三峡—丹江口及邻区区域地壳稳定性的模糊数学评价
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摘要
三峡一丹江口及邻区是南水北调中线补水工程线路的所在区域。以构造稳定性评价为主,辅以地面稳定性评价。选择地质、地震、活动断裂、地壳形变、地质灾害等共16个指标因素,通过专家咨询、打分,并最终综合集成确定了各指标因素的权重大小,运用模糊数学方法对该研究区进行了区域地壳稳定性评价。评价结果表明,该研究区共划分出相对较不稳定区3个、相对较稳定区15个、相对稳定区8个,未出现不稳定区。并对模糊数学方法进行了有意义的探讨,指出因素及其权重的决定对整个评价结果的影响至关重要,同时数据的准备及数据的二次分析提高对整个评价结果的可信度提供了重要保证,对今后的中线补水工程线路的选择提供了一定的指导和进一步论证的基础。
The Sanxia (Three gorges)-Danjiangkou Region and its adjacent Area are,in the area of the mid- dle line for diverting the Yangtze River to the Han River in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Fuzzy mathematical method (FMM) was applied in the quantitative assessment of the crust stability of the region,with the priority given to structure stability.The ground stability was also considered.16 indexes such as geological and earth-quake activity fault,crust deformation,geological disaster were selected.The power value for each index was confirmed through expert system in order to ensure the rationality of the assessment.It is revealed that the region has 3 sections of relatively less instability,15 sections of relatively hypo-stability,8 sections of relative stability.Meanwhile,the reliability and limit of the mathematical meth- od were also discussed in this paper.It is shown that the selection of the indexes and their power value are very important for the results and the results obtained at present is of significance for future management of the Three Gorges Project,and will be of reference values for selecting the waterline for diverting the Yangtze River to the Han River.
The Sanxia (Three gorges)-Danjiangkou Region and its adjacent Area are,in the area of the mid- dle line for diverting the Yangtze River to the Han River in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Fuzzy mathematical method (FMM) was applied in the quantitative assessment of the crust stability of the region,with the priority given to structure stability.The ground stability was also considered.16 indexes such as geological and earth-quake activity fault,crust deformation,geological disaster were selected.The power value for each index was confirmed through expert system in order to ensure the rationality of the assessment.It is revealed that the region has 3 sections of relatively less instability,15 sections of relatively hypo-stability,8 sections of relative stability.Meanwhile,the reliability and limit of the mathematical meth- od were also discussed in this paper.It is shown that the selection of the indexes and their power value are very important for the results and the results obtained at present is of significance for future management of the Three Gorges Project,and will be of reference values for selecting the waterline for diverting the Yangtze River to the Han River.
引文
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[15]Wang Si-jing.Geomchanical classification and evaluation of crustal stability for planning and siteselection[A].Proc.7th. Int.Congr.International Association of Engineering Geology [C],1994.2 079～2 086.
[16]许再良，李国和，许兆义，等．鲁南地区区域地壳稳定性评价与胶新铁路地质选线[J]．工程地质学报，2002，10(2)：209～215．
[2]陈立德，陈州丰，李旭兵，等．南水北调中线大宁河补水工程区域工程地质条件概述[J]．华南地质与矿产，2007．1：65～73．
[3]刘传正．重大工程场址的地壳稳定度及其应用[J]．工程地质学报，1993，1(2)：44～50．
[4]谭周地．区域稳定性与工程地质环境综合评价[J]．长春地质学院学报(工程地质专辑)，1986．
[5]殷跃平．区域地壳稳定性研究的专家知识结构模型[J]．水文地质与工程地质，1990，(4)：30～34．
[6]李兴唐，许兵，黄鼎成．区域地壳稳定性研究理论与方法[M]．北京：地质出版版社，1987．
[7]Sun Ye,Zeng W,Chen Q.Some considerations on assessment of regional crustal stability,IGCP Project250 [M].BeiJing: Seismological Press,1991.22～24.
[8]孙叶，谭成轩，王瑞江，等．长江三峡工程坝区及外围地壳稳定性评价与分区研究[J]．地球学报，1996，17(3)：258～268．
[9]胡道功，吴树仁，王连捷，等．长江三峡及邻区地震危险区的三维数值模拟与地震危险性分析[J]．长春科技大学学报，1999，29(1)：55～59．
[10]王清云，李安然，张秋文．长江三峡地区地球物理异常带地表地质特征[J]．地壳形变与地震，1998，18(1)：64～69．
[11]张众服．三峡地区地形变监测与区域地壳稳定性分析[J]．地壳形变与地震，1996，16(4)：48～53．
[12]汪华斌，吴树仁，汪稔．长江三峡库区滑坡灾害危险性评价[J]．长江流域资源与环境，1998，7(2)：186～192．
[13]冯希杰，刘玉海．区域稳定性评价定量化与模糊评判[J]．西安地质学院学报，1986，8(4)：89～94．
[14]王思敬，李国和．金沙江流域区域地壳稳定性分区与定量评价[J]．工程地质学报，1998，6(4)：289～299．
[15]Wang Si-jing.Geomchanical classification and evaluation of crustal stability for planning and siteselection[A].Proc.7th. Int.Congr.International Association of Engineering Geology [C],1994.2 079～2 086.
[16]许再良，李国和，许兆义，等．鲁南地区区域地壳稳定性评价与胶新铁路地质选线[J]．工程地质学报，2002，10(2)：209～215．
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