大气扩散集合预报技术和确定性预报技术在日本福岛核事故全球扩散中的对比分析
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
将集合预报技术引入到大气扩散数值模拟中,这是提高大气扩散数值模拟能力的一种新的、有效的手段.2011年3月受日本东北部9.0级大地震影响,日本福岛第一核电站发生核泄漏事故.以此次核泄漏事故的全球扩散为研究对象,通过运用不同的大气扩散预报技术(集合预报和确定性预报),模拟了福岛核泄漏释放出来的放射性物质在全球的扩散过程,并利用监测资料对模拟结果进行了对比分析和评估.文中采用的集合预报技术共三种,分别为气象场扰动技术MET、湍流扰动技术TUR和基于大气扩散物理过程参数化方案的集合预报技术PHY.模拟结果显示:集合预报的扩散轨迹模拟技术能更好地模拟粒子随大气环流扩散的过程;此外,与MET和TUR相比,确定性预报和集合预报PHY模拟扩散范围偏小,扩散速度偏慢,且无法模拟出4月初日本福岛核放射物质向我国东部海域扩散的过程.这是因为MET和TUR技术核心是对平均速度和湍流速度进行扰动,这种三维扰动,会促使污染物向更远方向进行扩散,水平方向扩散连续也更符合监测情况;PHY主要是对扩散物理过程参数进行扰动,以垂直速度的扰动为主,造成扩散范围偏小、水平方向扩散不连续.此外,监测站点与模拟结果的时间序列对比分析结果表明:模拟结果均能较好反应浓度趋势演变,不过模拟浓度偏低,尤其是确定性预报和PHY试验;此外,通过与监测站点的比较得出:与PHY相比,MET和TUR在平均浓度和最大浓度出现概率上具有更大优势.本文的研究结果对于丰富大气扩散数值模拟研究,提高环境应急响应水平具有参考意义.
引文
任志杰,陈静,田华.2011.T213全球集合预报系统物理过程随机扰动方法研究.气象,37:1049–1059
    盛黎,周斌,孙明华,等.2013.日本福岛核事故对我国辐射环境影响的监测与分析.气象,39:1529–1538
    田华,邓国,胡江凯.2007.全球T213数值集合预报业务系统简介.见:中国气象学会2007年年会天气预报预警和影响评估技术分会场论文集
    王自发,庞成明,朱江,等.2008.大气环境数值模拟研究新进展.大气科学,32:987–995
    Albergel A D,Martin B,Strauss B,et al.1988.The Chernobyl accident:Modeling of dispersion over Europe of the radioactive plume andcomparison with air activity measurements.Atmos Environ,22:2431–2444
    Biegalski S R,Bowyer T W,Eslinger P W,et al.2011.Analysis of data from sensitive U.S.monitoring stations for the Fukushima Dai-ichinuclear reactor accident.J Environ Radioact,114:15–21
    Buizza R,Houtekamer P L,Toth Z,et al.2005.A comparison of the ECMWF,MSC,and NCEP global ensemble prediction system.MonWeather Rev,133:1076–1097
    Candille G,Cote C,Houtekamer P L,et al.2007.Verification of an ensemble prediction system against observations.Mon Weather Rev,135:2688–2699
    Challa V S,Indrcanti J,Baham J M,et al.2008.Sensitivity of atmospheric dispersion simulations by HYSPLIT to the meteorological predictionsfrom a meso-scale model.Environ Fluid Mech,8:367–387
    Chino M,Nakayama H,Nagai H,et al.2011.Preliminary estimation of release amounts of 131I and 137Cs accidentally discharged from theFukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant into atmosphere.J Nuclear Sci Tech,48:1129–1134
    Dabberdt W F,Miller E.2000.Uncertainty,ensembles and air quality dispersion modeling:Applications and challenges.Atmos Environ,34:4667–4673
    Draxler R R.2002.Verification of an ensemble dispersion calculation.J Appl Meteorol,42:308–317
    Draxler R R,Hess G D.1997.Description of the HYSPLIT_4 modeling system.NOAA Tech.Memo.ERL ARL-224,NOAA Air ResourcesLaboratory,Silver Spring,MD.24
    Draxler R R,Hess G D.1998.An overview of the HYSPLIT_4 modeling system of trajectories,dispersion,and deposition.Aust Meteor Mag,47:295–308
    Epstein E S.1969.Stochastic dynamic prediction.Tellus,21:939–759
    Evans R E,Harrison M S J,Graham R J,et al.2000.Joint medium-range ensemble from the Met.Office and ECMWF systems.Mon WeatherRev,128:3104–3127
    Galmarini S,Bianconi R,Bellasio,et al.2008.Forecasting the consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere fromensemble dispersion modelling.J Environ Radioact,57:203–219
    Graziani G,Mosca S,Klug W,1998a.Real-time long-range dispersion model evaluation of ETEX first release.EUR17754/EN.Office forOfficial Publications of the European Commission,Luxembourg
    Graziani G,Klug W,Galmarini G,et al.1998b.Realtime long-range dispersion model evaluation of ETEX second release.EUR 17755/EN.Office for Official Publications of the European Commission,Luxembourg
    Hanna S,Chang J C,Fernau M E.1998.Monte Carlo estimates of uncertainties in predictions by a photochemical grid model(UAM-IV)due touncertainties in put variables.Atmos Environ,32:3619–3628
    Katata G,Ota M,Terada H,et al.2012a.Atmospheric discharge and dispersion of radionuclides during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear PowerPlant accident.Part I:Source term estimation and local-scale atmospheric dispersion in early phase of the accident.J Environ Radioact,109:103–113
    Katata G,Terada H,Nagai H,et al.2012b.Numerical reconstruction of high dose rate zones due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plantaccident.J Environ Radioact,111:2–12
    Leith C E.1974.Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts.Mon Weather Rev,102:409–418
    Klug W,Graziani G,Grippa G,et al.1992.Evaluation of long-range atmospheric models using environmental radioactivity data from theChernobyl accident:ATMES Report.Amsterdam:Elsevier.366
    Lorenz E N,1963.Deterministic non-periodic flow.J Atmos Sci,20:130–141
    Molteni F,Palmer T N,Buizza R,et al.1996.The ECMWF ensemble prediction system methodology and verification.Q J R Meteorol Soc,122:73–121
    Terada H,Katata G,Chino M,et al.2012.Atmospheric discharge and dispersion of radionuclides during the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear PowerPlant accident,Part II:Verification of the source term and analysis of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion.J Environ Radioact,112:141–154
    Toth Z,Kalnay E.1993.Ensemble forecasting at NMC,the generation of perturbations.Bull Amer Meteor Soc,74:2317–2330
    Toth Z,Kalnay E.1997.Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method.Mon Weather Rev,125:3297–3319
    Yamaguchi,Munehiko,Ryota S,et al.2009.Typhoon ensemble prediction system developed at the Japan Meteorological Agency.Mon WeatherRev,137:2592–2604

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心