易门井静水位预报指标综合研究及运用
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摘要
地下流体的观测与研究,是捕捉地震前兆信息的主要方法之一,是做好地震监测预报的重要途径。对易门静水位十多年观测中的一些异常与地震作分析、探讨,从单项指标的分析到综合指标的研究运用,并在多年的预测预报实践中,筛选出对应率、概率较高的5个短临预报指标,其预报准确率为0.928,预报有效率为0.948,可靠率为0.938,通过双概率检验。在综合预报指标的前提下,采用"60点滑动法",给出定性、定量的综合判据,建立了以易门为圆心200 km内M≥5.0地震的综合指标预测方案。
The underground fluid observation and the research is one of the main approaches to capture earthquake precursor information.It is also an important way for earthquake monitoring and prediction.Based on the static water level in Yimen well for more than ten years,some anomalies and earthquake observation are analyzed and discussed.From the single index analysis to research comprehensive index,and in the years of forecast practice,the corresponding rate,high probability of five short forecast indexes are chosen which forecasting accuracy is 0.928,forecasting validity is 0.948,and reliability is 0.938.These indexes also pass through the dual probability test.On the premise of integrated forecast indexes,using 60 point sliding method,a qualitative and quantitative criterion is further developed and the comprehensive index forecasting plan for M≥5.0 earthquake in the 200 km circle centered as Yimen has been established.
The underground fluid observation and the research is one of the main approaches to capture earthquake precursor information.It is also an important way for earthquake monitoring and prediction.Based on the static water level in Yimen well for more than ten years,some anomalies and earthquake observation are analyzed and discussed.From the single index analysis to research comprehensive index,and in the years of forecast practice,the corresponding rate,high probability of five short forecast indexes are chosen which forecasting accuracy is 0.928,forecasting validity is 0.948,and reliability is 0.938.These indexes also pass through the dual probability test.On the premise of integrated forecast indexes,using 60 point sliding method,a qualitative and quantitative criterion is further developed and the comprehensive index forecasting plan for M≥5.0 earthquake in the 200 km circle centered as Yimen has been established.
引文
陈立德,付虹.地震预报基础与实践[M].北京:地震出版社,2003．
国家地震局科技监测司.地下流体观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:193-229．
陆明勇,牛安福,白长清,黄辅琼.地壳形变短临异常与地下水位短临异常关系及识别方法的初步研究[J].地震研究,200929(1) :13-20．
张立,唐采,王世芹,杨杰英.宁蒗6． 2姚安6． 5和永胜6． 0级地震前地下流体的短期变化[J].地震研究,2003,26(增刊)149-156．
杨芸霞,易门静水位与地震关系初探[R].地震通讯,2000,(2) :38-40．
国家地震局科技监测司.地下流体观测技术[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:193-229．
陆明勇,牛安福,白长清,黄辅琼.地壳形变短临异常与地下水位短临异常关系及识别方法的初步研究[J].地震研究,200929(1) :13-20．
张立,唐采,王世芹,杨杰英.宁蒗6． 2姚安6． 5和永胜6． 0级地震前地下流体的短期变化[J].地震研究,2003,26(增刊)149-156．
杨芸霞,易门静水位与地震关系初探[R].地震通讯,2000,(2) :38-40．
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