广东新丰江水库地震垂向引潮力的调制作用研究
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摘要
按照前人对新丰江水库地震序列特征的研究,以1965年为界将新丰江水库地震序列分为前期和后期,对前期(MS≥4.3)和后期(MS≥4.2)地震垂向引潮力的触发特征进行了研究。发现前期15次MS≥4.3级地震发震时刻垂向引潮力的方向处于向下区间的有12次,占80%;其中MS≥4.5级地震全部都处于垂向向下区间,说明前期在高水位荷载的背景下,垂向引潮力的向下区间是此阶段的优势触发时段;后期特别是1980年以后6次MS≥4.2级地震发震时刻垂向引潮力和水位荷载对应力场的扰动方向都是一致的,说明后期孕震区应力场处于临界的非稳定状态,水位荷载及垂向引潮力方向的变化有可能共同诱发了地震。还利用基于垂向引潮力不同方向区间的调制比,对6次显著地震进行了回顾性检验,证实其具有一定的短临预报意义。
According to the predecessors' study on the characteristics of Xinfengjiang reservoir-induced earthquake sequence,it was divided into early period and later period by 1965.This paper studied the characteristics of vertical tidal force leading to earthquakes with MS≥4.3 in early period and MS≥4.2 in later period.We found that there were 12 of 15 earthquakes,where 80% MS≥4.3 and 100% MS≥4.5 earthquakes occurred in the interval of downward compressive stress of vertical tidal force.The results show that the interval of vertical tidal compressive stress is advantage triggering period in early period,based on the high reservoir water level.The six earthquakes with MS≥4.2 after 1980 in later period occurred at the moment of the same direction of vertical tidal force and water level perturbation of force field,which shows that the seismic area is in critical unsteady state and the variation of reservoir water level and vertical tidal compressive stress triggering earthquakes in together.Six earthquakes were reviewed by using modulation ration based on tensile or compressive vertical tidal force.The modulation ration was confirmed of a certain significance for the short-term and imminent prediction.
引文
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