理解前兆异常变化机理和地震短临前兆
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摘要
本文概要介绍了国内外近几年在地壳形变地球自转日长变化十年尺度相关性、静寂地震、前驱波三方面的重要研究发现,并分析了这三项研究发现在地震前兆异常机理认识中的作用。初步分析表明深部核幔耦合作用引起的地壳形变、地球物理场十年尺度波动,是数年至十年尺度地震场兆波动性变化的重要调制因素之一;源于断层脆韧转换带(过渡层)的静寂地震慢地震缓慢破裂过程,是数天至数月尺度地震短期异常变化产生的重要原因;源于脆韧转换层上部或弹脆性层薄弱部分慢地震过程所辐射出来的低频前驱波(慢地震波),是目前已发现的可重复出现的短临前兆信号,具有数小时至7天左右的地震短临预报指标意义。
Three new scientific research finding and progress on decadal-scale correlation between crustal deformation and length of day, silent earthquake and precursory wave have been briefly introduced in this paper, and their implications to prem onitory anomaly and earthquake prediction are also analyzed. Tentative researche s demonstrate that: core-mantle coupling induced fluctuations in crustal deform ation, geophysical observations, are important modulations to back-ground anoma ly variations on years to decade-time scales; Slow rupture process within the t ransition zone of fault is an important source for short-term premonitory anoma lies on days to months time scales; The low-frequency precursory waves (slow ea rthquake waves) originating from transition zone or weaken brittle part of fault are repeatable and reliable imminent precursors, which generally come out sever al hours to seven days before strong earthquakes.
Three new scientific research finding and progress on decadal-scale correlation between crustal deformation and length of day, silent earthquake and precursory wave have been briefly introduced in this paper, and their implications to prem onitory anomaly and earthquake prediction are also analyzed. Tentative researche s demonstrate that: core-mantle coupling induced fluctuations in crustal deform ation, geophysical observations, are important modulations to back-ground anoma ly variations on years to decade-time scales; Slow rupture process within the t ransition zone of fault is an important source for short-term premonitory anoma lies on days to months time scales; The low-frequency precursory waves (slow ea rthquake waves) originating from transition zone or weaken brittle part of fault are repeatable and reliable imminent precursors, which generally come out sever al hours to seven days before strong earthquakes.
引文
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[36]唐林波,李世愚,等.地震前长周期事件的研究历史与现状.国际地震动态,2002(4):15
[37]许昭永,杨润海,等.慢地震前兆的机制研究.地震,2003,23(2):1220
[2]WangQingliang,ChenYuntai,CuiDuxin,etal.DecadalCorrelationBetweenCrustalDeformationandVariationinLengthofDayoftheEarth.EarthPlanetsSpace,2000,52:989992
[3]WangQL,ChenYT,etal.DecadescaleCorrelationBetweenCrustalDeformationandLengthofDay:ImplicationtoEarthquakeandHazardEstimation.In:EarthquakeHazard,Risk,andStrongGroundMotion.editedbyY.T.Chenetal.SeismologicalPress,2004:151164
[4]王庆良.地壳形变—地球物理场—日长变化十年尺度相关性.中国地震局地球物理研究所博士论文,2003
[5]GladwinMT,RLGwyther.MeasurementsoftheStrainFieldAssociatedWithEpisodicCreepEventsontheSanAndreasFaultatSanJanBautista.California.J.geophys.Res,1994,99:45594565
[6]LindeAT,MTGladwin.ASlowEarthquakeSequenceontheSanAndreasFault.Nature,1996,383:6568
[7]DragertH,KLWang,TSJames.ASilentEventontheDeepCascadiaSubductionInterface.Science,2001
[8]RogersGandHDragert,EpisodicTremorandSlipontheCascadiaSubductionZone:TheChatterofSilentSlip.Science,2003,300
[9]KostoglodovAandSKSingh.AlargeSilentEarthquakeintheGuerreroSeismicGap.Mexico.Geophys.Res.Lett,2003,30(15),1807,doi:10.102912003GL017219
[10]BerozaGCandTHJordan.SearchingforSlowandSilentEarthquakeUsingFreeOscillation.J.Geophys.Res,1990,95:24852510
[11]KizawaT.大地震前后重力仪的记录.国外地震,1972(1):3941
[12]西昌地震办公室.地震前的应力脉冲波.地震战线,1977(5):2527
[13]朱传镇,房明山,安镇文.脉动与地震关系初步探讨.地球物理学报,1977,20(1):2032
[14]牛志仁,朱传镇.脉动与地震关系初步探讨(二).地球物理学报,1978,21(4):325331
[15]吴兵,许厚泽.唐山地震前重力前兆特征.唐山地震考察与研究.北京:地震出版社,1981:198206
[16]韩元杰.预滑与地震长周期波动研究.西北地震学报,1984,6(1):1015
[17]冯德益,潘琴龙,等.长周期形变波及其所反应的短期和临震地震前兆.地震学报,1984,6(1):4156
[18]陈德福,罗荣祥,刘国培.倾斜异常图像分类及其特征浅析.地震学报,1986,8(2):211225
[19]姚同福,付印发.1976年松潘7.2级地震前几种异常波形的记录特征及其在大震短临预报中的应用.西北地震学报,1994,16(2):5761
[20]张晓东,马文静.1994年2月16日共和5.8级地震短临预报实况.地震,1995(1):2028
[21]赵根模,杨港生,陈化然.静寂的前震与地震预测.地震,2001,21(1):6977
[22]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰.地震预报引论.北京:科学出版社,2001
[23]车用太,金鱼子,等.山西朔州井水位的“前驱波”记录及其讨论.地震学报,2002,24(2):210216
[24]杨又陵,赵根模,等.2001年11月14日昆仑山口西M8.1级地震前的缓慢地震事件.国际地震动态,2003(9):14
[25]KanamoriJandJJCipar.FocalProcessoftheGreatChileanEarthquakeMay22,1960.Phys.Earth.Planet.Inter,1974,9:128136
[26]KanamoriHandEHaukxon.ASlowEarthquakeintheSantaMariaBasin,California.Bull.Seis.Soc.Am,1992,82:20872096
[27]DziewonskiAMandFGilbert.TemporalVariationoftheSeismicMomentTensorandEvidenceofPrecursiveCompressionforTwoDeepEarthquakes.Nature,1974,247:185188
[28]IhmlePFandTHJordan.TeleseismicSearchforSlowPrecursorstoLargeEarthquake.Science,1994,266:15471551
[29]IhmlePF,PHarabaglia,THJordan.TeleseismicDetectionofSlowPrecursorsoftheGreat1989MacquarieRidgeEarthquake.Science,1994,261:177183
[30]KerrR.QuakePredictionbySeismicOxymora?Science,1990,248:1490
[31]KerrR.Seismology:ASlowStartforEarthquakes.Science,1998,279:985
[32]McGuireJJandPFIhmle.TimedomainObservationsofaSlowPrecursortothe1994RomantheTransformEarthquake.Science,1996,273:8285
[33]MonasterskyR.BeforetheQuake:DetectingtheSlowGroan.ScienceNews,1994,146(23):374
[34]MonasterskyR.TheCreepBeforetheQuake.ScienceNews,1996,348:149
[35]吴忠良.地震学中的“暗物质”:“静地震”与地震预测的未来.国际地震动态,2001(9):14
[36]唐林波,李世愚,等.地震前长周期事件的研究历史与现状.国际地震动态,2002(4):15
[37]许昭永,杨润海,等.慢地震前兆的机制研究.地震,2003,23(2):1220
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