强震后高烈度区泥石流危险性评价——以汶川地震区G213线映秀到彻底关段为例
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摘要
强震在高烈度的山区往往诱发大量的崩塌和滑坡,一到雨季不同规模的泥石流频频暴发,造成严重的灾害。以处于汶川地震XI度烈度区的213国道映秀到彻底关段的21条沟为例,探讨强震后如何对高烈度区的沟道泥石流的规模、频率、危险性作出尽快评价。为此,针对地震泥石流的特点和形成条件,确定影响泥石流规模和频率的评价因子;并从已有的相关图件和遥感影像中获取评价因子的特征值;用简单的数学方法将因子特征值分为五级,并归一化为0.0到1.0的标准值;用层次分析法计算出评价因子的权重;然后用常用或改进的评价模型,对21条沟泥石流的规模、频率、危险性分五级作出评价;最后用强震后3 a间各沟实际发生的泥石流规模和频率对评价结果进行检验,结果表明两者吻合度比较好。这种尽快的评价方法,可供其他山区强震后高烈度区的泥石流危险性评价参考。
Tremendous landslides and collapses caused by intense earthquake usually induce numerous debris flows in rainy season.This study explores to make a quick assessment of frequency,magnitude,and danger of debris flow by a case study of the Yingxiu-Chediguan section of G213 highway hit by the Wenchuan earthquake.Key factors influencing the formation,magnitude,and frequency of debris flow are chosen and numerically determined through interpretation of remote sensing images and related DEM maps.The values are divided into five grades and normalized between 0 and 1.The weight for each factor is calculated by hierarchy analysis.Finally,the universal model is used to assess debris flows in 21 gullies.Comparison with the real occurrences indicates the assessment results are in good agreement.The assessment system can be further applied to debris flows in other regions of highintensity earthquake.
Tremendous landslides and collapses caused by intense earthquake usually induce numerous debris flows in rainy season.This study explores to make a quick assessment of frequency,magnitude,and danger of debris flow by a case study of the Yingxiu-Chediguan section of G213 highway hit by the Wenchuan earthquake.Key factors influencing the formation,magnitude,and frequency of debris flow are chosen and numerically determined through interpretation of remote sensing images and related DEM maps.The values are divided into five grades and normalized between 0 and 1.The weight for each factor is calculated by hierarchy analysis.Finally,the universal model is used to assess debris flows in 21 gullies.Comparison with the real occurrences indicates the assessment results are in good agreement.The assessment system can be further applied to debris flows in other regions of highintensity earthquake.
引文
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[2]Han Yongshun,Li Longwei,Zhu Yingyan,et al.Hazard assessment of debris flow in severely-affected area by Wenchuan Earthquake:a case study along Dujiangyan-Wenchuan Highway[J].Science of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,10(1):6-11[韩用顺,李龙伟,朱颖彦,等.汶川地震区泥石流危险性评估——以都江堰-汶川公路为例[J].中国水土保持科学,2012,10(1):6-11]
[3]Liu Qinghua,Tang Chuan,Chang Ming,et al.Risk of debris flow in Epicenter of Wenchuan Earthquake Yingxiu of sichuan[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2012,30(5):592-598[刘清华,唐川,常鸣,等.汶川地震强震区映秀地区泥石流的危险性[J].山地学报,2012,30(5):592-598]
[4]Hydrological station of Water Resources&Power Engineering Bureau of Sichuan Province.Hydrological handbook of Sichuan province[Z].Chengdu,1999.[四川省水利电力总局水文总站.四川省水文手册[Z].成都,1999.]
[5]Tang Bangxing,Liu Suqing.Prevention and control of debris and its research in Aba Tibetan and qiang autonomous prefecture,Sichuan province[M]Chengdu:Chengdu University of Science and Technology Press,1993:4-84[唐邦兴,柳素清.四川阿坝藏族羌族自治州泥石流及其防治研究[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社,1993:4-84]
[6]Li Bode.Mathematical modeling method[M].Lanzhou:Gansu Education Press,2006:276-286[李伯德.数学建模方法[M].兰州:甘肃教育出版社,2006:276-286]
[7]Liu Xilin,Mo Duowen.Risk assessment of debris flow[M].Beijing:Science Press,2003:1-32[刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流风险评价[M].北京:科学出版社,2003:1-32]
[8]Du Ronghuan,Kang Zhicheng,Chen Xunqian,et al.Comprehensive investigation and prevention planning of Xiaojiang debris flow in Yunnan province[M].Chongqing:Chongqing Branch of Science and Technology Literature Press,1987:17-266[杜榕桓,康志成,陈循谦,等.云南小江泥石流综合考察与防治规划[M].重庆:科学技术文献出版社重庆分社,1987:17-266]
[9]Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Gryopedology,CAS;Traffic Science Institute of Gansn Province,China.Debris flow in Gansu Provivce[M].Beijing:People’s Transportation Press,1987:1-89[中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所,甘肃省交通科学研究所.甘肃省泥石流[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1987:1-89]
[10]Wu Jishan,Tion Lianquan,Kang Zhicheng,et al.Bebris flow and its comprehensive control[M].Beijing:Science Press,1993:1-214[吴积善,田连权,康志成,等.泥石流及其综合治理[M].北京:科学出版社,1993:1-214]
[11]Zeng Siwei,Zhao Dongzhi,Zhang Youan.Study on debrisflowsupplyment of China[J].Journal of Ganju Sciences,1996,8(Suppl.):109-114[曾思伟,赵冬至,张又安.我国泥石流冲出量的研[J].甘肃科学学报,1996,8(增):109-114〗
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