汶川地震损失快速评估
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摘要
本文根据历史震害统计资料并结合前人研究,给出了四川、陕西、甘肃三省不同结构类型住宅的震害矩阵;结合汶川地震烈度图和三省的社会经济统计数据,包括人口、人均住房面积、不同结构住宅比例等,进行震后损失快速评估,得出四川、陕西、甘肃三省县级地理单元的住宅破坏情况、无家可归人数、住宅经济损失等评估数据,为抗震救灾提供决策依据。评估结果显示,如果按总体损失指标(经济损失或无家可归人数),江油、三台、安县、都江堰市、绵竹市、中江县是损失最严重的六个县;如果按照人均损失指标(人均经济损失或每万人无家可归人数),北川、安县、汶川、平武、绵竹、青川等是受灾最严重的六个县。通过比较县级地理单元的损失情况,作者认为在这次地震中,人均损失指标比总体损失指标更能代表一个地区受灾的严重程度,用总体损失指标来评估一个地区的因灾损失程度,用人均损失指标来评价一个地区的受灾程度。本文最后给出了考虑地震烈度空间分布异性的震后损失快速评估技术流程。
The damage matrixes of the residential building with different structure systems in Sichuan,Shanxi and Gansu Provinces were derived based on the historical seismic damage statistical data and past studies.Using the seismic intensity map developed by China Earthquake Administration and the social economy statistical data of the three provinces,such as the population,per-capita living space,the proportion of residential building with different structure systems,a fast loss assessment after the earthquake was implemented.Residential building damage,homeless population and residential economic loss were provided as important indicators for governments during disaster relief.According to the total loss index,the total economic loss or homeless population,Jiangyou,Santai,Anxian,Dujiangyan,Mianzhu and Zhongjiang are six of the considerable counties in loss.According to the per-capita loss index,the per-capita economic loss or homeless population per ten thousand people,Beichuan,Anxian,Wenchuan,Pingwu,Mianzhu,and Qingchuan are six of the most disastrous counties in catastrophe.The per-capita loss index is able to express the disaster severity of a district better.It is also argued that using total loss index is appropriate for evaluating loss grade,whilst per-capita loss index is suitable for assessing disaster severity grade.In addition,a post-earthquake fast loss assessment workflow based on damage matrix considering spatial heterogeneity of intensity was given out.
The damage matrixes of the residential building with different structure systems in Sichuan,Shanxi and Gansu Provinces were derived based on the historical seismic damage statistical data and past studies.Using the seismic intensity map developed by China Earthquake Administration and the social economy statistical data of the three provinces,such as the population,per-capita living space,the proportion of residential building with different structure systems,a fast loss assessment after the earthquake was implemented.Residential building damage,homeless population and residential economic loss were provided as important indicators for governments during disaster relief.According to the total loss index,the total economic loss or homeless population,Jiangyou,Santai,Anxian,Dujiangyan,Mianzhu and Zhongjiang are six of the considerable counties in loss.According to the per-capita loss index,the per-capita economic loss or homeless population per ten thousand people,Beichuan,Anxian,Wenchuan,Pingwu,Mianzhu,and Qingchuan are six of the most disastrous counties in catastrophe.The per-capita loss index is able to express the disaster severity of a district better.It is also argued that using total loss index is appropriate for evaluating loss grade,whilst per-capita loss index is suitable for assessing disaster severity grade.In addition,a post-earthquake fast loss assessment workflow based on damage matrix considering spatial heterogeneity of intensity was given out.
引文
[1]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990~1995)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
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[5]蒋良文,王士天,王运生,等.川西北断块东部区域活动构造体系及其对地震活动的控制作用[J].成都理工大学学报:自然科学版,2005,32(4):340-344.
[6]俞言祥,高孟潭.台湾集集地震近场地震动的上盘效应[J].地震学报,2001,23(6):615-621.
[7]李树桢,尹之潜.地震损失评估与数据库系统[J].中国地震,1993,9(3):264-275.
[8]王瑛,史培军,王静爱,云南省农村乡镇地震灾害房屋损失评估[J].地震学报,2005,27(5),551-560.
[9]尹之潜,赵直,杨淑文.建筑物易损性和地震损失与地震加速度谱值的关系(上)[J].地震工程与工程振动,2003,23(4),195-200.
[10]尹之潜,杨淑文.地震损失分析与设防标准[J].2004,北京:地震出版社.
[11]胡少卿,孙柏涛,等.经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2007,27(6),46-50.
[12]Charles A Kircher,Robert V Whitman,William THolmes.HAZUS Earthquake loss estimation methods[J].Natural Hazards Review,ASCE,ISSN,2006,7(2):45-59.
[13]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA),HAZUS-MHMR1.Advanced engineering building module technical and user’s manual[M].Washington,D.C.,2003.
[14]Cao Tianqing,Petersen MD.Uncertainty of earthquake losses due to model uncertainty of Input ground motions in the Los Angeles Area[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2006,96(2):365-376.
[2]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996~2000)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[3]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.地震现场工作第4部分:灾害直接损失评估(GB/T18208.4-2005)[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2005.
[4]何玉林,黎大虎,范开红,等.四川省房屋易损性研究[J].中国地震,2002,18(1):52-58.
[5]蒋良文,王士天,王运生,等.川西北断块东部区域活动构造体系及其对地震活动的控制作用[J].成都理工大学学报:自然科学版,2005,32(4):340-344.
[6]俞言祥,高孟潭.台湾集集地震近场地震动的上盘效应[J].地震学报,2001,23(6):615-621.
[7]李树桢,尹之潜.地震损失评估与数据库系统[J].中国地震,1993,9(3):264-275.
[8]王瑛,史培军,王静爱,云南省农村乡镇地震灾害房屋损失评估[J].地震学报,2005,27(5),551-560.
[9]尹之潜,赵直,杨淑文.建筑物易损性和地震损失与地震加速度谱值的关系(上)[J].地震工程与工程振动,2003,23(4),195-200.
[10]尹之潜,杨淑文.地震损失分析与设防标准[J].2004,北京:地震出版社.
[11]胡少卿,孙柏涛,等.经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2007,27(6),46-50.
[12]Charles A Kircher,Robert V Whitman,William THolmes.HAZUS Earthquake loss estimation methods[J].Natural Hazards Review,ASCE,ISSN,2006,7(2):45-59.
[13]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA),HAZUS-MHMR1.Advanced engineering building module technical and user’s manual[M].Washington,D.C.,2003.
[14]Cao Tianqing,Petersen MD.Uncertainty of earthquake losses due to model uncertainty of Input ground motions in the Los Angeles Area[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2006,96(2):365-376.
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