新疆地下流体源兆、场兆、大震远兆特征的统计与分析
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摘要
以20多年来新疆地区的18个地下流体监测点的资料为基础,沿着“异常与震中”这一主线,对新疆地区的16次5级地震、4次7级以上地震及1个6级强震群的前兆异常特征进行了定量的统计与分析。结果表明,源、场、远兆异常有如下特征:异常空间展布不均,源兆空间内异常监测点展布"密集"、异常比例可达90%;而场兆空间展布“稀疏”、“分散”,异常比例一般在45%~53%;而远兆则是更加“稀疏”和“零星”,异常比例统计为25%。异常起始时间不同,源兆异常时间以中期为主;中强震场兆异常时间以中短期、特别是短期为主;强震场兆以中期异常为主;而强震远兆则也以中期异常为主。异常形态不同,源兆中期异常及强震场兆中期异常一般是趋势性大幅度升高变化为主,且以化学测项为多,油气探井以井喷形式予以表现;而中强震场兆异常,一般表现为幅度明显的短期内的负异常、脉冲突跳、短期内的高值上升、阶变及年变化规律被打破等;强震远兆特征则基本上表现为少数测点、测项的大幅度中期异常及个别测项的临震大幅度突跳现象,油气探井则也以剧烈井喷形式予以表现。
Based on the data recorded by 18 ground fluid monitoring stations in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region for 20 years,along the main line of anomalies and earthquake epicenters,the statistics and analysis on characteristics of precursory anomalies of 16 M5 earthquakes,4 earthquakes with M>7 and 1 M6 strong earthquake swarm are conducted.The results show that the focal,field and remote precursory anomalies are of the following characteristics:The spatial distribution of anomalies is inhomogeneous,the distribution of anomalous monitoring stations of focal precursors is concentrated,and the anomaly ratio can reach 90%;but the spatial distribution of field precursors is sparse,and the anomaly ratio is about 45%~53%;the spatial distribution of remote precursors is sparser,the anomaly ratio is 25%.Usually,the beginning time is different,most of anomaly time of focal precursors is medium-term;most of anomaly time of moderately strong earthquakes field precursors is medium-short term,particularly short-term;most of anomaly time of strong earthquake′s field precursors is medium-term;and most of anomaly time of strong earthquake's remote precursors is medium-term too.The anomaly patterns are different,most of medium-term anomalies of focal precursors and strong earthquake′s field precursors show the step-like rising tendency,and most are chemical observational items,the oil-gas wells show blowing.However,the anomalies of moderately strong earthquake′s field precursors are short-term,negative ones with obvious amplitude,and show pulse bound,high value rising within short time,step-like change,and the regularity of yearly variation is broken.The remote precursory characteristics of strong earthquakes are medium-term anomalies for few observational stations and observational items;the suddenly ump phenomenon of several observational items exists during impending earthquake,the oil-gas wells also show blowing.
Based on the data recorded by 18 ground fluid monitoring stations in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region for 20 years,along the main line of anomalies and earthquake epicenters,the statistics and analysis on characteristics of precursory anomalies of 16 M5 earthquakes,4 earthquakes with M>7 and 1 M6 strong earthquake swarm are conducted.The results show that the focal,field and remote precursory anomalies are of the following characteristics:The spatial distribution of anomalies is inhomogeneous,the distribution of anomalous monitoring stations of focal precursors is concentrated,and the anomaly ratio can reach 90%;but the spatial distribution of field precursors is sparse,and the anomaly ratio is about 45%~53%;the spatial distribution of remote precursors is sparser,the anomaly ratio is 25%.Usually,the beginning time is different,most of anomaly time of focal precursors is medium-term;most of anomaly time of moderately strong earthquakes field precursors is medium-short term,particularly short-term;most of anomaly time of strong earthquake′s field precursors is medium-term;and most of anomaly time of strong earthquake's remote precursors is medium-term too.The anomaly patterns are different,most of medium-term anomalies of focal precursors and strong earthquake′s field precursors show the step-like rising tendency,and most are chemical observational items,the oil-gas wells show blowing.However,the anomalies of moderately strong earthquake′s field precursors are short-term,negative ones with obvious amplitude,and show pulse bound,high value rising within short time,step-like change,and the regularity of yearly variation is broken.The remote precursory characteristics of strong earthquakes are medium-term anomalies for few observational stations and observational items;the suddenly ump phenomenon of several observational items exists during impending earthquake,the oil-gas wells also show blowing.
引文
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[14]张学敏,蓝陵,李艳萍.新疆乌鲁木齐地区多年水氡观测资料的统计与分析[J].内陆地震,2003,17(3):259-267.
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[16]陈玲.新20号井井水位动态分析及地震预测效能评价[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):150-156.
[17]高小其,许秋龙,李艳萍,等.新疆轮台两次地震前地下流体前兆异常的对比分析[J].华北地震科学,2001,(3):56-62.
[18]高小其,许秋龙.石河子5.4级地震前北天山地区地下流体前兆异常的分析[J].内陆地震,2004,18(1):64-71.
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[20]高小其,许秋龙,李新勇,等.新疆05油气井震前(后)井喷浅议[J].华南地震,2001,21(3):48-52.
[21]高小其,崔勇,李艳萍.天山地区地下流体强震远场效应的研究[J].高原地震,2000,12(4):25-32.
[22]高小其,许秋龙,王道,等.地下流体中强震源兆、场兆、强震远兆映震特征及其映震机理的研究[J].地震,2002,22(3):81-88.
[23]高小其,李艳萍,许秋龙,等.伽师地震中北天山地区水化学的远场效应的研究[J].山西地震,2000,(1):34-39.
[24]崔勇,迪里夏提.克优木.乌鲁木齐10号泉溶解气甲烷的3次长趋势异常变化的分析[J].内陆地震,2004,18(4):371-375.
[25]王道,卢静芳,陈玲.西藏7.5级地震在乌鲁木齐地区地下水中的远场效应[J].内陆地震,1999,13(1):93-95.
[26]高小其,许秋龙,王道.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前后地下流体远场效应的研究[J].高原地震,2002,14(3):12-20.
[27]王世芹,刘丽芳,付虹.云南地区地下水动态的地震源兆与场兆特征分析[J].地震研究,2004,(2):126-132.
[2]车用太,鱼金于.地下流体的源兆、场兆、远兆及其在地震预报中的意义[J].地震,1997,17(3):283-288.
[3]郭增建.震源物理[M].北京:地震出版社,1979.102-103.
[4]鱼金子,车用太,王广才.地震前兆台网监测能力评估方法及其在首都圈地区的试用[J].地震,2000,20(4):7-11.
[5]王道,张洪斌,许秋龙,等.新疆沙湾5.2级地震地下流体前兆异常特征的分析[J].地震,1997,17(3):297-303.
[6]高小其,王道,许秋龙.硫化物的映震特征及其映震机理的研究[J].地震,2001,21(l):91-97.
[7]高小其,许秋龙,蓝陵,等.新04、10号井水位及新10号泉流量映震特征的对比分析[J].内陆地震,2002,16(4):346-354.
[8]李艳萍,高小其.电导率的测定及其在地震监测和水质分析中的应用[J].内陆地震,2001,15(1):88-92.
[9]高小其,蓝陵,许秋龙,等.乌鲁木齐10号泉氦气含量变化的映震特征[J].四川地震,2002,(3):27-31.
[10]高小其,李新勇,李艳萍,等.乌鲁木齐10号泉地下水中溶解气甲烷的映震特征的研究[J].华南地震,2001,21(1):14-18.
[11]高小其,许秋龙,李艳萍,等.乌鲁木齐10号泉流量的映震特征及其映震机理[J].地震研究,2001,(3):233-237.
[12]高小其,迪里夏提.乌鲁木齐地区地下水中氟离子映震特征的研究[J].地震学刊,2002,22(1):5-11.
[13]高小其,许秋龙,杨马陵.呼图壁21号井动水位震兆异常特征的研究[J].华南地震,2004,24(2):28-35.
[14]张学敏,蓝陵,李艳萍.新疆乌鲁木齐地区多年水氡观测资料的统计与分析[J].内陆地震,2003,17(3):259-267.
[15]高小其,许秋龙.乌鲁木齐10号泉水汞短临前兆特征探讨[J].内陆地震,1999,13(1):72-77.
[16]陈玲.新20号井井水位动态分析及地震预测效能评价[J].内陆地震,2003,17(2):150-156.
[17]高小其,许秋龙,李艳萍,等.新疆轮台两次地震前地下流体前兆异常的对比分析[J].华北地震科学,2001,(3):56-62.
[18]高小其,许秋龙.石河子5.4级地震前北天山地区地下流体前兆异常的分析[J].内陆地震,2004,18(1):64-71.
[19]许秋龙,李艳萍,李新勇.2002~2003年新疆地下流体前兆异常跟踪分析[J].内陆地震,2004,18(1):56-63.
[20]高小其,许秋龙,李新勇,等.新疆05油气井震前(后)井喷浅议[J].华南地震,2001,21(3):48-52.
[21]高小其,崔勇,李艳萍.天山地区地下流体强震远场效应的研究[J].高原地震,2000,12(4):25-32.
[22]高小其,许秋龙,王道,等.地下流体中强震源兆、场兆、强震远兆映震特征及其映震机理的研究[J].地震,2002,22(3):81-88.
[23]高小其,李艳萍,许秋龙,等.伽师地震中北天山地区水化学的远场效应的研究[J].山西地震,2000,(1):34-39.
[24]崔勇,迪里夏提.克优木.乌鲁木齐10号泉溶解气甲烷的3次长趋势异常变化的分析[J].内陆地震,2004,18(4):371-375.
[25]王道,卢静芳,陈玲.西藏7.5级地震在乌鲁木齐地区地下水中的远场效应[J].内陆地震,1999,13(1):93-95.
[26]高小其,许秋龙,王道.昆仑山口西8.1级地震前后地下流体远场效应的研究[J].高原地震,2002,14(3):12-20.
[27]王世芹,刘丽芳,付虹.云南地区地下水动态的地震源兆与场兆特征分析[J].地震研究,2004,(2):126-132.
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