云南地区强震活跃期前调制比的中长期近场特征

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英文篇名：The Mid-long Term Characteristics of the Near Field of the Modulation ration before an Active Period of Strong Earthquake in Yunnan Region 中文刊名：地震研究 英文刊名：Journal of Seismological Research 作者：蔡静观 ; 李永莉 ; 刘丽芳 ; 秦嘉政 ; 苏有锦 ; 付虹 英文作者：Cai Jingguan Li Yongli Liu Lifang Qin Janzheng Su Youjin Fu Hong (Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province ; Kunming ; 650041) 中文关键词：调制比 ; 强震活跃期 ; 近场特征 ; 云南 英文关键词：modulation ; active period ; near field characteristics ; Yunnan 出版日期：2001-10-23 机构：云南省地震局,云南省地震局,云南省地震局,云南省地震局,云南省地震局,云南省地震局 昆明,650041 ,昆明,650041 ,昆明,650041 ,昆明,650041 ,昆明,650041 ,昆明,650041 年：2001 期：04 出版单位：地震研究

摘要

通过逐年追踪云南地区 3～ 4 5级地震调制比图象 ,在以 0 67≤Rm <1为异常指标基础上研究了调制地震的中长期近场特征 ,发现 :强震活跃期前调制比的异常区预示了活跃期强震的危险区 ;调制比最大值出现在活跃期前 3～ 5年 ,活跃期前 1～ 2年整个云南地区无调制比异常 ;强震连发背景下的后续强震仅在震前 1年异常 ;7级地震间发生的 6 7～ 6 8级地震调制比异常幅度小。
Based on the anomalous index of 0.67≤Rm<1.00, the mid-long term characteristics of the near field of the modulation earthquake has been studied through yearly tracing the pattern of the modulation ratio of earthquake with M3.0-4.5 in Yunnan region. It is discovered that the anomalous areas of the modulation ratio before an active period of strong earthquake indicate a risk area of the strong earthquake. The maximum value of the modulation ratio appears 3-5 years before an active period. There is no anomaly of modulation ratio 1-2 years before an active period in Yunnan region. The anomaly for the following strong earthquake under the background of series of strong earthquakes only appears one year before the earthquake. The anomalous amplitude of the modulation ratio for the earthquake with M6.7-6.8 between the earthquakes of M7 is small.

引文

〔1〕郭增建调制模式和调制比在地震预报中的意义国际地震动态,1995,(3)
    〔2〕秦保燕由孕震后期非线性层次演化探讨短临预报问题地震研究,1998,21(1)
    〔3〕秦保燕等震源系统小震调制比和异常面积起伏加剧的时空特征与强震的中短期预报西北地震学报,1994,16(1)