地下储层表征的不确定性及科学思维方法
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摘要
由于地质的复杂性和资料的不完备性,地下储层表现为"灰箱"系统,表征结果存在着不确定性。基于系统论和科学哲学的方法,探讨了地下储层表征中不确定性的成因类型、内涵及解决方案,并论述了地下储层表征过程中所应重视的科学思维方法。地下储层表征中存在两类基本的不确定性类型:①随机不确定性,主要由局部预测整体(如应用多井资料进行井间储层预测)以及第二性资料的非完全映射(如应用地震资料预测储层)所致;②模糊不确定性,主要由储层概念模式认知不足所致。为了使表征结果逼近地质实际,除了正确应用和创新相关理论和方法外,需要具备科学的表征理念和思维,包括总体把握、分级约束,多科一体、地质为核,发散求索、聚焦论证,辩证思维、综合分析;同时,应正确理解和处理宏观与微观、绝对与相对、静态与动态、映射与多解、局部与整体、模糊与置信、确定与随机、个别与一般、复杂与简约、手工与自动等矛盾统一体的关系。
Due to the complexity of geology and the incompleteness of the data,subsurface reservoirs are shown as grey box systems.Thus,great uncertainty exists in the reservoir characterization.The genetic types,the essence of the uncertainty and the possible solutions for uncertainty reduction were discussed based on the system theory and philosophy of science.The scientific methodology that should be implemented in the reservoir characterization procedure was also addressed.Uncertainties were grouped into two types according to their fundamental difference.One was random uncertainty that was caused by predicting the entirety from the fraction,such as predicting the inter-well reservoir from well data.Another reason of random uncertainty was non-complete mapping from secondary data such as predicting the reservoir from seismic data.The second type of uncertainty was named as fuzzy uncertainty that was caused by insufficient cognition of the reservoir conceptual model.In order to make the reservoir model more close to the geological reality,the correctly implementation of the new related theories and methods should be guided by a more scientific characterization philosophy.Some of the philosophical characterization principles were proposed.The characterization procedure should be perceived in an overall view,and the geological analysis should be hierarchically constrained.The characterization would integrate multiple disciplines while it was geologically focused.The geologists should follow a divergent seeking and reasoning as well as a point-focused demonstration.The investigation will comply with dialectical thinking and comprehensive analysis.Meanwhile,some relationships in contradictory entities,such as macroform and microform,certainty and ambiguity,static and dynamic,mapping and divergence,fraction and entirety,fuzzy and concrete,certainty and randomness,specialty and generalization,complexity and simplicity,hand-operation and automation,should be correctly understood and handled competently and successfully.
Due to the complexity of geology and the incompleteness of the data,subsurface reservoirs are shown as grey box systems.Thus,great uncertainty exists in the reservoir characterization.The genetic types,the essence of the uncertainty and the possible solutions for uncertainty reduction were discussed based on the system theory and philosophy of science.The scientific methodology that should be implemented in the reservoir characterization procedure was also addressed.Uncertainties were grouped into two types according to their fundamental difference.One was random uncertainty that was caused by predicting the entirety from the fraction,such as predicting the inter-well reservoir from well data.Another reason of random uncertainty was non-complete mapping from secondary data such as predicting the reservoir from seismic data.The second type of uncertainty was named as fuzzy uncertainty that was caused by insufficient cognition of the reservoir conceptual model.In order to make the reservoir model more close to the geological reality,the correctly implementation of the new related theories and methods should be guided by a more scientific characterization philosophy.Some of the philosophical characterization principles were proposed.The characterization procedure should be perceived in an overall view,and the geological analysis should be hierarchically constrained.The characterization would integrate multiple disciplines while it was geologically focused.The geologists should follow a divergent seeking and reasoning as well as a point-focused demonstration.The investigation will comply with dialectical thinking and comprehensive analysis.Meanwhile,some relationships in contradictory entities,such as macroform and microform,certainty and ambiguity,static and dynamic,mapping and divergence,fraction and entirety,fuzzy and concrete,certainty and randomness,specialty and generalization,complexity and simplicity,hand-operation and automation,should be correctly understood and handled competently and successfully.
引文
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[7]於崇文.揭示地质现象的本质与核心——地质作用与时空结构[J].地学前缘,2000,7(1):2-12.YU Chong-wen.Revealing the Essence and Crux ofGeological Phenomena—Geological Processes and Spatio-temporal Structures[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2000,7(1):2-12.
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[14]LEEDER M R.Fluviatile Fining-upwards Cycles andthe Magnitude of Palaeochannels[J].Geological Ma-gazine,1973,110(3):265-276.
[15]LORENZ J C,HEINZE D M,CLARK J A,et al.Deter-mination of Width of Meander-belt Sandstone Reservoirsfrom Vertical Downhole Data,Mesaverde Group,Piceance Creek Basin,Colorado[J].AAPG Bulletin,1985,69(5):710-721.
[16]FIELDING C R,CRANE R C.An Application of Statis-tical Modeling to the Prediction of Hydrocarbon Re-covery Factors in Fluvial Reservoir Sequences[C]∥ETHRIDGE F G,FLORES R M,HARVEY M D.Recent Development in Fluvial Sedimentology.Tulsa:SEPM Special Publications,1987.
[17]MIALL A D.The Geology of Fluvial Deposits[M].Berlin:Springer-Verlag,1996.
[18]GIBLING M R.Width and Thickness of Fluvial ChannelBodies and Valley Fills in the Geological Record:aLiterature Compilation and Classification[J].Journalof Sedimentary Research,2006,76(5):731-770.
[19]钱宁,张仁,周志德.河床演变学[M].北京:科学出版社,1987.QIAN Ning,ZHANG Ren,ZHOU Zhi-de.FluvialProcess[M].Beijing:Science Press,1987.
[20]李思田,焦养泉,付清平.鄂尔多斯盆地延安组三角洲砂体内部构成及非均质性研究[C]∥裘亦楠.中国油气储层研究论文集.北京:石油工业出版社,1993:30-35.LI Si-tian,JIAO Yang-quan,FU Qing-ping.Study onDelta Sand Bodys Internal Architecture and Hetero-geneity of Yanan Formation in Ordos Basin[C]∥QIU Yi-nan.Symposium for Studies on ChinesePetroleum Reservoir.Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1993:30-35.
[21]刘站立,焦养泉.曲流河成因相构成及其空间配置关系——鄂尔多斯盆地中生代露头沉积学地质考察[J].大庆石油地质与开发,1996,15(3):6-9.LIU Zhan-li,JIAO Yang-quan.Composition of Faciesof Meandering River Origin and Relationship of ItsSpatial Configuration—an On-the-spot Geologic In-vestigation on Sedimentology of Mesozoic Outcrop inOrdos Basin[J].Petroleum Geology and OilfieldDevelopment in Daqing,1996,15(3):6-9.
[22]裘怿楠,薛叔浩,应凤祥.中国陆相油气储集层[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1997.QIU Yi-nan,XUE Shu-hao,YING Feng-xiang.Petro-leum Reservoirs in Continental Basins,China[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1997.
[23]马世忠,杨清彦.曲流点坝沉积模式、三维构形及其非均质模型[J].沉积学报,2000,18(2):241-247.MA Shi-zhong,YANG Qing-yan.The DepositionalModel,3D Architecture and Heterogeneous Model ofPoint Bar in Meandering Channels[J].Acta Sedimen-tologica Sinica,2000,18(2):241-247.
[24]穆龙新,贾爱林,陈亮,等.储层精细研究方法:国内外露头储层和现代沉积及精细地质建模研究[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2000.MU Long-xin,JIA Ai-lin,CHEN Liang,et al.Methodsof Detailed Study on Reservoirs:Study on ReservoirOutcrop,Modern Sedimentation and Fine GeologicalModeling over the World[M].Beijing:PetroleumIndustry Press,2000.
[25]张昌民,徐龙,林克湘,等.青海油砂山油田第68层分流河道砂体解剖学[J].沉积学报,1996,14(4):70-76.ZHANG Chang-min,XU Long,LIN Ke-xiang,et al.Anatomy of Distributary Channel Sand,the No.68Sandbody of Youshashan,Western Qinghai[J].ActaSedimentologica Sinica,1996,14(4):70-76.
[26]付国民,李永军,石京平.樊家川油田河流相储层砂体非均质模型及剩余油分布[J].长安大学学报:地球科学版,2003,25(1):15-19.FU Guo-min,LI Yong-jun,SHI Jing-ping.The Modelof the Anisotropy of the Fluvial Facies Reservoir SandBody and the Distribution of the Residual Oil[J].Journalof Changan University:Earth Science Edition,2003,25(1):15-19.
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