新疆天山地区中强地震前中小地震活动特征的定量研究
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摘要
应用地震活动统计量nβ定量分析了新疆天山地震带不同分区中小地震活动状态以及中强地震前中小地震活动速率的异常特征,并提取了中强震前nβ值的中期预测指标。结果表明,当nβ值满足各研究区的异常指标时,北天山和南天山东段1年左右可能发生5~6级地震;巴楚—阿图什和喀什—乌恰地区1年左右可能发生5.5~7.0级的地震。从发震时间来看,乌鲁木齐、乌苏—石河子和喀什—乌恰地区中强地震基本发生在βn值异常结束后;拜城—库车地区和巴楚—阿图什地区部分中强震发生在nβ值处于异常状态过程中。各研究区中强震前1年左右中小地震活动具有区域特征:乌鲁木齐地区呈现增强;乌苏—石河子地区和喀什—乌恰地区既有增强也有平静;巴楚—阿图什地区以平静为主;南天山东段和阿克苏—巴楚地区异常特征不明显。
The abnormal characters of seismic active state and rate for small-medium earthquakes before mederate-strong earthquakes in different regions of Tianshan seismic belt,in Xinjiang region,with the seismicity statistical parameter value βn are analyzed quantatively,and the middle-term prediction index of βn values before mederate-strong earthquake are refined.The result shows that when βn value is satisfied with abnormal index in different region,there may occur MS5~6 earthquake within about one year in the northern Tianshan mountain and the east part of southern Tianshan mountain;MS5.5~7.0 earthquake within about one year in the Bachu—Atushi region and Kashi—Wuqia region.In the aspect of earthquake occurring time,mederate-strong earthquakes in Urumqi,Wusu—Shihezi and Kashi—Wuqia region occur nearly after βn value anomaly ends;some mederate-strong earthquakes in Baichen—Kuche and Bachu—Atushi occur when βn value is in the state of anomaly.Small-medium earthquakes in different regions about one year before mederate-strong earthquake have regional character: small-medium earthquake activity increases in Urumqi region;increases and quiescent in the Wusu—Shihezi and Kashi—Wuqia region;quiescent in the Bachu—Atushi region;but are not obvious in the east of southern Tianshan and Akesu—Bachu region.
The abnormal characters of seismic active state and rate for small-medium earthquakes before mederate-strong earthquakes in different regions of Tianshan seismic belt,in Xinjiang region,with the seismicity statistical parameter value βn are analyzed quantatively,and the middle-term prediction index of βn values before mederate-strong earthquake are refined.The result shows that when βn value is satisfied with abnormal index in different region,there may occur MS5~6 earthquake within about one year in the northern Tianshan mountain and the east part of southern Tianshan mountain;MS5.5~7.0 earthquake within about one year in the Bachu—Atushi region and Kashi—Wuqia region.In the aspect of earthquake occurring time,mederate-strong earthquakes in Urumqi,Wusu—Shihezi and Kashi—Wuqia region occur nearly after βn value anomaly ends;some mederate-strong earthquakes in Baichen—Kuche and Bachu—Atushi occur when βn value is in the state of anomaly.Small-medium earthquakes in different regions about one year before mederate-strong earthquake have regional character: small-medium earthquake activity increases in Urumqi region;increases and quiescent in the Wusu—Shihezi and Kashi—Wuqia region;quiescent in the Bachu—Atushi region;but are not obvious in the east of southern Tianshan and Akesu—Bachu region.
引文
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[3]宋俊高,王炜,陆锦花.前兆性地震平静在中期预报中的定量研究[J].西北地震学报,1997,19(3):37-43.
[4]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985:86-94.
[5]沈繁銮,符干,袁锡文,等.华南中强震前区域地震活动增强平静特征[J].华南地震,2003,23(3):11-15.
[6]王化宇,殷志刚.晋北区中小地震活动与晋冀蒙交界区6级地震的关系[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(1):80-84.
[7]罗灼礼,李志雄,王伟君.地震活动"密集一平静"现象的混沌特性探讨[J].地震,2007,27(4):1-17.
[8]王林瑛,陈学忠,朱传镇,等.地震活动性总体参量Rt及其在地震预测中的应用研究[J].地震,2006,26(2):54-60.
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