基于时-空ETAS模型给出的川滇地区背景地震活动和强震潜在危险区
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摘要
利用基于时-空传染型余震序列(Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence,简称ETAS)模型的随机除丛法,重新审视了2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0地震前可能存在的长期地震活动异常,研究了川滇地区背景地震活动特征,并评估了当前的强震危险状态.对川滇地区1 970年以来的M_L3.0以上的背景地震和丛集地震活动的研究结果表明,该地区地震丛集特征明显、时空分布很不均匀、地震序列常有前震事件.直接将概率值作为地震计数的权重,对地震丛集率空间分布图像分析表明,汶川M_S8.0地震前,龙门山断裂带中南段存在着长期、大范围的地震丛集率低值区,震前该段处于应力闭锁状态.对川滇地区地震从集率低值区内背景地震与全部地震的累积次数、b值和新定义的Δb等统计参量的分析表明,龙日坝与龙门山断裂带具有地震活动的关联性,川滇地区当前的强震潜在危险区可能是巧家地区和汶川M_S8.0地震破裂尚未穿越的龙门山断裂带南段.此外,还发现b值倾向于反映局部应力场变化,而△b能较为敏感地给出更大范围应力场的相对变化.
Based on the time-space epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and stochastic declustering method, a retrospective study was conducted to investigate whether long- term seismicity anomalies existed before the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, and to evaluate the current potential risks of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.We analyzed the background and clustering of earthquakes above M_L3.0 in the period from 1977 to the day before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, the results showed that seismic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan region was significantly clustered, heterogeneously distributed in space and time, and the earthquake sequences were usually preceded by foreshock events.Through the analysis of the spatial variation of the'clustering seismicity ratio', we found that there existed a long-term and large area of low'clustering seismicity ratio'in the middle-south section of Longmenshan faults, which implied that this region had been in a state of stress barrier before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake.Statistics of several parameters including cumulative numbers of background and total sesimicity, b value and newly defined Δb value were conducted to evaluate the current potential risk of strong earthquakes in the areas of low'clustering seismicity ratio'in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.The results showed that the seismic activity is correlated significantly between the Longriba and Longmenshan faults, and that the Qiaojia region and the southern segment of Longmenshan faults have high potential of strong earthquakes.Moreover, we also found that the b value trends to reflect the local variations of stress field, while Δb can reveal sensitively the relative variation of the stress field in a larger spatial range.
Based on the time-space epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and stochastic declustering method, a retrospective study was conducted to investigate whether long- term seismicity anomalies existed before the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, and to evaluate the current potential risks of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.We analyzed the background and clustering of earthquakes above M_L3.0 in the period from 1977 to the day before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, the results showed that seismic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan region was significantly clustered, heterogeneously distributed in space and time, and the earthquake sequences were usually preceded by foreshock events.Through the analysis of the spatial variation of the'clustering seismicity ratio', we found that there existed a long-term and large area of low'clustering seismicity ratio'in the middle-south section of Longmenshan faults, which implied that this region had been in a state of stress barrier before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake.Statistics of several parameters including cumulative numbers of background and total sesimicity, b value and newly defined Δb value were conducted to evaluate the current potential risk of strong earthquakes in the areas of low'clustering seismicity ratio'in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.The results showed that the seismic activity is correlated significantly between the Longriba and Longmenshan faults, and that the Qiaojia region and the southern segment of Longmenshan faults have high potential of strong earthquakes.Moreover, we also found that the b value trends to reflect the local variations of stress field, while Δb can reveal sensitively the relative variation of the stress field in a larger spatial range.
引文
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Yi G X, Wen X Z, Fan J, et al. Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2004,17(3) : 322～333
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[40] Lin C H. The 1999 Taiwan earthquake: a proposed stressfocusing, heel-shaped model. Bull. Seism. Soc. Amer., 2001, 91:1053～1061
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[2] 胡小刚,郝晓光.汶川大地震宽带地震仪短临异常及成因初探.地球物理学报,2008,51(6) :1726～1734Hu X G, Hao X G. The short-term anomalies detected by broadband seismographs before the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008, 51(6) : 1726～1734
[3] 祝芙英,吴云,林剑等.汶川M_S8． 0地震前电离层TEC异常分析.大地测量与地球动力学,2008,28(6) :16～21Zhu F Y, Wu Y, Lin J, et al. Study on ionospheric TEC anomaly prior to Wenchuan M_S8． 0 earthquake. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics (in Chinese), 2008, 28(6) : 16～21
[4] Huang Q. Seismicity changes prior to the M_s8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2008, 35: L23308, doi:10． 1029/2008GL036270
[5] Sykes L R, Shaw B E, Scholz C H. Rethinking earthquake prediction. Pure Appl. Geophys. , 1999, 155:207～232
[6] 闻学泽,张培震,杜方等.2008年汶川8． 0级地震发生的历史与现今地震活动背景.地球物理学报,2009,52(2) :444～454Wen X Z, Zhang P Z, Du F, et al. The background of historical and modern seismic activities of the occurrence of the 2008 Ms8． 0 Wenchuan, Sichuan, earthquake. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2009, 52(2) : 444～454
[7] Giardini D, Gruenthal G, Shedlock K, et al. The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map. In: Lee, W. H. K., Kanamori, H. , Jennings, P. C. and Kisslinger, C. (eds.), International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology. Amsterdam: Academic Press, 2003． 1233 ～1239
[8] Parvez I A, Vaccari F, Panza G F. Influence of source distance on site effects in Delhi city. Current Science, 2006, 91(6) : 827～835
[9] Cornell C A. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc. Amer. , 1968, 58: 1583～1606
[10] Panza G F, Romaneli F, Vaccari F, et al. Seismic ground motion modeling and damage earthquake scenarios: A possible bridge between seismologists and seismic engineers. In: Chen Y T, Panza G F, Wu Z L (eds.), Earthquake: Hazard, Risk, and Strong Ground Motion. Beijing: Seismological Press, 2004． 323～349
[11] Helmstetter A, Sornette D. Foreshocks explained by cascades of triggered seismicity. J. Geophys. Res. , 2003, 108(B10) : 2457, doi:10． 1029/2003JB002409
[12] Zhuang J, Ogata Y, Vere-Jones D. Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 2002, 97:369～380
[13] Ogata Y. Space-time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes. J. Geophys. Res. , 2004, 109: B03308, doi: 10． 1029/2003JB002621
[14] Zhuang J, Chang C P, Ogata Y, et al. A study on the background and clustering seismicity in the Taiwan region by using point process models. J. Geophys. Res. , 2005, 110: B05S18, doi: 10． 1029/2004JB003157
[15] 闻学泽.活动断裂的可变破裂尺度地震行为与级联破裂模式的应用.地震学报,2001,23(4) :380～390Wen X Z. Earthquake behavior of variable rupture-scale on active faults and application of the cascade-rupturing model. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2001, 14(4) : 404～416
[16] 易桂喜,闻学泽,范 军等.由地震活动参数分析安宁河一则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性.地震学报,2004,26(3) :294～303
Yi G X, Wen X Z, Fan J, et al. Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2004,17(3) : 322～333
[17] 易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维等.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与地震危险性.中国地震,2006,22(2) :117～125YiG X, Wen X W, Wang S W, et al. Study on faulting behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of the Longmenshan-Minshan fault zones from current seismicity parameters. Chinese Earthquake Research (in Chinese) , 2006, 22 (2) : 117～125
[18] 易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究.地球物理学报,2008,51(6) :1719～1725Yi G X, Wen X Z, Su Y J. Study on the potential strongearthquake risk for the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block, China. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008, 51(6) : 1719～1725
[19] Gkarlaouni C, Papadimitriou E E, Karakostas V G, et al. Implication of fault interaction to seismic hazard assessment in Sichuan-Yunnan provinces of southeastern China. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2008, 21(2) : 181～121
[20] Omori F. On aftershocks of earthquakes. J. Coll. Sci. Imp. Univ. Tokyo, 1894, 7: 11～20
[21] Ogata Y. Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. , 1988, 83: 9～27
[22] Ogata Y. Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis. Tectonophysics, 1989, 169:159～174
[23] Ogata Y. Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock regions with relative quiescence. J. Geophys. Res. , 2001, 106: 8729～8744
[24] Gardner J K, Knopoff L. Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bull. Seism. Soc. Amer. , 1974, 64: 1363～1367
[25] Kossobokov V G. Testing earthquake prediction methods: The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude M_wHRV≥5． 8． Tectonophysics, 2006,413: 25～31
[26] Zhuang J, Ogata Y. Properties of the probability distribution associated with the largest event in an earthquake cluster and their implications to foreshocks. Physical Review E. , 2006, 73: 046134, doi: 10． 1103/PhysRevE.73． 046134
[27] Kagan Y Y. Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues. Geophys. J. Int. , 1991, 106:135～148
[28] Musmeci F, Vere-Jones D. A space-time clustering model for historical Earthquakes. Ann. Inst. Star Math. , 1992, 44: 1～11
[29] Console R, Murru M. A simple and testable model for earthquake clustering. J. Geophys. Res., 2001, 106(B5) :8699～8711
[30] Ogata Y. Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 1998, 50(2) : 379～402
[31] Reasenberg P. Second-order moment of central California Seismicity, 1969-1982． J. Geophys. Res., 1985, 90: 5479～5495
[32] Xu X W, Deng Q D. Nonlinear characteristics of paleoseismicity in China. J. Geophys. Res., 1996, 101: 6209～6231
[33] Huang Y, Wu J P, Zhang T Z, et al. Relocation of the M8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake and its aftershock sequence. Science in China Series D : Earth Sciences, 2008, 51 : 1703～ 1711
[34] 苏有锦,李永莉,李忠华等.川滇地区区域地震目录完整性最小震级分析.地震研究,2003,26(增刊):10～16Su Y J, Li Y L, Li Z H, et al. Analysis of Minimum complete magnitude of earthquake catalogue in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Journal of Seismological Research (in Chinese), 2003, 26(Suppl. ) : 10～16
[35] 国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪～公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, State Seismological Bureau. The catalogue of Chinese historical strong earthquakes ( in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press, 1995
[36] 中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912～1990 M_S≥4． 7) .北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, China Earthquake Administration. The catalogue of Chinese modern earthquakes (in Chinese). Beijing: China Science and Technology Press, 1999
[37] Kafka A L. Statistical analysis of the hypothesis that seismicity delineates areas where future large earthquakes are likely to occur in the central and eastern United States. Seis. Res. Lett., 2002, 73:990～1001
[38] Console R, Murru M, Catalli F, et al. Real time forecasts through an earthquake clustering model constrained by the rate-and-state constitutive law: Comparison with a purely stochastic ETAS model. Seis. Res. Lett., 2007, 78: 49～56
[39] Parsons T. Persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults. Nature Geoscience, 2008, 1: 59～63, doi: 10． 1038/ngeo. 2007． 36
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