震区公路崩塌危险度评价模型研究
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摘要
以"5.12"地震重灾县———青川县(青川生命线道路沿线)作为研究区域,选取产生崩塌及影响其稳定性的9个因素为评价因子,将崩塌危险度分为无危险、低度危险、中度危险和高度危险4个等级,建立了基于改进灰色聚类法的崩塌危险度评价模型。应用该模型对青川生命线道路沿线崩塌灾害点进行评价,将此评价结果与经典灰色聚类法所得的评价结果进行对比。研究结果表明,基于改进灰色聚类法的崩塌危险度评价模型所得的评价结果比经典灰色聚类法所得的评级结果更接近于现场专家勘查结果。由此可见,采用这种基于改进灰色聚类法的评价模型对崩塌危险度进行快速、科学、有效地评价是切实可行的。
We take Qingchuan county(Qingchuan Line-road)— a hard hit area in the "5.12" Earthquake as the research area.Nine elements that contribute the collapse and affect its stability have been selected as evaluation factors.The collapse risk levels have been divided into four levels as non-hazardous,low dangerous,moderate risk and high risk.The evaluation model of highway collapse risk based on the improved grey clustering method has been established.By applying this model,we evaluate the geological disaster area along Qingchuan line-road.With the comparison between this evaluation results and the classical grey clustering method,we can see that the results got from improved grey clustering model to evaluate the collapse are much closer to experts's site investigation findings than classical grey clustering method.Therefore,it is practical and feasible to have a quick,scientific and efficient evaluation for the collapse risk by using this improved grey clustering evaluation model.
We take Qingchuan county(Qingchuan Line-road)— a hard hit area in the "5.12" Earthquake as the research area.Nine elements that contribute the collapse and affect its stability have been selected as evaluation factors.The collapse risk levels have been divided into four levels as non-hazardous,low dangerous,moderate risk and high risk.The evaluation model of highway collapse risk based on the improved grey clustering method has been established.By applying this model,we evaluate the geological disaster area along Qingchuan line-road.With the comparison between this evaluation results and the classical grey clustering method,we can see that the results got from improved grey clustering model to evaluate the collapse are much closer to experts's site investigation findings than classical grey clustering method.Therefore,it is practical and feasible to have a quick,scientific and efficient evaluation for the collapse risk by using this improved grey clustering evaluation model.
引文
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[2]薛东剑,何政伟,陶舒,等.“5.12”震后区域地质灾害危险性评价研究——以青川、平武县为例[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(3):311-318.
[3]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[4]罗冠枝.活动断裂区高速公路地质灾害危险性评价与综合区划研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2009.33-41.
[5]李阔,杨景,唐川.地质灾害危险性评价研究——以四川省青川县为例[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(2):54-57.
[6]刘根亮,李渝生,陈佳,等.汶川地震区青川县乔庄镇地震断裂问题[J].山地学报,2009,27(4)496-500.
[7]吴亚子,杨敏.山区公路崩塌稳定度评价模型研究[J].中外公路,2011,31(3):31-33
[8]许强.汶川大地震诱发地质灾害主要类型与特征研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2009,20(2):86-93.
[9]袁嘉祖.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,1991:222-227.
[10]柴春阳,巫锡勇,魏成武.灰色聚类法在泥石流类型判别中的应用[J].路基工程,2008(6):146-147.
[11]张丽,李广杰,周志广,等.基于灰色聚类的区域地质灾害危险性分区评价[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):164-168.
[12]王哲,易发成.基于层次分析法的绵阳市地质灾害易发性评价[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1):14-23.
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