从菲律宾2.17泥石流灾难探讨三峡库区的泥石流问题
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摘要
2006年2月17日爆发的菲律宾特大型泥石流灾害是物源、地形地貌、降雨及地震等多因子耦合异变的必然结果,降雨、地震→散体滑坡→泥石流是该泥石流的形成机制,大量的村庄、居民生活在泥石流致灾区内而未进行有效的预警预报是泥石流灾难形成的根本原因.本文从泥石流物源、沟谷形态外貌、气象条件、地震等方面把三峡库区与菲律宾2.17泥石流区进行了对比分析,认为,三峡库区内的物源类型更多、储量更大、水理性能更差,潜在泥石流沟更多,气象条件更差,人类活动更强,致灾危险性更严重,换言之,三峡库区具备了发生大型、特大型泥石流灾害的条件.探讨了三峡库区泥石流研究与防治的基本思路.
Catastrophic debris flow occurring in Philippines on February 17(th),2006 is the inevitable result from coupling and changing of factors such as materials sources,landform and geomorphology,precipitations and earthquake.It is the mechanism for the debris flow to develop that landslide breaks up under action of strong precipitation and weak earthquake,and the reason for the calamity is due to many buildings and residents living in the area of debris flow while there is not any system to foresee and forecast debris flow.In this paper,authors compare basic conditions to trigger debris flow in the area of the Three Gorges reservoir with that in region of Philippines happened on February 17(th),2006,including the materials sources,outline of valley,meteorological conditions and earthquake.Then some conclusions are obtained:in area of the Three Gorges reservoir,classifications and reserves of materials have more quantity;strength under action of water are easier decreased;quantity of debris flow valleys is more;bad meteorological conditions are more obvious;man-made actions are more widely and the trend to cause calamity is more inevitable.In other words,there are enough conditions to trigger catastrophic debris flow in area of the Three Gorges reservoir.Further, some primitative ideals to study and control the debris flow in area of the Three Gorges reservoir are approached.
Catastrophic debris flow occurring in Philippines on February 17(th),2006 is the inevitable result from coupling and changing of factors such as materials sources,landform and geomorphology,precipitations and earthquake.It is the mechanism for the debris flow to develop that landslide breaks up under action of strong precipitation and weak earthquake,and the reason for the calamity is due to many buildings and residents living in the area of debris flow while there is not any system to foresee and forecast debris flow.In this paper,authors compare basic conditions to trigger debris flow in the area of the Three Gorges reservoir with that in region of Philippines happened on February 17(th),2006,including the materials sources,outline of valley,meteorological conditions and earthquake.Then some conclusions are obtained:in area of the Three Gorges reservoir,classifications and reserves of materials have more quantity;strength under action of water are easier decreased;quantity of debris flow valleys is more;bad meteorological conditions are more obvious;man-made actions are more widely and the trend to cause calamity is more inevitable.In other words,there are enough conditions to trigger catastrophic debris flow in area of the Three Gorges reservoir.Further, some primitative ideals to study and control the debris flow in area of the Three Gorges reservoir are approached.
引文
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[2]孙守勋,腾军.菲律宾海的气候特征[J].海洋预报,2003,20(3):31-39.
[3]陈洪凯,唐红梅,马永泰,等.公路泥石流研究及治理[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.36-65.
[4]唐红梅,陈洪凯,金发均,等.美姑河流域公路泥石流物院成因[J].山地学报,2005,23(6):714-718.
[5]陈洪凯,唐红梅,吴承平等.四川省公路水毁与地质环境的关系[J].重庆交通学院学报,1994,13(4):24-33.
[6]陈洪凯,唐红梅.四川境内公路水毁的基本特征及防治问题[J].重庆交通学院学报,1994,13(5):103-107.
[7]唐红梅,陈洪凯,祝晓寅,等.重庆库区新构造应力场及其对滑坡宏观活动规律的控制[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2000,19(3):352-356.
[8]谭炳炎.三峡库区泥石流活动及其发展趋势[J].中国铁道科学,2003,24(5):9-14.
[9]谭炳炎.三峡库区泥石流活动发展趋势的分析预测[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):91-95.
[10]陈洪凯,翁其能,袁建议,等.重庆库区典型松散土体的岩土力学参数敏感性试验分析[J].重庆大学学报,2000,23(5):88-93.
[11]肖汉忠.公路沿线松散体滑坡发育机理研究[J].重庆交通学院学报,1996,15(4):127-130.
[12]肖汉忠.降雨对不良地质现象发育的基本作用[J].重庆交通学院学报,1996,15(3):126-130.
[13]游珍,蒋庆丰,徐刚.重庆市暴雨规律及其引发的灾害初探[J].重庆环境科学,2001,23(3):13-16.
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