中国第四纪气候变化和未来北方干旱灾害分析
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摘要
气候异常变化不仅是气象灾害、海洋灾害、洪涝灾害、生物灾害的源头 ,而且由于地球及其各圈层运动的整体性和联系性 ,气候异常变化的激烈时期也常是地震和地质灾害的多发期。为了对未来自然灾害作出预测 ,文章研究了第四纪气候变化和发展规律 ,据此认为 2 1世纪初虽然可能降水量有所增加 ,但仍属干旱期 ,特别是中国北方将受到干旱灾害的严重威胁 ,并将诱发或伴生一系列其他自然灾害。文章认为要从节流与开源并重的战略高度解决北方水资源短缺问题 ,只有这样才能保证社会经济的可持续发展。
Climatic anomaly is usually the source of meteorological, oceanic, hydrological and biological disasters. The periods with intense climatic abnormal changes frequently corresponds with the severe and multiple phases of seismic and geological disasters, due to interactions between atmosphere, lithosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere in the Earth system. Therefore, in order to preview the future natural disasters of China,it is very useful to understand the climate change, its development process and regularities in the Quaternary. The paper reviews the available data in detail about the Quaternary environmental changes in China and holds that the early days of 21 st century is also belonging to the drought period, although the rainfall in this stage will possibly increase more or less. Especially, the North China will face the austere challenge from extensive drought. And it may lead to serial and various induced or attendant disasters. Because of such challenge, the paper considers that, in order to resolve the problem of water resources shortage of the North China, and thus to guarantee the social-economical sustainable development of this region. The strategy of attaching importance both to reducing expenditure and to broadening source is therefore very necessary.
Climatic anomaly is usually the source of meteorological, oceanic, hydrological and biological disasters. The periods with intense climatic abnormal changes frequently corresponds with the severe and multiple phases of seismic and geological disasters, due to interactions between atmosphere, lithosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere in the Earth system. Therefore, in order to preview the future natural disasters of China,it is very useful to understand the climate change, its development process and regularities in the Quaternary. The paper reviews the available data in detail about the Quaternary environmental changes in China and holds that the early days of 21 st century is also belonging to the drought period, although the rainfall in this stage will possibly increase more or less. Especially, the North China will face the austere challenge from extensive drought. And it may lead to serial and various induced or attendant disasters. Because of such challenge, the paper considers that, in order to resolve the problem of water resources shortage of the North China, and thus to guarantee the social-economical sustainable development of this region. The strategy of attaching importance both to reducing expenditure and to broadening source is therefore very necessary.
引文
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YangHuairen,XieZhiren.Aperspectiveonsea levelfluctuationsandclimaticvariations.ActaGeographicaSinica,1984,39(1):20～32
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LiuQingsheng.TheQuaternaryclimaticcyclesofChinaandthechangesabouttheglobalgeomagneticfieldandtheEarth orbiteccentricityratio.In:TheCommunicationGroupofComprehensiveStudyonChronometric,EarthandBiologyofChinaAssociationforScience&Technologyed.TheComprehensiveStudyonChronometric,EarthandBiology.Beijing:ChinaScienceandTechnologyPress,1989.58～60
15 毕福志,袁又申.中国近代海滩岩分期与近5000多年来气候变化周期的初步研究.见:中国科协天地生综合研究联络组编.天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989.300～304
BiFuzhi,YuanYoushen.Preliminarystudyonthepre modernbeachlithostagingandtheclimatechangeperiodicityinthelast5000yearsofChina.In:TheCommunicationGroupofComprehensiveStudyonChronometric,EarthandBiologyofChinaAssociationforScience&Technologyed.TheComprehensiveStudyonChronometric,EarthandBiology.Beijing:ChinaScienceandTechnologyPress,1989.300～304
16 林观得,孙亨伦编著.海平面.北京:地质出版社,1987.14～37
LinGuande,SunHengluneds.TheSeaLevelChanges.Beijing:GeologicalPublishingHouse,1987.14～37
17 田清鉴.地球自转和重大自然灾害.见:《天文与自然灾害》编委会编.天文与?
2 竺可桢.中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究.中国科学,1973,(2):168～189
ChuKochen.Apreliminarystudyontheclimatechangessincethelast5000yearsinChina.ScientiaSinica,1973,(2):168～189
3 张家诚,朱道明编著.气候变迁及其原因.北京:科学出版社,1976.10～90
ZhangJiacheng,ZhuDaomingeds.ClimateChangeandIt’sCauses.Beijing:SciencePress,1976.10～90
4 孙殿卿,周慕林,潘建英.中国第四纪冰期.地质学报,1977,(2):101～108
SunTienching,ChouMulin,PanChienying.QuaternaryglaciationsinChina.ActaGeologicaSinica,1977,(2):101～108
5 孙殿卿,吴锡浩.关于中国第四纪冰川地质的研究.中国地质科学院院报,1986,第15号:121～134
SunTienching,WuXihao.StudiesontheQuaternaryglacialgeologyofChina.BulletinoftheChineseAcademyofGeologicalSciences,1986,15:121～134
6 孙殿卿,吴锡浩.中国第四纪构造-气候旋回的初步研究.中国第四纪研究,1986,7(2):1～9
SunDianqing,WuXihao.ApreliminarystudyofQuaternarytectono climaticcyclesinChina.QuaternariaSinica,1986,7(2):1～9
7 孙殿卿.中国第四纪亚冰期划分之商讨.第四纪研究,1989,(1):3～23
SunDianqing.OndiscussionofQuaternarysub glaciationsinChina.QuaternarySciences,1989,(1):3～23
8 浦庆余.中国东部地区大理冰期和冰后期———三万年以来我国气候变迁的初步探讨.中国地质科学院地质力学研究所所刊,1982,第2号:57～79
PuQingyu.TheDaliGlaciationandthepostglacialineasternChina:ApreliminarydiscussionofChina’sclimaticvariationduringpast30,000years.BulletinoftheInstituteofGeomechanicsofChineseAcademyofGeologicalSciences,1982,2:57～79
9 耿秀山.中国东部晚更新世以来的海水进退.海洋学报,1981,(3):114～130
GengXiushan.SeawaterencroachmentandretrogressofeasternChinasinceLatePleistoceneepoch.ActaOceanologicaSinica,1981,(3):114～130
10 王靖泰,汪品先.中国东部晚更新世以来海平面升降与气候变化的关系.地理学报,1980,35(4):299～312
WangJingtai,WangPinhsien.Relationshipbetweensea levelchangesandclimaticfluctuationsinEastChinasinceLatePleistocene.ActaGeographicaSinica,1980,35(4):299～312
11 赵希涛,耿秀山,张景文.中国东部20000年来的海平面变化.海洋学报,1979,1(2):269～281
ZhaoXitao,GengXiushan,ZhangJingwen.Thesea levelchangesofeasternChinainthepast20000years.ActaOceanologicaSinica,1979,1(2):269～281
12 王 强,高秀林,李玉德等.十五万年来渤海西、南平原海平面变化及古气候.见:国际地质对比计划第200号项目中国工作组.中国海平面变化.北京:海洋出版社,1986.53～59
WangQiang,GaoXiulin,LiYudeetal.Thesea levelchangesandpaleoclimateinwest southernplainoftheBohaiSeasince15×104years.In:InternationalGeologicalCorrelationProgrammeProjectNo.200ChinaWorkingGroup.ChinaSeaLevelChanges.Beijing:ChinaOceanPress,1986.53～59
13 杨怀仁,谢志仁.气候变化与海平面升降的过程和趋向.地理学报,1984,39(1):20～32
YangHuairen,XieZhiren.Aperspectiveonsea levelfluctuationsandclimaticvariations.ActaGeographicaSinica,1984,39(1):20～32
14 刘庆生.中国第四纪气候旋回与全球地磁场、地球轨道偏心率的变化.见:中国科协天地生综合研究联络组编.天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989.58～60
LiuQingsheng.TheQuaternaryclimaticcyclesofChinaandthechangesabouttheglobalgeomagneticfieldandtheEarth orbiteccentricityratio.In:TheCommunicationGroupofComprehensiveStudyonChronometric,EarthandBiologyofChinaAssociationforScience&Technologyed.TheComprehensiveStudyonChronometric,EarthandBiology.Beijing:ChinaScienceandTechnologyPress,1989.58～60
15 毕福志,袁又申.中国近代海滩岩分期与近5000多年来气候变化周期的初步研究.见:中国科协天地生综合研究联络组编.天地生综合研究.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1989.300～304
BiFuzhi,YuanYoushen.Preliminarystudyonthepre modernbeachlithostagingandtheclimatechangeperiodicityinthelast5000yearsofChina.In:TheCommunicationGroupofComprehensiveStudyonChronometric,EarthandBiologyofChinaAssociationforScience&Technologyed.TheComprehensiveStudyonChronometric,EarthandBiology.Beijing:ChinaScienceandTechnologyPress,1989.300～304
16 林观得,孙亨伦编著.海平面.北京:地质出版社,1987.14～37
LinGuande,SunHengluneds.TheSeaLevelChanges.Beijing:GeologicalPublishingHouse,1987.14～37
17 田清鉴.地球自转和重大自然灾害.见:《天文与自然灾害》编委会编.天文与?
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