时间相依模型与泊松模型计算结果的对比分析——以道孚及炉霍潜源为例
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摘要
运用时间相依的布朗过程时间模型和泊松模型,分别计算了炉霍潜源和道孚潜源7.0≤M<7.5和7.5≤M<8.0震级档未来50a的发震概率,并将其与根据中国地震动参数区划图(2001)潜在震源区划分综合方案且运用分档泊松模型所得的计算结果进行对比分析。结果表明:①应用地震矩率方法得到的各断裂段特征化地震复发间隔,无论是BPT模型或泊松模型所得到的炉霍和道孚潜源在7.0≤M<7.5震级档的发震概率计算结果,均远大于根据中国地震动参数区划图(2001)潜在震源区划分综合方案所得的计算结果;②对于使用同样的由地震矩率方法得到的各断裂段特征化地震复发间隔数据,BPT模型和泊松模型所得的计算结果也不相同。
The earthquake probabilities of Luhuo and Daofu seismic zones with magnitudes range from 7.0≤M<7.5 and 7.5≤M<8.0 in future 50a were calculated by applying Brownian Passage Time and Possion models. The comparison with the results calculated by applying Possion model according to synthetical seismic zone delineation of the Zonation Map of Seimic Ground Motion Parameter suggests the follows: 1) the computation results of earthquake probabilities of the two sources with magnitude ranging between 7.0 and 7.5, by using both BPT and Possion models that employed the recurrence intervals of faults obtained by applying moment rate method, are more larger than that obtained from synthetical seismic zone delineation of the Zonation Map of Seimic Ground Motion Parameter; 2) the computation results derived from the earthquake moment rate method are quite different from BPT model and Possion model respectively under the condition of using the same data of recurrence intervals.
The earthquake probabilities of Luhuo and Daofu seismic zones with magnitudes range from 7.0≤M<7.5 and 7.5≤M<8.0 in future 50a were calculated by applying Brownian Passage Time and Possion models. The comparison with the results calculated by applying Possion model according to synthetical seismic zone delineation of the Zonation Map of Seimic Ground Motion Parameter suggests the follows: 1) the computation results of earthquake probabilities of the two sources with magnitude ranging between 7.0 and 7.5, by using both BPT and Possion models that employed the recurrence intervals of faults obtained by applying moment rate method, are more larger than that obtained from synthetical seismic zone delineation of the Zonation Map of Seimic Ground Motion Parameter; 2) the computation results derived from the earthquake moment rate method are quite different from BPT model and Possion model respectively under the condition of using the same data of recurrence intervals.
引文
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闻学泽,2000.四川西部鲜水河-安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震破裂分段特征.地震地质,22(3):239—249.
张国民,马宏生,王辉等,2005.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动.地球物理学报,48(3):602—610.
张培震,邓起东,张国民等,2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块.中国科学,D辑,33(增刊):12—20.
Ellsworth W.L.,1999.A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities.U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.,99—552.
Matthews M.V.,Ellsworth W.L.and Reasenberg P.A.,2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,92:2233—2250.
Reid H.F.,1910.The mechnics of the earthquake,in the California Earthquake of April18,1906,(Lawsom,A.C.,Chairman),Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission(Reprinted1969)(Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication87,v.2,1910),192pp.
Schwartz D.P.and Coppersmith K.J.,1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones.J.Geophys.Res.,89:5681—5698.
Tapponnier P.,Peltzer G.,LeDain A.Y.et al.,1982.Propagating extrusion tectonics in Asia:new insights from simple experiments with plasticine.Geology,10(12):611—616.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,2003.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region:2000to2030.USGS Open-File Rept,3—214.
冉洪流,何宏林,2006.鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级(M≥6.7)及复发间隔研究.地球物理学报,49(1):153—161.
闻学泽,2000.四川西部鲜水河-安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震破裂分段特征.地震地质,22(3):239—249.
张国民,马宏生,王辉等,2005.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动.地球物理学报,48(3):602—610.
张培震,邓起东,张国民等,2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块.中国科学,D辑,33(增刊):12—20.
Ellsworth W.L.,1999.A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities.U.S.Geol.Surv.Open-File Rept.,99—552.
Matthews M.V.,Ellsworth W.L.and Reasenberg P.A.,2002.A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,92:2233—2250.
Reid H.F.,1910.The mechnics of the earthquake,in the California Earthquake of April18,1906,(Lawsom,A.C.,Chairman),Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission(Reprinted1969)(Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication87,v.2,1910),192pp.
Schwartz D.P.and Coppersmith K.J.,1984.Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes:examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas Fault Zones.J.Geophys.Res.,89:5681—5698.
Tapponnier P.,Peltzer G.,LeDain A.Y.et al.,1982.Propagating extrusion tectonics in Asia:new insights from simple experiments with plasticine.Geology,10(12):611—616.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities,2003.Earthquake probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region:2000to2030.USGS Open-File Rept,3—214.
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