基于遗传模糊层次分析法的水库诱发地震综合风险评价指标体系筛选模型
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摘要
水库诱发地震综合风险评价指标体系反映了水库诱发地震风险因子与研究地区整个社会经济系统的复杂交互作用关系,建立该指标体系需要地震学、社会学、经济学、管理学和工程学的综合集成研究。根据水库诱发地震与所在地区社会经济系统交互作用的机理分析,提出了由危险性、易损性、减灾能力、灾情4个子系统组成水库诱发地震综合风险系统。由这些子系统及其二级评价指标组成水库诱发地震综合风险评价的初步指标体系,再利用专家咨询信息,采用遗传模糊层次分析法筛选该初步指标体系,从而建立了水库诱发地震综合风险评价指标体系。该指标体系可用于水库诱发地震综合风险评价,为构建水库诱发地震综合风险预警系统提供了重要的技术基础。
Integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity reflects the complex interaction relationship between reservoir induced seismicity risk factors and the socioeconomic system of reservoir region.Establishing the index system needs comprehensive and integrated studies of seismology,sociology,economics,management and engineering science.An integrated risk system of reservoir induced seismicity consisting of four subsystems of hazard,vulnerability,disaster-reduction capability and disaster condition is presented according to the mechanism analysis of interaction relationship between reservoir induced seismicity and the socioeconomic system of reservoir region.The four subsystems and their second-class indexes make up the preliminary integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity.The preliminary index system is filtrated with expert advisory information and accelerating genetic algorithm based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,and then the final integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity is established,which can be applied to the integrated risk assessment of reservoir induced seismicity and can provide the supporting technology for establishing early warning system of integrated risk of reservoir induced seismicity.
Integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity reflects the complex interaction relationship between reservoir induced seismicity risk factors and the socioeconomic system of reservoir region.Establishing the index system needs comprehensive and integrated studies of seismology,sociology,economics,management and engineering science.An integrated risk system of reservoir induced seismicity consisting of four subsystems of hazard,vulnerability,disaster-reduction capability and disaster condition is presented according to the mechanism analysis of interaction relationship between reservoir induced seismicity and the socioeconomic system of reservoir region.The four subsystems and their second-class indexes make up the preliminary integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity.The preliminary index system is filtrated with expert advisory information and accelerating genetic algorithm based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,and then the final integrated risk assessment index system of reservoir induced seismicity is established,which can be applied to the integrated risk assessment of reservoir induced seismicity and can provide the supporting technology for establishing early warning system of integrated risk of reservoir induced seismicity.
引文
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Gupa HK.1992.Roservoir-Indueed Earthquakes[M].Elsevier Science Publisher,Netherlands.
Tullos D.2009.Assessing the influence of environmental impact assessments on science and policy:An analysis of theThree Gorges Project[J].Journal of Environmental Management,(90):S208—S223.
ZOU L L,WEI Y M.2009.Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia[J].Nature Hazards,48(1):167—189.
陈晓利,王喆,马文涛.2009.水库诱发地震震例及背景数据库的设计与研制[J].地震地质,3l(4):785—791.CHEN Xiao-li,WANG Zhe,MA Wen-tao.2009.Design of a data base management system of reservoir induced earth-quakes and related geological data[J].Seismology and Geology,3l(4):785—791(in Chinese).
程晓陶,吴玉成,王艳艳,等.2004.洪水管理新理念与防洪安全保障体系的研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.CHENG Xiao-tao,WU Yu-cheng,Wang Yan-yan,et al.2004.New Thinking of Flood Management and Study of FloodControl Security and Safeguard System[M].China Water Power Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
丁香,王晓青,王龙,等.2009.水库地震预测与风险评估系统研制[J].地震地质,3l(4):778—784.DING Xiang,WANG Xiao-qing,WANG Long,et al.2009.The development of reservoir induced seismicity and risk as-sessment system[J].Seismology and Geology,3l(4):778—784(in Chinese).
金菊良,洪天求,王文圣.2007.基于熵和FAHP的水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价模型[J].水力发电学报,26(4):22—28.JIN Ju-liang,HONG Tian-qiu,WANG Wen-sheng.2007.Entropy and FAHP based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mod-el of water resources sustaining utilization[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,26(4):22—28(in Chi-nese).
金菊良,王文圣,洪天求,等.2006.流域水安全智能评价方法的理论基础探讨[J].水利学报,37(8):918—925.JIN Ju-liang,WANG Wen-sheng,HONG Tian-qiu,et al.2006.Theoretical basis of intelligent evaluation methods of wa-tershed water security[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,37(8):918—925(in Chinese).
金菊良,魏一鸣.2008.复杂系统广义智能评价方法与应用[M].北京:科学出版社.JIN Ju-liang,WEI Yi-ming.2008.Generalized Intelligent Assessment Methods for Complex Systems and Applications[M].Science Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
金菊良,杨晓华,丁晶.2001.标准遗传算法的改进方案:加速遗传算法[J].系统工程理论与实践,21(4):8—13.JIN Ju-liang,YANG Xiao-hua,DING Jing.2001.An improved simple genetic algorithm:Accelerating genetic algorithm[J].Systems Engineering Theory&Practice,21(4):8—13(in Chinese).
毛玉平,艾永平,邵德盛,等.2007.水库地震安全问题分析[J].地震研究,30(3):253—259.MAO Yu-ping,Al Yong-ping,SHAO De-sheng,et al.2007.Study on seismic safety of reservoir[J].Journal of Seismo-logical Researeh,30(3):253—259(in Chinese).
王秋月,朱守彪.2009.水库诱发地震讨论及其动力学机制分析[A].见:中国地震局地壳应力研究所编.地壳构造与地壳应力文集(21):73—84.WANG Qiu-yue,ZHU Shou-biao.2009.Discussion of reservoir induced seismicity and its dynamic mechanism analysis[A].In:lnstitute of Crustal Dynamics,China Seismological Bureau(ed).Collection of Crustal Structure andStress(21):73—84(in Chinese).
魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.2002.洪水灾害风险管理理论[M].北京:科学出版社.WEI Yi-ming,JIN Ju-liang,YANG Cun-jian,et al.2002.Risk Management Theory of Flood Disaster[M].SciencePress,Beijing(in Chinese).
易立新,车用太,王广才.2003.水库诱发地震研究的历史、现状与发展趋势[J].华南地震,23(1):28—37.YI Li-xin,CHE Yong-tai,WANG Guang-cai.2003.Retrospection and prospect of the research on reservoir inducedseismicity[J].South China Journal of Seismology,23(1):28—37(in Chinese).
Gupa HK.1992.Roservoir-Indueed Earthquakes[M].Elsevier Science Publisher,Netherlands.
Tullos D.2009.Assessing the influence of environmental impact assessments on science and policy:An analysis of theThree Gorges Project[J].Journal of Environmental Management,(90):S208—S223.
ZOU L L,WEI Y M.2009.Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia[J].Nature Hazards,48(1):167—189.
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