地震工况下坝坡的抗滑安全系数取值标准研究
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摘要
地震工况下的坝坡抗滑稳定性核算一直是大坝安全性评价的重要环节,采用科学合理的计算方法是评价坝坡安全性的基本保证。本文从概率极限分析的角度探讨了坝坡稳定性可靠度分析的概率意义,提出了将地震发生当做概率事件的坝坡可靠度计算方法。为验证将地震超越概率纳入坝坡稳定分析中的合理性,本文通过两个典型算例和小浪底坝坡典型剖面的抗滑稳定性分析研究了坝坡在地震工况下的单一安全系数与可靠指标的变化规律。研究结果表明在坝坡稳定分析中引入超越概率计算所得结果与工程实际相符,与以往的将地震发生当做确定性事件计算方法相比,该方法显著提高了坝坡的可靠指标值;比较可靠指标与单一安全系数的取值标准显示出在坝坡稳定分析中合理地引入地震概率分析方法能够保证坝坡在地震和正常工况下有相近的可靠指标值。
Checking the dam's stability under seismic conditions has always been an important job for dam's security;and using the reasonable calculation method is the basic guarantee for right result.The probability mean of reliability analysis for dam slope's stability is discussed based on the probabilistic limit analysis and the formulation what considered earthquake as a probability event for slope's reliability is deduced.To demonstrate the rationality of bringing exceeding probability into dam slope stability analysis,two typical examples and Xiaolangdi dam slope are taken to investigate the variation of single safety factor and reliability index under seismic condition.The research results show that the bringing exceeding probability into dam slope stability calculation can increase the value of reliability index to match the engineering practice compared to consider earthquake as deterministic events and can match the allowable factors of safety in specifications.
Checking the dam's stability under seismic conditions has always been an important job for dam's security;and using the reasonable calculation method is the basic guarantee for right result.The probability mean of reliability analysis for dam slope's stability is discussed based on the probabilistic limit analysis and the formulation what considered earthquake as a probability event for slope's reliability is deduced.To demonstrate the rationality of bringing exceeding probability into dam slope stability analysis,two typical examples and Xiaolangdi dam slope are taken to investigate the variation of single safety factor and reliability index under seismic condition.The research results show that the bringing exceeding probability into dam slope stability calculation can increase the value of reliability index to match the engineering practice compared to consider earthquake as deterministic events and can match the allowable factors of safety in specifications.
引文
[1]陈祖煜,陈立宏,王玉杰,等.滑坡和建筑物抗滑稳定分析中的可靠度分析和分项系数设计方法[C]//水利水电工程风险分析及可靠度设计技术进展.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2010,27-39.
[2]FREUDENTHAL A M.Safety of structures[J].Transactions of ASCE,1947,112:125-180.
[3]陈祖煜.土质边坡稳定分析—原理.方法.程序[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.
[4]Committee on reliability methods for risk mitigation in geotechnical engineering.Probabilistic methods in geotechnical engineering[M].Washington D.C.:National Research Council,National Academy Press,1995.
[5]DUNCAN J M.Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering[J].Jounral of Geotechniacal and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2000,126(4):307-316.
[6]DUZGUN H S B,YACEMEN M S,KORPUZ C A.A methodology for reliability–based design of rock slopes[J].Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering,2003,36(2):95-120.
[7]罗文强,王亮清,龚珏.正态分布下边坡稳定性二元指标体系研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(13):2288-2292.LUO Wen-qiang,WANG Liang-qing,GONG Jue.Study of slope statbility by dual index system based on normal distribution[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(13):2288-2292.
[8]常晓林,蒋春燕,周伟,等.岩质坝基稳定分析的等安全系数法及可靠度研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(8):1594-1602.CHANG Xiao-lin,JIANG Chun-yan,ZHOU Wei,et al.Equal safety factor method and its reliability analysis for rock foundation of dam[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(8):1594-1602.
[9]苏永华,赵明华,蒋德松,等.响应面方法在边坡稳定可靠度分析中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(7):1417-1424.SU Yong-hua,ZHAO Ming-hua,JIANG De-song,et al.Application of response surface method to reliability analysis of slope stability[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2006,25(7):1417-1424.
[10]李典庆,周创兵,陈益峰,等.边坡可靠度分析的随机响应面法及程序实现[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(8):1513-1523.LI Dian-qing,ZHOU Chuang-bing,CHEN Yi-feng,et al.Reliability of slope using stochastic response surface method and code implementation[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(8):1513-1523.
[11]中国水电顾问集闭西北勘测设计研究院.DL/T 5395-2007碾压式土石坝设计规范[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2007.
[12]中华人民共和国原能源部,中华人民共和国水利部.GB50199―94水利水电工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[S].北京:中国电力出版社,1994.
[13]马玉宏,谢礼立,赵桂峰.地震环境下不同重要性建筑的抗震设防水准[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(5):117-121.MA Yu-hong,XIE Li-li,ZHAO Gui-feng.Seismic design levels of building structures with different importance factors in consideration of earthquake environment[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2004,13(5):117-121.
[14]水电水利规划设计总院.关于印发《水电工程防震抗震研究设计及专题报告编制暂行规定》的通知(水电规计[2008]24号)[R].北京:水电水利规划设计总院,2008.
[15]陈立宏.土石坝固结和稳定的风险与可靠度分析[D].北京:清华大学,2003.
[2]FREUDENTHAL A M.Safety of structures[J].Transactions of ASCE,1947,112:125-180.
[3]陈祖煜.土质边坡稳定分析—原理.方法.程序[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003.
[4]Committee on reliability methods for risk mitigation in geotechnical engineering.Probabilistic methods in geotechnical engineering[M].Washington D.C.:National Research Council,National Academy Press,1995.
[5]DUNCAN J M.Factors of safety and reliability in geotechnical engineering[J].Jounral of Geotechniacal and Geoenvironmental Engineering,2000,126(4):307-316.
[6]DUZGUN H S B,YACEMEN M S,KORPUZ C A.A methodology for reliability–based design of rock slopes[J].Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering,2003,36(2):95-120.
[7]罗文强,王亮清,龚珏.正态分布下边坡稳定性二元指标体系研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(13):2288-2292.LUO Wen-qiang,WANG Liang-qing,GONG Jue.Study of slope statbility by dual index system based on normal distribution[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(13):2288-2292.
[8]常晓林,蒋春燕,周伟,等.岩质坝基稳定分析的等安全系数法及可靠度研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2007,26(8):1594-1602.CHANG Xiao-lin,JIANG Chun-yan,ZHOU Wei,et al.Equal safety factor method and its reliability analysis for rock foundation of dam[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2007,26(8):1594-1602.
[9]苏永华,赵明华,蒋德松,等.响应面方法在边坡稳定可靠度分析中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(7):1417-1424.SU Yong-hua,ZHAO Ming-hua,JIANG De-song,et al.Application of response surface method to reliability analysis of slope stability[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2006,25(7):1417-1424.
[10]李典庆,周创兵,陈益峰,等.边坡可靠度分析的随机响应面法及程序实现[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(8):1513-1523.LI Dian-qing,ZHOU Chuang-bing,CHEN Yi-feng,et al.Reliability of slope using stochastic response surface method and code implementation[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(8):1513-1523.
[11]中国水电顾问集闭西北勘测设计研究院.DL/T 5395-2007碾压式土石坝设计规范[S].北京:中国电力出版社,2007.
[12]中华人民共和国原能源部,中华人民共和国水利部.GB50199―94水利水电工程结构可靠度设计统一标准[S].北京:中国电力出版社,1994.
[13]马玉宏,谢礼立,赵桂峰.地震环境下不同重要性建筑的抗震设防水准[J].自然灾害学报,2004,13(5):117-121.MA Yu-hong,XIE Li-li,ZHAO Gui-feng.Seismic design levels of building structures with different importance factors in consideration of earthquake environment[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2004,13(5):117-121.
[14]水电水利规划设计总院.关于印发《水电工程防震抗震研究设计及专题报告编制暂行规定》的通知(水电规计[2008]24号)[R].北京:水电水利规划设计总院,2008.
[15]陈立宏.土石坝固结和稳定的风险与可靠度分析[D].北京:清华大学,2003.
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