2008年汶川8.0级地震发生的历史与现今地震活动背景
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摘要
为了了解2008年5月12日四川汶川M_S8.0地震发生的地震活动背景,本文综合历史与现代地震资料,从南北地震带中段及其邻区的视野研究了汶川地震前1-2千年的强震活动性,以及震前20年的地震活动性背景.结果主要表明:(1)至少在2008年之前的1100-1700年中,龙门山断裂带未发生M≥7的地震,相对其南、北两侧的其他活动断裂带(或段)形成一个地震空区,2008年汶川M_S8.0地震发生在该空区中;(2)17世纪以来,在由龙门山断裂带大部分地区、川北岷江—虎牙断裂带以及甘南文县—武都断裂带组成的巴颜喀拉块体东边界上共发生了12次M=6.5-8.0地震,显示出一个已持续了近400年、逐渐加速的应变能释放过程,2008年汶川M_S 8.0地震属于该过程中两次巨大地震之一;(3)汶川地震前20年,龙门山断裂带中、南段不存在背景地震活动的平静,反而显示出比曾经发生过1879年M_S 8地震的一甘南文县—武都断裂带还略高的地震活动背景水平;(4)2008年汶川地震的强度远远超出龙门山断裂带的历史最大地震,说明仅基于数百年至一、两千年的历史地震记载,远不足以正确评估较低滑动速率的、大型活动断裂带的潜在地震危险性.
In order to know what is the seismicity background on which the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan, Sichuan, earthquake of May 12, 2008, occurred, we investigate the activities of strong and large earthquakes in the last 1000 to 2000 years before the Wenchuan earthquake, and the background seismicity during the last 20 years before the earthquake, in the middle segment of the North- South Seismic Belt and its near surroundings, based on a systematic analysis of historical and modern seismic data. Our study shows that: (1) No any M≥7 event had occurred on the Longmenshan fault zone at least in the last 1100 to 1700 years before 2008, suggesting that relative to other active fault zones (or sections) on the north and south, a seismic gap had formed along the Longmenshan fault zone for a long time before 2008, in which the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake occurred. (2) Since the 17th century, a sequence of 12 M_S6. 5 to 8. 0 earthquakes have occurred along the eastern Bayan Har Block boundary consisting of the larger part of Longmenshan fault zone, the Minjiang and Huya fault zones in northern Sichuan, as well as the Wenxian-Wudu fault zone in southern Gansu, which represents a near 400 years lasting process of seismic strain energy release with gradual accelerating. The 2008 M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake is one of two great earthquakes occurred already in this process. (3) During the last 20 years before the Wenchuan earthquake, no quiescence of background seismicity emerged along the middle and southern sections of the Longmenshan fault zone. Instead, the background seismicity there was somewhat higher than that on the Wenxian-Wudu fault zone of southern Gansu, where an M_S 8. 0 earthquake happened in 1879. (4) The size of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is much greater than that of the biggest historical event on the Longmenshan fault zone. This proves that potential seismic hazards along those large-scale active fault zones with relatively low slip-rates are not possible to be assessed correctly from the historical earthquake record that is available only for the past several hundreds or 1 to 2 thousand years.
In order to know what is the seismicity background on which the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan, Sichuan, earthquake of May 12, 2008, occurred, we investigate the activities of strong and large earthquakes in the last 1000 to 2000 years before the Wenchuan earthquake, and the background seismicity during the last 20 years before the earthquake, in the middle segment of the North- South Seismic Belt and its near surroundings, based on a systematic analysis of historical and modern seismic data. Our study shows that: (1) No any M≥7 event had occurred on the Longmenshan fault zone at least in the last 1100 to 1700 years before 2008, suggesting that relative to other active fault zones (or sections) on the north and south, a seismic gap had formed along the Longmenshan fault zone for a long time before 2008, in which the M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake occurred. (2) Since the 17th century, a sequence of 12 M_S6. 5 to 8. 0 earthquakes have occurred along the eastern Bayan Har Block boundary consisting of the larger part of Longmenshan fault zone, the Minjiang and Huya fault zones in northern Sichuan, as well as the Wenxian-Wudu fault zone in southern Gansu, which represents a near 400 years lasting process of seismic strain energy release with gradual accelerating. The 2008 M_S 8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake is one of two great earthquakes occurred already in this process. (3) During the last 20 years before the Wenchuan earthquake, no quiescence of background seismicity emerged along the middle and southern sections of the Longmenshan fault zone. Instead, the background seismicity there was somewhat higher than that on the Wenxian-Wudu fault zone of southern Gansu, where an M_S 8. 0 earthquake happened in 1879. (4) The size of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is much greater than that of the biggest historical event on the Longmenshan fault zone. This proves that potential seismic hazards along those large-scale active fault zones with relatively low slip-rates are not possible to be assessed correctly from the historical earthquake record that is available only for the past several hundreds or 1 to 2 thousand years.
引文
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[2] 王卫民,赵连锋,李娟等.四川汶川8． 0级地震震源过程.地球物理学报,2008,51(5) :1403-1410 Wang W M, Zhao L F, Li J, et al. Rupture process of the W_s8． 0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan, China. Chinese J. Geophys. (in Chinese), 2008 ,51(5) :1403-1410
[3] Ji C, Hayes G. Preliminary result of the May 12, 2008 M_w7． 9 eastern Sichuan, China earthquake. http://earthquake.usgs. gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/finite_ fault.php(2009-01-12)
[4] Nishimura N. Yagi Y. Rupture process for May 12, 2008 Sichuan earthquake (preliminary result). http://www. geol. tsukuba. ac.jp/~nisimura/20080512/(2008-06-11)
[5] 徐锡伟,闻学泽,叶建青等.汶川M_s8． 0地震地表破裂带及其发震构造.地震地质,2008,30(3) :597-629 Xu X W, Wen X Z, Ye J Q, et al. The M.S. 0 Wenchuan earthquake surface ruptures and its seismogenic structure. Geology and Seismology (in Chinese), 2008, 30(3) :597-629
[6] 朱介寿.汶川地震的岩石圈深部结构与动力学背景.成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2008,35(4) :348-356 Zhu J S. The Wenchuan earthquake occurrence background in deep structure and dynamics of lithosphere. Journal of Chengdu University of Technology (Science & Technology Edition) (in Chinese), 2008,35(4) :348-356
[7] 陈运泰,许力生,张勇等.2008年5月12日汶川特大地震震源特性分析报告.http://www.cea-igp.ac.cn/.(2008 05-26) Chen Y T, Xu L S, Zhang Y, et al. Analysis report on focal characteristics of the Wenchuan strong earthquake on May 12, 2008 (in Chinese). http://www. cea-igp. ac. cn/(2008-05-26)
[8] Ambraseys N N, Jackson J. Faulting associated with historical and recent earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean. Geophys J Int. 1998, 133:390-406
[9] Wen X Z, Ma S L, Xu X W, et al. Historical pattern and behavior of earthquake ruptures along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted-block, southwestern China.Physics Earth Planet Inter, 2008, 168:16-36
[10] Wells D L, Coppersmith K J. New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area and surface displacement. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. , 1994,84(4) :974-1002
[11] 国家地震局震害防御司(编).中国历史强震目录.北京:地 震出版社,1995． 1-514 Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, China Earthquake Administration eds. The Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes C in Chinese). Beijing: Seismologieal Press, 1995． 1-514
[12] 中国地震局震害防御司(编).中国近代地震目录.北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999． 1-637 Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention, China Earthquake Administration eds. The Catalogue of Chinese Modern Earthquakes (in Chinese). Beijing:China Science and Technology Press. 1999． 1-637
[13] 国家地震局地球物理研究所,复旦大学历史地理研究所.中国历史地震图集(远古至元时期).北京:中国地图出版社,1990． 1-174 Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. Institute of Historic Geography, Fudan University eds. The Atlas of Historic Earthquakes of China (The Period from Remote Antiquity to the Yuan Dynasty) (in Chinese). Beijing: China Cartographic Publishing House. 1990． 1-194
[14] 国家地震局地球物理研究所,复旦大学历史地理研究所.中国历史地震图集(明时期).北京:中国地图出版社,1990． 1-194 Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. Institute of Historic Geography, Fudan University eds. The Atlas of Historic Earthquakes of China (The Ming Dynasty Period) (in Chinese). Beijing:China Cartographic Publishing House, 1990． 1-194
[15] 国家地震局地球物理研究所,复旦大学历史地理研究所.中国历史地震图集(清时期).北京:中国地图出版社,1990． 1-244 Institute of Geophysics. China Earthquake Administration, Institute of Historic Geography, Fudan University eds. The Atlas of Historic Earthquakes of China (The Qing Dynasty Period) (in Chinese). Beijing:China Cartographic Publishing House, 1990． 1-244
[16] 四川地震资料汇编编辑组.四川地震资料汇编(第一卷).成都:四川人民出版社,1980． 1-576 Editor Group of the Data Compilation of Earthquakes in Sichuan eds. A Data Compilation for Earthquakes in Sichuan (Book 1) (in Chinese). Chengdu; Sichuan People' s Publishing House, 1980． 1-576
[17] 四川地震资料汇编编辑组.四川地震资料汇编(第二卷).成都:四川人民出版社,1981． 1-224 Editor Group of the Data Compilation of Earthquakes in Sichuan eds. A Data Compilation fur Earthquakes in Sichuan (Book 2) (in Chinese). Chengdu: Sichuan People's Publishing House, 1981． 1-224
[18] 四川省地方志编辑委员会.四川地方志-地震志,成都:四川人民出版社,1998． 1-382 Compiling Committee of the Local Annals of Sichuan Province. Annals of Sichuan Province-Book for Earthquakes (in Chinese). Chengdu: Sichuan People's Publishing House. 1998． 1-382
[19] 国家地震局兰州地震研究所.甘肃省地震资料汇编.北京:地震出版社,1989． 9-10 Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration eds. A Data Compilation for Earthquakes in Gansu Province (in Chinese). Beijing:Seismological Press, 1989． 9-10
[20] 闻学泽,徐锡伟,郑荣章等.甘孜-玉树断裂的平均滑动速率与近代大地震破裂.中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):199-208 Wen X Z,Xu X W,Zheng R Z,et al. Average slip-rate and recent large earthquake ruptures along the Ganzi-Yushu fault. Science in China (Series D), 2003,46(Suppl.):276-288
[21] 徐锡伟,闻学泽,于贵华等.川西理塘断裂带平均滑动速率、地震破裂分段与复发特征.中国科学(D),2005,35(6) :540-551 Xu X W, Wen X Z, Yu G H, et al. Average slip rate, earthquake rupturing segmentation and recurrence behavior on the Litang fault zone, western Sichuan province, China. Science in China (Series D), 2005 ,48(8) :1183-1196
[22] Wen X Z, Yi G X, Xu X W. Background and precursory seismicities along and surrounding the Kunlun fault before the M_s8． 1, 2001, Kokoxili earthquake, China. J Asian Earth Sciences, 2007,30(1) . 63-72
[23] 袁道阳,雷中生,何文贵等.公元前186年甘肃武都地震考证与发震构造探讨.地震学报,2007,29(6) :654-663 Yuan D Y, Lei Z S, He W G, et al. Textual research on the 186BC Wudu earthquake in Gansu province and causative structure discussion. Acta Seismologica Sinica (in Chinese) , 2007,29(6) :654-663
[24] 袁道阳,雷中生,葛伟鹏等.对143年甘谷西7级地震史料的新见解.西北地震学报,2007,29(1) :58-63 Yuan D Y, Lei Z S, Ge W P, et al. A new opinion about the west of Gangu M7． 0 earthquake in 143 A. D. in Gansu province. Northwestern Seismological Journal (in Chinese) , 2007, 29(1) :58-63
[25] 徐锡伟,闻学泽,陈桂华等.巴颜喀拉地块东部龙日坝断裂带的发现及其大地构造意义.中国科学(D辑),2008,38(5) :529-542 Xu X W, Wen X Z, Chen G H, et al. Discovery of the Longriba faults, eastern part of the Bayankela tectonic block and its geodynamic implications. Science in China (Series D), 2008, 51(9) :1209-1223
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