由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性

英文篇名：Study on Fault Sliding Behaviors and Strong-earthquake Risk of the Longmenshan-Minshan Fault Zones from Current Seismicity Parameters
中文刊名：中国地震
英文刊名：Earthquake Research in China
作者：易桂喜 ; 闻学泽 ; 王思维 ; 龙锋 ; 范军
英文作者：Yi Guixi 1 ; 2) Wen Xueze 2) Wang Siwei 2) Long Feng 2) Fan Jun 1 ; 2)1)Chengdu University of Technology ; Chengdu 610059 ; China2)Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province ; Chengdu 610041 ; China
中文关键词：地震活动参数 ; 断裂活动习性 ; 强震危险性 ; 龙门山-岷山断裂带
英文关键词：Seismicity parameters Fault-sliding behaviors Earthquake risk Longmenshan and Minshan fault zones
出版日期：2006-06-30
机构：成都理工大学,四川省地震局,四川省地震局,四川省地震局,成都理工大学成都市二仙桥东三路1号610059四川省地震局,成都市人民南路三段29号610041,成都市人民南路三段29号610041,成都市人民南路三段29号610041,成都市人民南路三段29号610041,成都市二仙桥东三路1号610059四川省地震局,成都市人民南路三段29号610041
年：2006
期：02
出版单位：中国地震

摘要

根据最近28年的区域台网地震资料,利用b值空间分布及断裂带分段的多地震活动参数值的组合方法,结合历史强震背景,分析了沿川北龙门山-岷山断裂带不同断裂段的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险段落。研究结果表明:龙门山断裂带中-南段存在6个具有不同现今活动习性的段落,其中,绵竹-茂县段处于相对高应力背景下的频繁中-小震活动状态,被认为是龙门山断裂带上未来最可能发生强震的地段;江油-平武段处于相对高应力背景下的稀疏中-小震活动状态,未来有可能发生中强地震。而岷山断裂带中的岷江断裂段和虎牙断裂段,以及叠溪隐伏逆断层地区均具有相对偏低的应力水平,可能与其不久前分别发生过大地震和强震有关,未来不太长的时期内复发大地震的可能性较小。
Based on seismic data of regional network for the last 28 years and activity background of strong historical earthquakes, we have analyzed current fault sliding behaviors for various segments of the Longmenshan-Minshan fault zones, northern Sichuan, and preliminarily identified the risky fault-segments on which potential strong earthquakes would occur, from the method combining b-value spatial distributions and combinations of multiple seismicity-parameter values. The result shows that 6 fault-segments with different sliding behaviors exist currently along the central-southern portion of the Longmenshan fault zone. Of which, the segment of Mianzhu-Maoxian is now characterized by the sliding of seismicity of frequently moderate to small-size earthquakes under relatively high stress and believed to be the most on the longmenshan fault zone for strong earthquakes occurring in the future; And the segment of Jiangyou-Pingwu is characterized by the sliding of low seismicity of moderate to small earthquakes under relatively high stress, on which moderate-strong earthquakes maybe occur in the future. While, our analysis also indicates that two segments the Minjiang and the Huya segments on the Minshan fault zone, as well as the Diexi segment where a blind-thrust fault would exist, are now all under relatively low stress that are possibly related to the relatively short lapsed times from the latest large or strong earthquakes on the three segments, and hence suggest having little chance for strong earthquake recurring in the future.

引文

①此震级为中国地震台网测定的结果。四川地震台网的测定结果为MS4.7。
    ②四川省地震局江油地震现场工作组,1994年,一九九四年二月二十五日江油南MS4.7级地震考察报告(内部资料)。
    国家地震局地球物理研究所、复旦大学历史地理研究所(编),1990,中国历史地震图集(清时期),1～244,北京:中国地图出版社。
    国家地震局震害防御司(编),1995,中国历史强震目录,1～514,北京:地震出版社。
    吕江宁、沈正康、王敏,2003,中国大陆现今应变率场及其动力学成因研究,地震地质,25(4),543～554。
    唐荣昌、韩渭宾(主编),1993,四川活动断裂与地震,1～192,北京:地震出版社。
    王椿镛、韩渭宾、吴建平等,2003,松潘-甘孜造山带地壳速度结构,地震学报,25(3),229～241。
    王二七、孟庆任、陈智等,2001,龙门山断裂带印支期左旋走滑运动及其大地构造成因,地学前沿,8(2),375～384。
    闻学泽,2000,四川西部鲜水河-安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震破裂分段特征,地震地质,22(3),1～11。
    闻学泽,2001,活动断裂的可变破裂尺度地震行为与级联破裂模式的应用,地震学报,23(4),380～390。
    易桂喜、闻学泽、范军等,2004a,由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性,地震学报,26(3),294～303。
    易桂喜、闻学泽、徐锡伟,2004b,山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究,地震学报,26(4),387～395。
    易桂喜、范军、闻学泽,2005,由现今地震活动分析鲜水河中-南段活动习性与强震危险地段,地震,25(1),58～66。
    中国地震局震害防御司(编),1999,中国近代地震目录,1～637,北京:中国科学技术出版社。
    AkiK,1984,Asperities,barriers,characteristicearthquakesandstrongmotionprediction,JGeophysRes,89(B7),5867～5872.
    ScholzCH,1968,Thefrequencymagnituderelationtomicrofracturinginrockanditsrelationtoearthquakes,BullSeismSocAm,58,399～415.
    UrbancicTI,TrifuCI,LongJM,etal.,1992,Spacetimecorrelationofbvaluespatialwithstressrelease,PureAppl.Geophys,139,449～462.
    WiemerS,WyssM.,1997,Mappingthefrequencymagnitudedistributioninasperities:Animprovedtechniquetocalculaterecurrencetimes?JGeophysRes,102(B7),15115～15128.
    WyssM,SchorlemmerD,WiemerS,2000,Mappingasperitiesbyminimaoflocalrecurrencetime:SanJacintoElsinorefaultzones,JGeophysRes,105(B4),7829～7844.
    ZhangP,ShenZ,WangM,etal.,2004,ContinuousdeformationoftheTibetanPlateaufromglobalpositioningsystemdata,Geology,32(9):809～812.
    ZuigaF.R.,WyssM.,2001,MostandleastlikelylocationsoflargetogreatearthquakesalongthePacificcoastofMexicoestimatedfromlocalrecurrencetimesbasedonbvalues,BullSeismSocAm,91(6),1717～1728.