兰州地温、降水资料对“正多负少规则”的检验
摘要
利用1954—2006年的兰州地温、降水资料对"正多负少规则"进行了季、月检验,探讨了地震和表面地温对季、月降水预测的干扰程度。春夏两季预测夏秋两季降水的同号率达62.5%,可初步用于预测实践,但月预报则效果不明显,并且采用地表温度订正后效果也不好;排除强震干扰后,在"强震平静年月"3.2 m月际变温对应下个月少雨的几率是72%,这可用于做少雨的气候预测;Ms≥6级强震是兰州出现多雨期的一个强激发因素;兰州月降水资料的空间代表性不高,信度为0.99的相关半径平均仅约170 km。
For the seasonally and monthly precipitation prediction test of "rule of more rain in positive GT and less rain in negative GT" ground temperature and rainfall data of Lanzhou in 1954—2006,we discuss about the impact degree of earthquake and surface ground temperature on the seasonal and monthly rainfall projecting.The same symbol ratio of the rainfall prediction of summer and autumn using spring and summer data reach to 62.5%,this result can preliminarily be applied to prediction operation,but for monthly prediction had no such performence moreover,the result is not good after correction by ground temperature.The ratio of 3.2 m inter-monthly variable temperature corresponding less rainfall in next month is 72% without the strong earthquake quiet month,this can be used to less rainfall climate prediction.Strong earthquakes of Ms≥6 are intensive stimulating facters of pluvial period in Lanzhou.Spatial representative of monthly precipitation data in Lanzhou is not very high,an average of the relative radius of 0.01 reliability is only about 170 km.
For the seasonally and monthly precipitation prediction test of "rule of more rain in positive GT and less rain in negative GT" ground temperature and rainfall data of Lanzhou in 1954—2006,we discuss about the impact degree of earthquake and surface ground temperature on the seasonal and monthly rainfall projecting.The same symbol ratio of the rainfall prediction of summer and autumn using spring and summer data reach to 62.5%,this result can preliminarily be applied to prediction operation,but for monthly prediction had no such performence moreover,the result is not good after correction by ground temperature.The ratio of 3.2 m inter-monthly variable temperature corresponding less rainfall in next month is 72% without the strong earthquake quiet month,this can be used to less rainfall climate prediction.Strong earthquakes of Ms≥6 are intensive stimulating facters of pluvial period in Lanzhou.Spatial representative of monthly precipitation data in Lanzhou is not very high,an average of the relative radius of 0.01 reliability is only about 170 km.
引文
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[2]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(下)[M].北京:气象出版社,2009
[3]唐红玉,汤懋苍,赵燕宁.龙羊峡入库流量的地下原因和预测方法探讨[J].高原气象,2004,23(4):472-475
[4]汤懋苍,刘小凤,李栋梁,等.对2003下半年的天灾预测意见和结果检验[J].高原气象,2005,24(4):585-589
[5]汤懋苍,张拥军,李栋梁.短期气候预测地气图方法的7条预报规则[J].高原气象,2005,24(2):218-222
[6]汤懋苍,赵红岩,张存杰,等.地气图预测气候变化的原理和方法(上).北京:气象出版社,2007:1-132
[7]赵红岩,汤懋苍,张拥军,等.“旱—震—涝”关系及其在短期气候预测中的可能应用[J].自然科学进展,2007,17(1):132-137
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