川南马边地区强震危险性分析
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摘要
根据最近34a的区域台网地震资料,利用地震活动性参数b值的空间分布,结合历史强震与现今地震活动背景,分析了川南马边地区主要断裂带的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险区域。研究结果表明:1)马边地区的b值空间分布存在明显的空间差异,反映了该区域不同断裂带与断裂段应力积累水平的差异;2)马边-盐津断裂带上存在3个尺度不等的异常低b值区,它们可能是该断裂带上的相对高应力区(或凹凸体),其中位于马边北、沐川西部利店镇附近的凹凸体与位于该断裂带南端盐津附近的凹凸体可能是马边地区未来发生大地震的危险场所,而位于绥江南的小尺度凹凸体有可能是潜在强震的发生地点;3)存在于龙泉山断裂带西南段的凹凸体将是未来发生中强地震的场所;4)金口河-美姑断裂上位于汉源县皇木镇与峨眉山市龙池镇之间的凹凸体存在发生中强地震的可能性。
Based on seismic data of the regional network of the last 34 years,we have analyzed current faulting behaviors of major fault zones in Mabian area,southern Sichuan,and preliminarily identified the risky fault-segments on which potential strong and large earthquakes may occur in future,with the method combining the spatial distribution of b-values with activity background of historical strong earthquakes and current seismicity.Our results mainly show:(1)The spatial distribution of b values displays significant heterogeneity in the study area,which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress level along various fault zones and segments in the area;(2)Three anomalously low b-value areas with different sizes exist on Mabian-Yanjin Fault zone,these anomalies can be identified as asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels,in which,two asperities,located at north of Mabian county and Lidian town in western Muchuan county,and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone,respectively,may be the potential seismogenic sources of large earthquakes in Mabian area in the near future,and the third asperity with a small size located at southern Suijiang may be the potential strong-earthquake source;(3)An asperity at south-western segment of Longquanshan Fault may be the site of potential moderate to strong earthquakes;and(4)the asperity on the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu Fault has potential for moderate to strong earthquakes.
Based on seismic data of the regional network of the last 34 years,we have analyzed current faulting behaviors of major fault zones in Mabian area,southern Sichuan,and preliminarily identified the risky fault-segments on which potential strong and large earthquakes may occur in future,with the method combining the spatial distribution of b-values with activity background of historical strong earthquakes and current seismicity.Our results mainly show:(1)The spatial distribution of b values displays significant heterogeneity in the study area,which reflects the spatial difference of cumulative stress level along various fault zones and segments in the area;(2)Three anomalously low b-value areas with different sizes exist on Mabian-Yanjin Fault zone,these anomalies can be identified as asperities under relatively high cumulated stress levels,in which,two asperities,located at north of Mabian county and Lidian town in western Muchuan county,and near Yanjin at the south end of the fault zone,respectively,may be the potential seismogenic sources of large earthquakes in Mabian area in the near future,and the third asperity with a small size located at southern Suijiang may be the potential strong-earthquake source;(3)An asperity at south-western segment of Longquanshan Fault may be the site of potential moderate to strong earthquakes;and(4)the asperity on the segment between Huangmu town in Hanyuan county and Longchi town in Emeishan city on Jinkouhe-Meigu Fault has potential for moderate to strong earthquakes.
引文
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易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2004b.山西断陷带太原—临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,26(4):387—395.YI Gui-xi,WENXue-ze,XUXi-wei.2004b.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky seg-ments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,17(4):426—437.
易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.2008.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究[J].地球物理学报,51(6):1719—1725.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,SU You-jin.2008.Study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the eastern boundary ofthe Sichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block,China[J].Chinese J Geophys,51(6):1151—1158.
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与地震危险性[J].中国地震,22(2):117—125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,22(2):117—125(in Chinese).
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周荣军,黎小刚,黄祖治,等.2003.四川大凉山断裂带的晚第四纪平均滑动速率[J].地震地质,26(2):191—196.ZHOU Rong-jun,LI Xiao-gang,HUANG Zu-zhi,et al.2003.Average slip rate of Daliang Mountain Fault zone in Si-chuan in late Quaternary period[J].Seismology and Geology,26(2):191—196(in Chinese).
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国家地震局地球物理研究所,复旦大学历史地理研究所.1990b.中国历史地震图集(明时期)[M].北京:中国地图出版社.Institute of Geophysics of State Seismological Bureau and Institute of Historic Geography of Fudan University.1990b.TheAtlas of Historic Earthquakes of China(Volumes for Ming Dynasty)[M].SinoMaps Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
国家地震局地球物理研究所,复旦大学历史地理研究所.1990c.中国历史地震图集(清时期)[M].北京:中国地图出版社.Institute of Geophysics of State Seismological Bureau and Institute of Historic Geography of Fudan University.1990c.The Atlas of Historic Earthquakes of China(Volumes for Qing Dynasty)[M].SinoMaps Press,Beijing(in Chi-nese).
国家地震局震害防御司.1995.中国历史强震目录[M].北京:地震出版社.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,State Seismological Bureau.1995.The Catalogue of Chinese HistoricalStrong Earthquakes[M].Seismological Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
韩竹军,何玉林,安艳芬,等.2009.新生地震构造带:马边地震构造带最新构造变形样式的初步研究[J].地质学报,83(2):218—229.HAN Zhu-jun,HE Yu-lin,AN Yan-fen,et al.2009.A new seismotectonic belt:Features of the latest structural de-formation style in the Mabian seismotectonic zone[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,83(2):218—229(in Chinese).
黄祖智,唐荣昌.1995.龙泉山活动断裂带及其潜在地震能力的探讨[J].四川地震,(1):18—23.HUANG Zu-zhi,TANG Rong-chang.1995.The Longquanshan Fault zone and exploration of potential earthquake abili-ty[J].Sichuan Earthquake,(1):18—23(in Chinese).
李桂芳,程万正.1997.宜宾、沫川4次5级以上地震前后地震活动特征[J].四川地震,(3):50—57.LI Gui-fang,CHENG Wan-zheng.1997.Characteristics of seismicity before and after the4earthquakes ofM≥5.0inthe Yibin-Muchuan region[J].Sichuan Earthquake,(3):50—57(in Chinese).
宋方敏,李如成,徐锡伟.2002.四川大凉山断裂带古地震研究初步结果[J].地震地质,24(1):27—34.SONG Fang-min,LI Ru-cheng,XUXi-wei.2002.Preliminary results of the investigation of paleo-earthquakes along theDaliangshan Fault zone,Sichuan Province,China[J].Seismology and Geology,24(1):27—34(in Chinese).
唐荣昌,韩渭宾.1993.四川活动断裂与地震[M].北京:地震出版社.TANG Rong-chang,HAN Wei-bin.1993.Active faults and earthquakes in Sichuan Province[M].SeismologicalPress,Beijing(in Chinese).
王伟涛,贾东,李传友,等.2008.四川龙泉山断裂带变形特征及其活动性初步研究[J].地震地质,30(4):968—979.WANG Wei-tao,JIA Dong,LI Chuan-you,et al.2008.Preliminary investeigation on deformation characteristics and ac-tivity of Longquanshan Fault belt in Sichuan[J].Seismology and Geology,30(4):968—979(in Chinese).
闻学泽.2001.活动断裂的可变破裂尺度地震行为与级联破裂模式的应用[J].地震学报,23(4):380—390.WEN Xue-ze.2001.Earthquake behavior of variable rupture-scale on active faults and application of the cascade-rup-turing mode[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,14(4):404—416.
易桂喜,范军,闻学泽.2005.由现今地震活动分析鲜水河断裂带中—南段活动习性与强震危险地段[J].地震,25(1):58—66.YI Gui-xi,FAN Jun,WEN Xue-ze.2005.Study on faulting behavior and fault-segments for potential strong earthquakerisk along the central-southern segment of Xianshuihe Fault zone based on current seismicity[J].Earthquake,25(1):58—66(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽.2007.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题[J].地震地质,29(2):254—271.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze.2007.The application and limitation of multiple seismicity parameters to assessing currentfaulting behavior and seismic potential of active fault zones[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):254—271(inChinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004a.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,et al.2004a.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault zone from seismicity parameters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,17(3):322—333.
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2004b.山西断陷带太原—临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,26(4):387—395.YI Gui-xi,WENXue-ze,XUXi-wei.2004b.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky seg-ments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,17(4):426—437.
易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.2008.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究[J].地球物理学报,51(6):1719—1725.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,SU You-jin.2008.Study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the eastern boundary ofthe Sichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block,China[J].Chinese J Geophys,51(6):1151—1158.
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与地震危险性[J].中国地震,22(2):117—125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,22(2):117—125(in Chinese).
易桂喜,姚华建,朱介寿,等.2010.用Rayleigh面波方位各向异性研究中国大陆岩石圈形变特征[J].地球物理学报,53(2):256—268.YI Gui-xi,YAO Hua-jian,ZHU Jie-shou,et al.2010.Lithospheric deformation of continental China from Rayleigh-wave azimuthal anisotropy[J].Chinese J Geophys,53(2):256—268(in Chinese).
张诚,曹新玲,曲克信,等.1990.中国地震震源机制[M].北京:学术书刊出版社.ZHANG Cheng,CAO Xin-ling,QU Ke-xin,et al.1990.Earthquake Focal Mechanisms in China[M].AcademicBooks and Periodicals Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
张世民,聂高众,刘旭东,等.2005.荥经-马边-盐津逆冲构造带断裂运动组合及地震分段特征[J].地震地质,27(2):221—233.ZHANG Shi-min,NIE Gao-zhong,LIU Xu-dong,et al.2005.Kinematical and structural patterns of Yingjing-Mabian-Yanjin thrust fault zone,southeast of Tibetan Plateau,and its segmentation from earthquakes[J].Seismology andGeology,27(2):221—233(in Chinese).
中国地震局震害防御司.1999.中国近代地震目录[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,China Seismological Bureau.1999.The Catalogue of Modern Earth-quakes[M].Chinese Science and Technology Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
周荣军,黎小刚,黄祖治,等.2003.四川大凉山断裂带的晚第四纪平均滑动速率[J].地震地质,26(2):191—196.ZHOU Rong-jun,LI Xiao-gang,HUANG Zu-zhi,et al.2003.Average slip rate of Daliang Mountain Fault zone in Si-chuan in late Quaternary period[J].Seismology and Geology,26(2):191—196(in Chinese).
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