地震应急避难场所建设的需求与人因分析
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摘要
借鉴日本在地震应急避难场所建设方面的经验和成果,结合上海市的具体情况,建立了上海市地震应急避难场所的需求分析模型,并利用实际数据进行计算。在分析过程中综合考虑了地质和地理、地表速度、断水率等工程技术因素,同时还考虑了人群忍受断水能力、人群避难选择等人因条件。通过对比不同因素对于总体需求的影响程度,分析了地震应急避难场所建设中人因的重要性。研究结果表明,由于综合考虑人因作用,计算结果与单纯建筑学的计算结果存在较大差别。在避难的高峰时刻建筑物损害造成的避难需求低于总体需求的60%。该模型的结果揭示了避难人群数量随时间而变化的规律。
Based on the experience in Japan and practical situations in China,the necessity of building emergency shelters for earthquake disasters in Shanghai is studied in this paper.A model is developed for analyzing the dynamic behavior when an earthquake happens.By this model,engineering and technological features,such as geologic and geographic factors,the speed on the earth's surface,the possibility of water supply cut-off,are considered.Also,sociological and psychological features,such as patience to the water supply cut-off and human choices on emergency shelters,are considered.With the model and in light of human factors,the effect of different features on the need for emergency shelters is analyzed.It shows that there is significant difference between the results obtained by the proposed model and that from the model based on the constructional features.The needs caused by constructional features may be 60% less than the maximal one.In addition,it also shows the changing tendency for emergency shelter needs by time.
Based on the experience in Japan and practical situations in China,the necessity of building emergency shelters for earthquake disasters in Shanghai is studied in this paper.A model is developed for analyzing the dynamic behavior when an earthquake happens.By this model,engineering and technological features,such as geologic and geographic factors,the speed on the earth's surface,the possibility of water supply cut-off,are considered.Also,sociological and psychological features,such as patience to the water supply cut-off and human choices on emergency shelters,are considered.With the model and in light of human factors,the effect of different features on the need for emergency shelters is analyzed.It shows that there is significant difference between the results obtained by the proposed model and that from the model based on the constructional features.The needs caused by constructional features may be 60% less than the maximal one.In addition,it also shows the changing tendency for emergency shelter needs by time.
引文
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[2]李雪林.上海将建20个大型避难所,市民步行30min可避难[N].文汇报,2011-5-16.
[3]尹之潜,李树桢,赵直,等.地震灾害预测与地震灾害等级[J].中国地震,1991,7(1):9-19.Yi Zhi-qian,Li Shu-zhen,Zhao Zhi,et al.A method forprediction and classification of earthquake disasters[J].China Earthquake,1991,7(1):9-19.
[4]翟永梅,李文艺,沈晓峰.上海市居住房屋抗震防灾能力现状调查及抗震管理工作目标的分析[J].工程抗震,2004,27(1):41-45.Zhai Yong-mei,Li Wen-yi,Shen Xiao-feng.An investigationon the capability of earthquake resistance and disaster preven-tion of residential buildings in Shanghai and the purpose anal-ysis on the earthquake resistance administration[J].Earth-quake Resistance Engineering,2004,27(1):41-45.
[5]周天颖,简莆任.紧急避难场所区位决策支持系统建立之研究[J].水土保持研究,2001,8(1):17-24.Zhou Ting-ying,Jian Fu-ren.Study on establishing the sup-porting system for location of the urgent refuge[J].Re-search of Soil and Water Conservation,2001,8(1):17-24.
[6]Japanese Central Disaster Prevention Council.Report by theexpert panel on evacuation measures in the event of a TokyoMetropolitan epicentral earthquake[R].Tokyo:JapaneseCentral Disaster Prevention Council,2008.
[7]Yoshiteru Murosaki,Hiroshi Ryugo.Studies on the first re-active actions of the citizen in the great Hanshin-Awaji earth-quake[C].Proceedings of the yearly conference of the Insti-tute of Social Safety Science.Tokyo:Institute of Social Safe-ty Science,1996.
[8]Tokyo Metropolitan Government.Damage estimates of anearthquake with an epicenter in the Tokyo Metropolitan area[R].Tokyo:Tokyo Metropolitan Government,2006.
[9]Gilbert L Molas,Fumio Yamazaki.Attenuation of earth-quake ground motion in Japan including deep focus events[J].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1995,85(5):1343-1358.
[10]Cabinet Office of Government of Japan.Earthquake coun-termeasure for Tokai earthquake[R].Tokyo:Cabinet Of-fice of Government of Japan,2003.
[11]Kawakami Eiji.Relationship between configuration andconnectivity of highway systems during earthquakes[C].Proceedings of the 1st symposium on earthquakes with anepicenter in the city,Tokyo:The general team on the cityearthquakes of the Ministry of Education,Science and Cul-ture of Japan,1996.
[12]刘昌森,景天永,孙庆烜,等.苏.浙.皖.沪地震目录<公元225—2000年>[M].北京:地震出版社,2002.
[13]章振铨,刘昌森,王锋.上海地区断裂活动性与地震关系初析[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):143-151.Zhang Zhen-quan,Liu Chang-sen,Wang Feng.Prelimina-ry study on relation of fault activity and seismicity in theShanghai region[J].Earthquake Research in China,2004,20(2):143-151.
[14]朱履熹,顾志文.上海及邻区地震地质背景和地震基本烈度探讨[J].上海师范大学学报,1994,35(2):76-84.Zhu Li-xi,Gu Zhi-wen.Studies on the Geological back-ground and basic earthquake intensity in Shanghai and near-by regions[J].Journal of East China Normal University,1994,35(2):76-84.
[15]郑小明,姚黎光,宋仁元.上海供水管网概况,问题及对策[J].上海水务,2007,23(1):11-15.Zheng Xiao-ming,Yao Li-guang,Song Ren-yuan.Shanghaiwater supply system:Introductions,questions and sugges-tions[J].Shanghai Water Service,2007,23(1):11-15.
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