南海北缘海啸波高对潜在海啸源震级偏差的敏感性
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摘要
本文假设马尼拉海沟北段为潜在海啸源,基于中国地震台网对马尼拉海沟地区震级测定偏差,采用COMCOT(Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model)海啸数值模型,模拟南海海啸波传播。选取南海北缘3个特定地点,其中两个位于华南近海区域,另一个位于台湾岛南端近海区域,此外还在临近马尼拉海沟北段的深海地区选取了1个特定地点。分析这些特定地点最大海啸波以及最大海啸波到时对于震级测定偏差的敏感性。结果表明:马尼拉海沟北段地震如触发海啸,华南近海区域以及台湾岛南部近海区域最大海啸波振幅对震级偏差敏感,但最大海啸波振幅到时对于震级测定偏差不敏感;振幅最大的海啸波,二十几分钟即可波及台湾岛南端近岸区域,大约1小时后波及大陆华南近海北部区域。
The authors imagine the northern segment of the Manila Trench as an earthquake generated tsunami source. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model is used to simulate the propagation of tsunami wave in the South China Sea. The sensitivity analysis for the effects of the deviations in earthquake magnitude on the maximum tsunami wave amplitudes and its arrival time at several specific locations in the northern area of the South China Sea is accomplished. The 4 locations are picked out: west to and near the north segment of the Manila Trench, an offshore area near the south end of Taiwan and two offshore areas southeast to and near Chinese Mainland. The sensitivity analysis shows that the maximum amplitude of tsunami wave is sensitive to the deviations in earthquake magnitude, whereas its arrival time is not. The simulating results of tsunami wave propagation in the South China Sea shows that it takes 24 minutes to reach the location in offshore area near the south end of Taiwan and about 60 minutes to reach offshore areas near Chinese Mainland for the maximum amplitude of tsunami.
The authors imagine the northern segment of the Manila Trench as an earthquake generated tsunami source. The Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model is used to simulate the propagation of tsunami wave in the South China Sea. The sensitivity analysis for the effects of the deviations in earthquake magnitude on the maximum tsunami wave amplitudes and its arrival time at several specific locations in the northern area of the South China Sea is accomplished. The 4 locations are picked out: west to and near the north segment of the Manila Trench, an offshore area near the south end of Taiwan and two offshore areas southeast to and near Chinese Mainland. The sensitivity analysis shows that the maximum amplitude of tsunami wave is sensitive to the deviations in earthquake magnitude, whereas its arrival time is not. The simulating results of tsunami wave propagation in the South China Sea shows that it takes 24 minutes to reach the location in offshore area near the south end of Taiwan and about 60 minutes to reach offshore areas near Chinese Mainland for the maximum amplitude of tsunami.
引文
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Liu P.L-F,Wang Xiaoming,2007,http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.edu/pll-group/comoct-app.htm
任枭、刘瑞峰译,陈运泰校,2006,一种快速测定大地震震级的方法,地震地磁观测与研究,27(1),107~110。
王晓青、吕金霞、丁香,2006,我国地震海啸危险性初步探讨,华南地震,1(26),76~80。
魏柏林、康英、陈玉桃等,2006,南海地震与海啸,华南地震,26(1):47~60。
叶琳、于福江、吴玮,2005,我国海啸灾害及预警现状与建议,海洋预报,22(增刊),148~157。
杨马陵,2005,广东省地震海啸危险分析与监测预警系统构想,华南地震,25(4),25~33。
杨马陵、魏柏林,2005,南海海域地震海啸潜在危险的探析,灾害学,20(3),41~47。
赵荣国、李卫平,1997,现今震级测定偏差,国际地震动态,(12),1~8。
赵荣国、李卫平,1998,从震级偏差看震级问题,国际地震动态,(4),10~16。
Saltelli A,Tarantola S,Campolongo F,et al,2004,Sensitivity Analysis in Practice,John Wiley&Sons,Ltd,42~49.
Gica E,Teng MH,ASCE M,Liu P L-F,et al,Vasily Titov,and Hongqiang Zhou,2007,Sensitivity Analysis of Source ParametersforEarthquake-Generated Distant Tsunamis,Journal of Waterway,Port,Coastal,and Ocean Engineering,133(6),429~441.
Liu P.L-F,Wang Xiaoming,2007,http://ceeserver.cee.cornell.edu/pll-group/comoct-app.htm
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