关于中国未来强震的长期预测
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摘要
通过研究中国的长时间地震序列,发现在过去700年中存在有明显的44年周期.利用这一周期进行预测的话,可以很好地计算出唐山地震和汶川地震的发震年份.同时利用该周期预测了未来几年国内强震的发震时间,研究认为2015年我国可能发生强烈地震.
China has suffered two great earthquakes in recent 3 years,the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2010 M7.2 Yushu earthquake,and they caused a big loss.So it is meaningful to predict the next one.By analyzing the earthquake time series of China,we find that there exists a 44a earthquake period in the last 700 years.With this period the time of some strong earthquakes can be predicted well,such as Tangshan M7.8 earthquake in 1976 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in 2008.According to this period,we consider that there will probably be a strong earthquake nearly M8.0 in China in 2015.
China has suffered two great earthquakes in recent 3 years,the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2010 M7.2 Yushu earthquake,and they caused a big loss.So it is meaningful to predict the next one.By analyzing the earthquake time series of China,we find that there exists a 44a earthquake period in the last 700 years.With this period the time of some strong earthquakes can be predicted well,such as Tangshan M7.8 earthquake in 1976 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in 2008.According to this period,we consider that there will probably be a strong earthquake nearly M8.0 in China in 2015.
引文
[1]McCaffrey Robert.The Next Great Earthquake[J].Sci-ence,2007,315:1675-1676.
[2]Bakun W H,Aagaard B,et al.Implications for Predic-tion and Hazard Assessment From the 2004 ParkfieldEarthquake[J].Nature,2005,437:969-974.
[2]Bakun W H,Aagaard B,et al.Implications for Predic-tion and Hazard Assessment From the 2004 ParkfieldEarthquake[J].Nature,2005,437:969-974.
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