川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川M_W 7.9级地震孕震过程分析
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摘要
根据作者提出的孕震时空区域划分原则,确定了川滇地区地震区(带)划分的合理方案.运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,给出了各地震区(带)未来强震的四要素预测结果.结果表明,除西昌、丽江与鲜水河地震区在较长一段时间内无破坏性地震发生外,其他地震区都将有破坏性地震发生.本文还分析了汶川大地震的孕震过程.结果表明:导致2008年5月12日汶川M_w7.9级地震的最直接原因,是1976年发生在松潘—平武的M_s7.2级双震震群事件.
According to the division principle of seismogenic time and space scale presented by us, a rational division scheme of seismic zones or belts in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions, China, is determined. Furthermore, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for each seismic zone or belt, are obtained using the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system. It is shown that destructive earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones mentioned below other than Xichang, Lijiang and Xianshuihe seismic zones. Furthermore, the seismogenic process associated with the Wenchuan earthquake is analyzed. It is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Wenchuan earthquake occurred on 12 May, 2008 is attributed to the double earthquake swarm events with a magnitude of M_S 7. 2 occurred in Songpan-Pingwu in 1976.
According to the division principle of seismogenic time and space scale presented by us, a rational division scheme of seismic zones or belts in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions, China, is determined. Furthermore, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for each seismic zone or belt, are obtained using the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system. It is shown that destructive earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones mentioned below other than Xichang, Lijiang and Xianshuihe seismic zones. Furthermore, the seismogenic process associated with the Wenchuan earthquake is analyzed. It is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Wenchuan earthquake occurred on 12 May, 2008 is attributed to the double earthquake swarm events with a magnitude of M_S 7. 2 occurred in Songpan-Pingwu in 1976.
引文
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[4] 秦四清,王媛媛,马平.崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律.岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5) :873～880 Qin S Q,Wang Y Y,Ma P.Exponential laws of critical displacement evolution for landslides and avalanches.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering(in Chinese),2010,29(5) :837～880
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[12] 华卫,陈章立,郑斯华.2008年汶川8． 0级地震序列震源参数分段特征的研究.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :365～371 Hua W,Chen Z L,Zheng S H.A study on segmentation characteristics of aftershock source parameters of Wenchuan M8． 0 earthquake in 2008． Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :365～371
[13] 陈祖安,林邦慧,白武明等.2008年汶川8． 0级地震孕震机理研究.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :408～417 Chen Z A,Lin B H,Bai W M,et al.The mechanism of generation of May 12,2008 M_S 8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :408～417
[14] Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco bay region.J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871～9883
[15] 彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度.中国地震,2003,19(4) :425～430 Peng K Y,Yin X C,He R.Accelerating strain release and earthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical point hypothesis.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2003,19(4) :425～430
[16] 陈国光,计风桔,周荣军.龙门山断裂带晚第四纪活动性分段的初步研究.地震地质,2007,29(3) :657～673 Chen G G,Ji F J,Zhou R J.Primary research of activity segmentation of Longmenshan fault zone since latequaternary.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2007,29(3) :657～673
[17] 顾功叙主编.中国地震目录.北京:科学出版社,1983 Gu G X.Chinese Earthquake Catalog(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,1983
[2] Lei X.How do asperities fracture?An experimental study of unbroken asperities.Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2003,213:347～359
[3] 秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学报,2010,53(4) :1001～1014 Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2010,53(4) :1001～1014
[4] 秦四清,王媛媛,马平.崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律.岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5) :873～880 Qin S Q,Wang Y Y,Ma P.Exponential laws of critical displacement evolution for landslides and avalanches.Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering(in Chinese),2010,29(5) :837～880
[5] 秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论.地球物理学进展,2010,25(3) :749～758 Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.Further verifications on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along a seismogenic fault system and discussions on some science issues.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2010,25(3) :749～758
[6] 秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析.地球物理学进展,2010,25(4) :1168～1174 Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.Prediction of strong earthquakes in the Qinghai,Gansu and Ningxia regions.Progress in Geophysics(in Chinese),2010,25(4) :1168～1174
[7] 张勇,冯万鹏,许力生等.2008年汶川大地震的时空破裂过程.中国科学D辑;地球科学,2008,38(10) :1186～1194 Zhang Y,Feng W P,Xu L S,et al.The spatial-temporal failure process of the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008． Science in China(Series D):Earth Science(in Chinese),2008,38(10) .1186～1194
[8] 滕吉文,白登海,杨辉等.2008汶川M_S8． 0地震发生的深层过程和动力学响应.地球物理学报,2008,51(5) :1385～1402 Teng J W,Bai D H,Yang H,et al.Deep processes and dynamic responses associated with the Wenchuan M_S8． 0 earthquake of 2008． Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5) :1385～1402
[9] 闻学泽,张培震,杜方等.2008年汶川8． 0级地震发生的历史与现今地震活动背景.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :444～454 Wen X Z,Zhang P Z,Du F,et al.The background of historical and modern seismic activities of the occurrence of the 2008 M_S8． 0 Wenchuan,Sichuan,earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :444～454
[10] 张培震,闻学泽,徐锡伟等.2008年汶川8． 0级特大地震孕育和发生的多单元组合模式.科学通报,2009,54(7) :944～953 Zhang P Z,Wen X Z,Xu X W,et al.A multi-element combination mode of the seismogenic process for the Wenchuan M_S8． 0 earthquake occurred in 2008． Chinese Science Bulletin(in Chinese),2009,54(7) :944～953
[11] 李志雄,邵志刚,赵翠萍等.汶川8． 0级地震序列活动的分段性研究.地震,2009,29(1) :26～32 Li Z X,Shao Z G,Zhao C P,et al.Study on the sectional features of the aftershock sequence of the Wenchuan M_S8． 0 earthquake.Earthquake(in Chinese),2009,29(1) :26～32
[12] 华卫,陈章立,郑斯华.2008年汶川8． 0级地震序列震源参数分段特征的研究.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :365～371 Hua W,Chen Z L,Zheng S H.A study on segmentation characteristics of aftershock source parameters of Wenchuan M8． 0 earthquake in 2008． Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :365～371
[13] 陈祖安,林邦慧,白武明等.2008年汶川8． 0级地震孕震机理研究.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :408～417 Chen Z A,Lin B H,Bai W M,et al.The mechanism of generation of May 12,2008 M_S 8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(2) :408～417
[14] Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco bay region.J.Geophys.Res.,1993,98:9871～9883
[15] 彭克银,尹祥础,和锐.用临界点理论讨论应变能加速释放现象和孕震区尺度.中国地震,2003,19(4) :425～430 Peng K Y,Yin X C,He R.Accelerating strain release and earthquake genesis scaling exponents from critical point hypothesis.Earthquake Research in China(in Chinese),2003,19(4) :425～430
[16] 陈国光,计风桔,周荣军.龙门山断裂带晚第四纪活动性分段的初步研究.地震地质,2007,29(3) :657～673 Chen G G,Ji F J,Zhou R J.Primary research of activity segmentation of Longmenshan fault zone since latequaternary.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),2007,29(3) :657～673
[17] 顾功叙主编.中国地震目录.北京:科学出版社,1983 Gu G X.Chinese Earthquake Catalog(in Chinese).Beijing:Science Press,1983
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