘定的前提。目前,我国已经在地震发生概率、场地类型、结构性能、财产分布等方面积累了许多震害统计资料。同时,不断应用地震学、抗震工程学和计算方法方面新的研究成果于地震损失的计算,形成了几种常见的损失估计思路和方法。这其中主要包括传统的地震灾害损失风险评估方法、基于动力可靠度的损失分析方法和基于结构性能的损失确定方法。从合理性和适用性的角度,对这3种方法进行了评述和比较,以此看出各种方法的优点和局限性以及分析思路的发展演变过程,并希望从中能够看出今后研究工作的一些方向。
Precise estimation of earthquake losses is a major subject of today's research on disaster reduction and a presupposition for determination of earthquake insurance premium rate.So far,a great quantity of seismic damage statistics,such as earthquake occurring probability,site type,structural behavior and property distribution etc.have been accumulated in China.At the same time,the newly progress in the field of seismology,earthquake engineering and numerical methods make the estimation available and several major methods have been proposed,which mainly comprised the traditional earthquake loss risk estimation method,dynamic reliability-based method and structural performancebased method.In this paper,these three methods will be presented and the comparison will be made between them from the aspects of rationality and applicability,hoping to show the evolution of them and give some clues to the future research direction.
Precise estimation of earthquake losses is a major subject of today's research on disaster reduction and a presupposition for determination of earthquake insurance premium rate.So far,a great quantity of seismic damage statistics,such as earthquake occurring probability,site type,structural behavior and property distribution etc.have been accumulated in China.At the same time,the newly progress in the field of seismology,earthquake engineering and numerical methods make the estimation available and several major methods have been proposed,which mainly comprised the traditional earthquake loss risk estimation method,dynamic reliability-based method and structural performancebased method.In this paper,these three methods will be presented and the comparison will be made between them from the aspects of rationality and applicability,hoping to show the evolution of them and give some clues to the future research direction.
引文
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[14]吕红山.基于地震动参数的灾害风险分析[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2004.
[2]朱建钢,等.地震保险净费率之厘定的工程学方法研究[J].四川地震,1995,(3):53-60.
[3]杨新华.基于结构动力可靠性的工业建筑物的地震保险[J].四川建筑科学研究,1996,(4):45-47.
[4]尹之潜.结构易损性分类和未来地震灾害估计[J].中国地震,1996,(3):49-55.
[5]李桂青,等.结构动力可靠性理论及其应用[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.
[6]马宏旺,吕西林.建筑结构地震直接经济损失估计方法[J].地震工程与工程振动(待发表).
[7]陶正如.城市地震风险评估和管理中的两个问题[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2003.
[8]PriestlyM J N,KowalskyM J.D irect d isplacem ent-based seism ic design of concrete bu ild ings[J].Bu lletin of the New Zealand Society forEarthquake Engineering,2000,33(4):421-444.
[9]Cornell C A.Engineering Seism ic R isk Analysis[J].BSSA.1968,58:1583-1606.
[10]赵国藩,等.结构可靠度理论[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2000.
[11]B ruce R.E llingwood.Earthquake risk assessm ent of bu ild ing structures[J].Reliab ility Engineering and System Safety,2001,74:251-993.
[12]Fajfar P.A non linear analysisi m ethod for performance-based seism ic design[J].Earthquake Spectra,2000,16(3):573-592.
[13]Gupta B,EER IM,Kunnath K.Adaptive spectra-based pushover procedure for seism ic evaluation of structure[J].Earthquake Spectra,2000,16(2).
[14]吕红山.基于地震动参数的灾害风险分析[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2004.
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