基于地震区划的电力系统元件损坏概率分析
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摘要
电力系统元件的实际地震损坏概率是分析电气设备的抗震性能和进行网络抗震风险分析的基础。在地震区划的基础上,结合电气设备易损性曲线,引入结构震害指数的概念,建立了电力系统中变电站主要元件及架空线路在地震情况下的损坏概率分析模型。最后,采用该方法对成都电网的变电站元件及架空线路损坏概率进行计算,并与实际结果进行对比,验证了该方法的有效性。
actual components damage probability of power system in the earthquake is the foundation for seismic situation of electrical equipment and network seismic risk analysis.This article analyzes the characteristics of earthquake disasters,and points out that using seismic zoning is reasonable method for assessing area's intensity.Main components of substation and overhead lines in earthquake cases of failure probability analysis model based on seismic zoning are established combining with electrical equipment fragility curve.Finally,failure probability of substation components and overhead lines in Chengdu power grid is calculated with this method proposed.The results are still compared with the actual data which show that the method is effective.
actual components damage probability of power system in the earthquake is the foundation for seismic situation of electrical equipment and network seismic risk analysis.This article analyzes the characteristics of earthquake disasters,and points out that using seismic zoning is reasonable method for assessing area's intensity.Main components of substation and overhead lines in earthquake cases of failure probability analysis model based on seismic zoning are established combining with electrical equipment fragility curve.Finally,failure probability of substation components and overhead lines in Chengdu power grid is calculated with this method proposed.The results are still compared with the actual data which show that the method is effective.
引文
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[2]贺海磊,郭剑波,谢强.电气设备的地震灾害易损性分析[J].电网技术,2011,35(4):25-28.He Hailei,Guo Jianbo,Xie Qiang.Vulnerability analysis of power equipments caused by earthquake disaster[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(4):25-28(in Chinese).
[3]马玉宏,赵桂峰.地震灾害风险分析及管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:64-119.
[4]王志涛,苏经宇,马东辉,等.城市地震灾害风险区划的研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(9):5-10.Wang Zhitao,Su Jingyu,Ma Donghui,et al.Research on risk zoning of urban seismic disaster[J].China Safety Science Journal,2008,18(9):5-10(in Chinese).
[5]Ang A H S,Pires J,Villaverde R,et al.Seismic probabilistic reliability assessment of electric power transmission systems[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1996,51(1):7-22.
[6]Vanzi I.Seismic reliability of electric power networks:methodology and application[J].Structural Safety,1996,18(4):311-327.
[7]曹枚根,周福霖,徐忠根,等.大跨越输电塔线体系减震控制分析研究[J].电网技术,2007,31(14):45-51.Cao Meigen,Zhou Fulin,Xu Zhonggen,et al.Research on seismic control of large crossing transmission towers for transmission lines[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(14):45-51(in Chinese).
[8]文波,牛荻涛,赵鹏.变电站抗震性能研究综述[J].工程抗震与加固改造,2007,29(6):73-77.Wen Bo,Niu Ditao,Zhao Peng.Review of substation seism ic performance research[J].Earthquake Resistant Engineering and Retrofitting,2007,29(6):73-77(in Chinese).
[9]程永峰,朱全军,卢智成.变电站电力设施抗震措施研究现状与发展趋势[J].电网技术,2008,32(22):84-89.Cheng Yongfeng,Zhu Quanjun,Lu Zhicheng.Progress and development trend on seismic messures of electric power equipments in transformer substation[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(22):84-89(in Chinese).
[10]中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部和中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局.GBJ 50011—2010建筑抗震设计规范[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2010.
[11]郭小东,马东辉,苏经宇,等.城市抗震防灾规划中建筑物易损性评价方法的研究[J].世界地震工程,2005,21(2):129-135.Guo Xiaodong,Ma Donghui,Su Jingyu,et al.A case study on vulnerability assessment of buildings in urban earthquake disaster prevention planning[J].World Earthquake Engineering,2005,21(2):129-135(in Chinese).
[12]四川省电力公司.四川电力系统2010年度运行方式汇编[R].成都:四川省电力公司,2010.
[13]国家标准化管理委员会.GB 18306—2001中国地震动参数区划图[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2008.
[14]国家标准化管理委员会.GB 18306—2001《中国地震动参数区划图》国家标准第1号修改单[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2008.
[15]贺海磊.大电力系统概率安全性评估算法研究和软件开发[D].北京:中国电力科学研究院,2007.
[16]于永清,李光范,李鹏,等.四川电网汶川地震电力设施受灾调研分析[J].电网技术,2008,32(11):T1-T6.Yu Yongqing,Li Guangfan,Li Peng,et al.Investigation and analysis of electric equipment damage in Sichuan power grid caused by Wenchuan earthquake[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(11):T1-T6(in Chinese).
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