基于GIS技术多源信息集成的三峡水库库首区诱发地震危险性动态评价
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摘要
将数值模拟成果与监测数据集成,对三峡水库库首区诱发地震危险性进行了动态评价。在GIS(geographic information system)平台上将数值模拟结果用专业地震模型进行评价,其成果作为评价背景数据库。用实时的地震监测数据、地下水位监测数据、地壳形变监测数据对背景数据库进行更新。选用FLAC3D为数值模拟工具,MAPGIS为GIS基础平台,VC++为开发工具,研发了水库诱发地震危险性动态评价系统。系统提供在一定蓄水位条件下、一定评价范围、一定深度内的水库诱发地震灾害危险性区划。研究结果表明,在GIS平台上,利用信息融合技术,可以将水库诱发地震的数值模拟评估、监测数据评估进行集成,实现水库诱发地震危险性动态评价。
The numerical simulation result and monitoring data have been integrated so as to study dynamic assessment of induced earthquake in the head area of Three Gorges Reservoir.The technical route was that the results of numerical simulation have been evaluated by professional earthquake model.The findings of the evaluation have been regarded as its background database which has been updated with real-time earthquake monitoring data,groundwater level monitoring data and crustal deformation monitoring data. The risk assessment system of induced earthquake has been studied by simulation tools of FLAC 3D,MAPGIS as its basic platform and VC++as the developing tool.The research results show that the evaluation indices of numerical simulation model and monitoring data can be integrated by information fusion technique on GIS platform;so that a dynamic assessment of reservoir induced earthquake can be achieved.
The numerical simulation result and monitoring data have been integrated so as to study dynamic assessment of induced earthquake in the head area of Three Gorges Reservoir.The technical route was that the results of numerical simulation have been evaluated by professional earthquake model.The findings of the evaluation have been regarded as its background database which has been updated with real-time earthquake monitoring data,groundwater level monitoring data and crustal deformation monitoring data. The risk assessment system of induced earthquake has been studied by simulation tools of FLAC 3D,MAPGIS as its basic platform and VC++as the developing tool.The research results show that the evaluation indices of numerical simulation model and monitoring data can be integrated by information fusion technique on GIS platform;so that a dynamic assessment of reservoir induced earthquake can be achieved.
引文
[1]张秋文,王乘,李峰.长江三峡工程库首及周缘地区水库诱发地震危险性定量预测与评估研究[J].水电能源科学,2005,23(4):21-26.ZHANG Qiu-wen,WANG Cheng,LI Feng.Quantitative prediction and assessment of induced seismicity risk in Yangtze River Three Gorges Reservoir area and its neighboring area[J].Water Resources and Power,2005,23(4):21-26.
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[8]王儒述.三峡水库诱发地震的监测及预报[J].水电站设计,2006,22(3):67-72.WANG Ru-shu.Three Gorges Reservoir induced earthquake monitoring and prediction[J].Design of Hydroelectric Power Station,2006,22(3):67-72.
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[10]杜瑞林,乔学军,杨少敏.长江三峡GPS处理结果和应变背景场[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2004,29(9):768-772.DU Rui-lin,QIAO Xue-jun,YANG Shao-min.Results of the crustal deformation by GPS survey and horizontal strain rate fields in the Three Gorge area[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2004,29(9):768-772.
[11]车用太,鱼金子,刘五洲,等.三峡井网地下水动态观测的技术系统[J].地震地质,2002,24(3):435-444.CHE Yong-tai,YU Jin-zi,LIU Wu-zhou,et al.Technical system of groundwater observation in the Three Gorge well network[J].Seismology and Geology,2002,24(3):435-444.
[12]胡圣武,张卷美,王新洲.空间数据融合的基本框架[J].测绘科学,2007,32(3):22,175-177,199.HU Sheng-wu,ZHANG Juan-mei,WANG Xin-zhou.Basic framework of spatial data fusion[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2007,32(3):22,175-177,199.
[13]SIMONE G,ARINA A,MORABITO F C,et al.Image fusion techniques for remote sensing applications[J].Information Fusion,2002,13(3):3-15.
[14]侯卫生,吴信才,刘修国.基于GIS的城市地面沉降信息管理与预测系统研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(6):1685-1690.HOU Wei-sheng,WU Xin-cai,LIU Xiu-guo.Study of urban land subsidence information management and prediction system based on GIS[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(6):1685-1690.
[15]DOBSON J E.A conceptual framework for integrating RS[J].GIS and Geography,1993,59(10):1491-1496.
[16]杜培军,郭志达,方涛,等.GIS在开采沉陷领域应用及与专业模型的结合[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2003,28(4):463-467.DU Pei-jun,GUO Zhi-da,FANG Tao,et al.Application of GIS to mining subsidence and combination of GIS with professional model[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2003,28(4):463-467.
[17]袁曲,董建辉.三峡水库地震孕震机理与未来地震趋势初探[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2005,26(增刊):37-47.YUAN Qu,DONG Jian-hui.Preliminary study on the mechanism of the TGP reservoir-induced earthquakes and future seismic tendencies[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2005,26(Supp.):37-47.
[18]连志龙,张劲,吴恒安,等.水力压裂扩展的流固耦合数值模拟研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(11):3021-3026.LIAN Zhi-long,ZHANG Jing,WU Heng-an,et al.A simulation study of hydraulic fracturing propagation with a solid-fluid coupling model[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(11):3021-3026.
[2]夏金梧,李长安,王旭.神经网络在三峡水库诱发地震预测中的应用[J].人民长江,2007,38(2):8-11.XIA Jin-wu,LI Chang-an,WANG Xu.Application of neural network theory to prediction of earthquake induced by TGP reservoir[J].Yangtze River,2007,38(2):8-11.
[3]杨清源,陈献程,胡毓良,等.应用灰色聚类法预测长江三峡工程水库诱发地震的最大震级[J].华南地震,1996,16(2):75-79.YANG Qing-yuan,CHEN Xian-cheng,HU Yu-liang,et al.Forecast the maximum magnitude of induced reservoir earthquake on the Three Gorges Project of Yangtze River using grey cluster method[J].South China Journal of Seismology,1996,16(2):75-79.
[4]陈蜀俊,姚运生,曾佐勋,等.三峡库首区蓄水前后构造应力场三维数值模拟研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(增刊2):5611-5618.CHEN Shu-jun,YAO Yun-sheng,ZENG Zuo-xun,et al.Study on numerical simulation of tectonic stress field before and after reservoir impounding in the head area of Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(Supp.2):5611-5618.
[5]齐文浩,薄景山,李贞德.江口水库诱发地震的有限元分析[J].地震工程与工程振动,2006,26(6):7-10.QI Wen-hao,BO Jing-shan,LI Zhen-de.Finite element analysis of Jiangkou reservoir-induced earthquake[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2006,26(6):7-10.
[6]杜瑞林,游新兆,乔学军.长江三峡工程诱发地震监测系统中的GPS监测网及其观测结果[J].地壳形变与地震,2001,21(1):46-52.DU Rui-lin,YOU Xin-zhao,QIAO Xue-jun.GPS monitoring network of reservoir earthquake monitoring system in the Three Gorges and its observations[J].Crustal Deformation and Earthquake,2001,21(1):46-52.
[7]姚运生.“长江三峡水库诱发地震监测研究”项目成果介绍[J].国际地震动态,2006,333(9):67-69.YAO Yun-sheng.Introduction of the program“Monitoring and studies for reservoir-induced earthquakes in the Three Gorge Reservoir”[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2006,333(9):67-69.
[8]王儒述.三峡水库诱发地震的监测及预报[J].水电站设计,2006,22(3):67-72.WANG Ru-shu.Three Gorges Reservoir induced earthquake monitoring and prediction[J].Design of Hydroelectric Power Station,2006,22(3):67-72.
[9]刘文清,张群.三峡工程数字遥测地震台网技术系统[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2002,23(1):32-38.LIU Wen-qing,ZHANG Qun.The technological system of Yangtze Three Gorge telementered digital seismic network[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Obser-vation and Research,2002,23(1):32-38.
[10]杜瑞林,乔学军,杨少敏.长江三峡GPS处理结果和应变背景场[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2004,29(9):768-772.DU Rui-lin,QIAO Xue-jun,YANG Shao-min.Results of the crustal deformation by GPS survey and horizontal strain rate fields in the Three Gorge area[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2004,29(9):768-772.
[11]车用太,鱼金子,刘五洲,等.三峡井网地下水动态观测的技术系统[J].地震地质,2002,24(3):435-444.CHE Yong-tai,YU Jin-zi,LIU Wu-zhou,et al.Technical system of groundwater observation in the Three Gorge well network[J].Seismology and Geology,2002,24(3):435-444.
[12]胡圣武,张卷美,王新洲.空间数据融合的基本框架[J].测绘科学,2007,32(3):22,175-177,199.HU Sheng-wu,ZHANG Juan-mei,WANG Xin-zhou.Basic framework of spatial data fusion[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2007,32(3):22,175-177,199.
[13]SIMONE G,ARINA A,MORABITO F C,et al.Image fusion techniques for remote sensing applications[J].Information Fusion,2002,13(3):3-15.
[14]侯卫生,吴信才,刘修国.基于GIS的城市地面沉降信息管理与预测系统研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(6):1685-1690.HOU Wei-sheng,WU Xin-cai,LIU Xiu-guo.Study of urban land subsidence information management and prediction system based on GIS[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(6):1685-1690.
[15]DOBSON J E.A conceptual framework for integrating RS[J].GIS and Geography,1993,59(10):1491-1496.
[16]杜培军,郭志达,方涛,等.GIS在开采沉陷领域应用及与专业模型的结合[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2003,28(4):463-467.DU Pei-jun,GUO Zhi-da,FANG Tao,et al.Application of GIS to mining subsidence and combination of GIS with professional model[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2003,28(4):463-467.
[17]袁曲,董建辉.三峡水库地震孕震机理与未来地震趋势初探[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2005,26(增刊):37-47.YUAN Qu,DONG Jian-hui.Preliminary study on the mechanism of the TGP reservoir-induced earthquakes and future seismic tendencies[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2005,26(Supp.):37-47.
[18]连志龙,张劲,吴恒安,等.水力压裂扩展的流固耦合数值模拟研究[J].岩土力学,2008,29(11):3021-3026.LIAN Zhi-long,ZHANG Jing,WU Heng-an,et al.A simulation study of hydraulic fracturing propagation with a solid-fluid coupling model[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2008,29(11):3021-3026.
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